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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/13/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Hello from ATL! Scout is patrolling the backyard and Eric and I are readying ourselves for the NYC live event and the first batch of team prospect lists
12:33
Don't know if he's mentioned this yet, but we'll be doing lists by spring training pod, since lots of pro coverage groups teams that way and it makes it easier to talk to each source once in the offseason instead of circling back a bunch of times
12:34
and I just noticed it appears to be sold out already
so I'm just being a tease now
here's the last thing i contributed to: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/
the free agency preview, with my own predictions for contracts
12:37
sorry, the dog couldn't decide if she wanted inside or outside and also i needed a snack refresh
to your questions:
Wicho, Jr.
12:39
Is Odorizzi close enough behind Wheeler that the price difference might make him a better option?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Wheeler is better, but since they're both 29, if Wheeler is 4x20 and Odorizzi is 3x15, I'd take Odorizzi. Wheeler has already had TJ as well.
12:41
that extra year is a big risk factor for starters in their 30s that aren't frontline
that's also probably the last area i'd spend $50M guaranteed, on a non-elite bulk SP
Jon G
12:41
What impact is Willson Contreras' poor framing likely to have on his trade market? Will he be treated as a 2-3 WAR player, or does the bat give him a market that's well above those numbers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Treated as more of a 2 than a 3
12:42
really limits the flexibility for an NL team
securitymlb
12:43
What is proper punishment of Astros and their illegal stealing signs using technology? Will be more harsher than Redsox or Braves got?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
Depends on the scope and involvement of various parties
I know this isn't a new thought, but the Taubman stuff and this stuff isn't surprising in the least.
12:44
The Astros are run by a former McKinsey guy (the top management consulting practice), they employ McKinsey for internal reviews, Taubman fits that type to a T even if he did something slightly different.
These people, broadly speaking, are never short on resume or even results, often push things to a breaking point in terms of loopholes, taking advantage of situations where a lack of morality is a benefit.
12:45
Doesn't mean that, for instance, Luhnow ordered the code red or whatever. It just isn't surprising, because it fits a type and almost everything they've done fits that type.
12:46
Also, Eric and I have specifically heard a lot a hearsay about culture in that office and sign stealing stuff, specifically
So it's not just profiling people on their background, which I know can get you in trouble when taken too far
Aaron
12:46
Who are some major-league comps for Brayan Rocchio? Great glove at shortstop, young for his level, better hit than power but starting to show some lift -- what can this profile turn into?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
A 5 or soft 6
buzz
12:47
How crazy would it be to put Patiño over May, Mize, Whitley, etc as the top RHP prospect in the game?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Not crazy, though not sure he gets all the way up there. He'll be close. A club told us their analytics had Patino with the top stuff in the minors.
Fangraphs reader
12:47
How does the Astros sign stealing allegations differ from what the Red Sox were punished for in 2017?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Again, not clear yet, but at the very least, it appears it came after the Red Sox were caught and MLB was warned that this was serious. Similar to how the Braves got caught after the Red Sox were caught and the league was warned about int'l stuff. I guess be first is the message here?
William
12:49
Who do the Nats pivot to if they lose Rendon to replace his offense?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Not sure, but my instinct was to say pivot to video but also I'd like to be first to point out there's a 2020 eligible SS at Ole Miss named Anthony Servideo
so, I claim the "double play pivots to (Ser)video" puns
12:50
he's probably not a top 2 round guy, so I don't think he'll be high profile enough to get headline puns
Fangraphs reader
12:50
You mentioned the other day that Wander Franco originally agreed to a different deal, but that changed.  Was that original deal also with the Rays?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Nope! more on this soon
Neal
12:53
Kiley! You’ve probably answered this before, but do you take an organization’s track record of developing certain types of players into account when determining FV and prospect rankings? Would, for example, Yankees pitchers be more favorably projected over Cubs pitchers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
We do not, but we're more likely to change quickly when an org has a track record of "fixing" that specific kind of guy
JR
12:53
Any chance that THE BOARD can show a position of SP or RP instead of RHP or LHP?  We already can see what hand they throw with.  It would be extremely useful to see if you project them as a SP or RP, just like you project positions for hitters.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
We thought about doing that, but the amount of guys who are stone-cold SP or RP vs. some chance of both was such that it would seem somewhat random
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