JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 10/24/18

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Jay

1:53

How much if any, do AZL level prospects have in terms of trade value? Asking specifically about players in Cleveland's system like Valera and Rocchio, since their system lacks a lot of high-end talent at the upper levels to use in trades this offseason.

Kiley McDaniel

1:55

Not every team scouts those leagues enough or trusts the TrackMan enough to really pay a lot in trades, but that changes once there's a full season in Low-A of performance and the associated data. Referenced this in who will win the next 5 WS article. I think those guys have much wider appeal starting around the deadline next summer and going forward

Nico

1:55

Has Hoerner or Justin Steele's AFL performance shifted your valuations for either of them? Have seen various reports on Steele's velocity/stuff.

Kiley McDaniel

1:55

You can ask Eric for details since I haven't seen him, but he wasn't super enthused by Steele. We already had Hoerner pretty high, but sounds like he's been solid

Slurve

1:58

When top 1st round prospects "fail", other than injury, what are some of the causes (given how much research and exposure they usually provide, etc.)

Kiley McDaniel

1:59

Being less athletic usually via weight gain and having tools/velo back up, not being able to lay off/identify off speed pitches ("can't hit"), awful makeup that impacted work ethic

Frank

1:59

Does Anthony Kay have mid-rotation upside, or is he more likely to top out as a 4/5 starter?

Kiley McDaniel

2:00

Quinn

2:00

Does Christin Stewart have a realistic shot at 30 homers in his peak? What kind of power do you see out of him in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel

2:01

Sure, 25-30 is reasonable, but the bar at DH is so high that he has to do that and also get on base

Buster

2:01

Which team do you think is best situated to cash in its prospects this winter in a big trade (ala Milwaukee last year)?

Kiley McDaniel

2:02

Atlanta is positioned but I don't think they're itching to empty the cupboard. Tampa Bay is crazy deep and has a good club, so they seem more likely to try it just to consolidate into fewer assets like STL did last year with Ozuna

Greyson

2:02

Keith Law said the Tigers were among the teams most far behind analytically. Do you agree, and if so are they at least moving in the right direction relative to other teams?

Kiley McDaniel

2:02

They were definitely bottom 5 when Avila took over and they are moving in the right direction, but it's a reaaaaly long way from bottom 5 to top 5

Rox Fan

2:03

Odds that the Rockies can extend Arenado this winter? And if they cannot get an extension they should trade him, right?

Kiley McDaniel

2:04

Discussed this situation recently in a podcast (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-...) and i think he would've signed an extension already if he was open to that. I think he wants to test the market and with Story/Rodgers/Hampson, the Rockies have cheaper replacements

But if they think they're gonna make the playoffs again in 2019 and want to try to keep him and will take the comp picks if they don't...then they'll just hold

Frank

2:05

Whens the new top prospect list dropping?

Kiley McDaniel

2:05

Post WS. We're already working on them, so a few will be done before they come out.

Anthony

2:05

Can scouts at all forecast pitcher injury risk based on the eye test, or is that something entirely random or only possible with biomechanical tracking?

Kiley McDaniel

2:06

Can't imagine it's any better than a monkey throwing darts if that's all you're using. Throwing in medical history, velocity, biomechanical, etc. does a much better job and still nobody really knows

Matt

2:06

No question, I just love your "As Yet Untitled" podcast with Longenhagen - thanks!

Kiley McDaniel

2:06

This guy gets it

Lefty

2:07

Are the Giants just covering all their bases by kicking every tire, or is the looming shadow of Sabean staying in the organization dissuading bright candidates from taking the job?

Kiley McDaniel

2:07

Don't think that's the case. Sounds like they want a new head honcho and Sabean will be stepping back

But if ownership wants a winner and doesn't want to rebuild, some people may not want to step into that

Ghost of Ned Yost

2:08

I know these questions are difficult but I'm trying to build a model to figure out what teams place the most value on ceiling especially when it comes to starting pitching. Who are some arms outside the top say 75-80 that could become an ace caliber if everything clicks? Like the DL Halls, Pearsons and Matt Mannings types.

Kiley McDaniel

2:09

Outside of the top 100: Cole Winn, Shane Baz, Riley Pint, Luis Medina, Mason Denaburg...there's really not that many.

2:10

This is another topic that we have some stuff to share with the readers during the offseason list process

Jo-Nathan

2:10

What should the Orioles do with their international cap now that they whiffed on the Mesa’s and Gaston?

Kiley McDaniel

2:11

Sign 20 guys for an average of 200K and you just spent $4M to give yourself much better rookie ball talent

Stevil

2:11

If Atlanta trades pitching prospects to address holes on the field, who do you believe is most likely to be dangled?

Kiley McDaniel

2:12

Would not be surprised is Newcomb is the top name that gets dangled

Nicholas

2:12

What did you think of the Mets considering a couple player agents as potential GMs? Do you think agents in general would be good baseball ops personnel?

Kiley McDaniel

2:15

Unless I know specifically otherwise, I would assume any agent with no front office experience would be overwhelmed in a GM job

UNLESS they are self-aware enough to recognize that ahead of time and surround themselves with smart people that they can delegate to and do more of a CEO decision maker type thing. In that case, I think some agents could possibly succeed. Not sure any of them have that kind of humility right out of the chute, from my experiences with that sort.

2:15

If you're a rebuilding team like the Tigers and Reds, do any FA pitchers fly under the radar that might be worth a chance and a deadline flip next July? I remember all last year everyone raved about Chatwood's uptick in velo and spin (woops) and I'm wondering if there's someone underrated that's seen positive trends that might get a flyer.

Kiley McDaniel

2:16

Steady veteran relievers is the best demographic to invest in FA for a rebuilding team interested in flips

Or buy low/one year deal/prove it types with some upside. Rich Hill back in the day is an example of this.

Jo-Nathan

2:16

I know a lot of J2 news seems to come out late November, when can we expect to see the 2019 J2 list added to THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel

2:17

February at the earliest (when I see many of them in the DR), still probably within a month or so of J2

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