JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/13/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:54

Oh and also, we have a seasonal pumpkin-spiced board for the Premier 12 tourney, including a number of players not on any pro/draft/J2 boards currently: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-premier12/summary?s...

Gary

12:55

I know Robert Puason *could* have a Luciano-like rookie season. How likely do you think it would be? J2 guys with an FV45 or better on signing day seem to have a really strong track record.

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

Yeah I'd say he's got a pretty good shot to slide up to 45+ or 50 before the end of the 2020 season. Maybe 50-60%? Pitch selection is the knock at this point, but he hasn't been seen a ton lately, so it isn't a strong signal.

Bob

12:56

BREAKING: Cubs will name Dan Kantrovitz VP of scouting. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

Sounded like CHC was looking for a new scouting czar more than a scouting director necessarily and that makes some sense. I would guess CHC generally pays better as well. Kantro had a pretty good track record running the draft with STL, has analytics and scouting background.

A different Matt

12:59

How many teams can actually afford to take on Betts’s salary? While he has theoretical surplus value at that salary level, It’s probably close to what his AAV will be in his free agent deal. While every team competing next year should want him, his market actually seems surprisingly limited.

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Literally every team can afford him if they want to.

Jeff

1:00

I've heard Richard Gallardo was 92-95 during his very brief NWL callup (multi inning relief outings). There's even a clip of him blacking 93 for a K in a 3-2 count out there. Where would a guy like him rank among HS pitchers in the 2020 draft?

Kiley McDaniel

1:01

Back half of the 1st round talents look pretty similar: Quinn Priester, George Kirby, Brennan Malone, Jack Leiter

Verne

1:01

After 1 year in the Brodie Era what is the industry consensus on the Mets? A mess? improving? an improving mess?

Kiley McDaniel

1:01

It's been better than expected, but you can only make so much headway with that ownership group heavily involved.

Fox

1:01

Is there any chance the Rays deal Brandon Lowe this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

They still have so much bulk, anyone COULD move, but a young performer that's locked up and can fit at multiple positions but also has been banged up lately seems like the least likely type to move

Jesus montero

1:02

Are prep lhp that much less risky than right handers?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

Not inherently, but their stuff requirements are a little lower, so there's more margin for error. Thus, RHP tend to throw harder and thus, all things being equal, are more likely to get hurt.

Jeff

1:05

The Cubs have been choosing basketball as their second sport lately (the Morel brothers, Brennen Davis, DJ Herz)...Any opinions on good second sports for baseball players? I've been thinking more pitchers should swim competitively as yoots

Kiley McDaniel

1:06

Scouts tend to prefer football and wrestling, since there's inherent discipline from playing at a high level in more military-oriented sports and not being afraid of contact usually speaks well to makeup in general

Broad generalities, obviously.

For a bigger guy like Brett Baty, hoops was good since it helps with flexibility/footwork. Soccer would also help that kind of prospect

1:07

Football/hoops tend to attract the best athletes, so there also some selection bias.

Quentin

1:07

Do you see any issue with organizations hiring Driveline employees but allowing them to continue to work for the company? Seems like that kind of arrangement can only benefit Driveline and hurt the orgs

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

They have that kind of leverage when there's a limited pool of coaches with track record of a certain progressive type. Two weeks in a row with a supply/demand question about baseball labor.

1/30/2019

1:08

Matt Chapman over/under 6 fWAR in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

I'll take under on anyone not named Trout, just on injury risk alone

Jeff

1:08

You guys have been on Dylan Carlson before it was cool. Now that he's broken out into the mainstream, what kind of ceiling are we talking? I'm a Cubs fan and they need fun opponents to beat and then take from moving forward so I'm not not rooting for him to be this gen's Lance Berkman

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

It's not a ton of power impact, more like 25 HR than 35-40 HR and it's probably a corner OF fit, so the upside isn't sky high, but also the baseball is weird and maybe robots will be throwing the baseballs soon so WTF who knows ya know?

Astros

1:10

Need to lose some draft picks.

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

That would appear to be a starting point

Daniel

1:10

Why don't teams pay for framing if its so valuable? ie. Tyler Flowers?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

It appears to decline quickly when the body breaks down and there's lots of injury risk at the position. Jason Castro looked like a stone cold pay for framing candidate and he was just ok. Cervelli fell apart right after he broke out.

1:11

There's also a good bit of variance year-to-year inherently.

A young super-athletic guy like Realmuto would seem to be the exception. And Grandal's unimpeachable recent track record is another. Posey has also fallen apart.

Brad

1:12

Any rumblings about big int'l FA that aren't eligible to sign right now but will be before the end of this signing period?

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

Cuban SS Yiddi Cappe is a big name that has a deal for the next period (we think $3.5M) so he could be stolen, but doesn't sound likely. There's also a handful of Taiwanese prospects out there that are on THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa...

1:13

And Norge Vera will likely be cleared during this period: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cuban-right-hander-norge...

Lil Cespedes also may emerge (he's already defected) to be a guy for this period

RAndoM

1:13

Are you going to have any coverage of the Trainer Partnership International Showcase this week?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

Eric is presently there, so ask him in the chat

BRUHHHH

1:14

Can I have a family and work in baseball? Kind of a joke but don't see a lot of "family man" types working in the game

Kiley McDaniel

1:14

Yes? I mean having a family and being a family man appear to be different things to you. There's a lot of 60-70 hours a week type jobs at the levels you may need to be to support a family

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