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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/14/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:11
Hello! Movers just left so I'm mostly settled in here in Atlanta. A quick rundown of all the content we've been publishing since the last chat:
All findable here at the prospects main page: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/
12:13
I introduced our updated prospect asset value concept in the context of a JT Realmuto trade, after last week's chat was chock full of JTR questions: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/
prospect graduations from the 2018 season: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/2018-prospect-graduations/
12:14
Craig Edwards' 3-part series where he tells you how we put a asset dollar value on every prospect in baseball: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/
then applied that to UPDATED FARM RANKINGS: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/
12:15
I capitalize that b/c we've never done that here at FG before since we were waiting to do it in this way...and people in chat are always asking about this
new podcast with full AFL reports on every notable prospects from Eric, free agency preview and a Twins scout that sued over age discrimination w/Sheryl Ring: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-...
And finally
to coincide with the beginning of list season, which started today with the cardinals: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-40-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/
(catches breath)
We also have a new Giants GM, new Orioles GM and further losses in the Houston front office to discuss
12:23
and i just got a phone call that i'm wrapping up
12:25
okay now we can get going
Matt
12:25
WHY HASN'T MY FAVORITE TEAM BEEN COVERED IN THE TOP PROSPECTS SERIES YET AND WHY DO YOU HATE THEM
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
Great place to start
mark
12:25
Alot of writers are saying there's no way the Reds trade Suarez, but they are extremely deep in 3B prospects so wouldn't it make sense to move one of them - possibly trade in Suarez for max value?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
The Reds appear to be trying to take the step forward sooner than later and are collecting good players to add to the core--Votto, Suarez, Senzel, etc.--including possibly spending more than you'd think on free agent pitching
So I can't see them doing that
Scott TINSTAAPP
12:26
Kiley!  If Wander Franco keeps hitting like he has so far, is there any way he makes it to the big leagues by 2020 or are we looking at 2021 at the earliest given how the Rays slow roast their guys?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
He hasn't proven yet that he isn't on the Juan Soto plan. Cannot rule out 2019 on merit, but the Rays are conservative with those things, so I'd probably say the first reasonable date would be 11 days into 2020.
ryan
12:27
tell us about a player you were the strongest advocate for who ended up being a GUY.  vice versa tell us who you were all about then busted
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Seems like the one that's stuck to me most in the internet days has been Albies, in terms of being early on a guy. Was early on Acuna, but I was with the Braves then. One I was most wrong about was Gary Sanchez, altho my case was that he very well may not be long-term catcher and was streaky, may not age well athletically, so I wasn't totally off base.
dj whipdick
12:28
Biggest surprise free agent signing?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Nate Eovaldi over $50M is in play and I think it would surprise some. Jed Lowrie has a better 2-year platform performance than Zobrist did when he got 4 for 53 at the same age, so he could sneak up on people too
Joe
12:30
What’s the difference between Director of Player Personell and Director of Pro Scouting?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
DPS is running the department of the scouts that cover minor/major league games. DPP is more of a high level scout, since that typically doesn't involved running a department, but going from one to the other and being a top evaluator in many of them. Teams can use that title differently, tho.
john cale
12:31
i find it hard to believe the white sox would trade their farm for atlanta's lack of elite talent
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
12 dudes in the top 115 is a lack of elite talent?
12:33
You can quibble with our rankings, but the dollar values are empirically derived from what prospects have turned into. There's also a margin of error where the difference between $369M and $405M isn't much. If we end up moving a couple 50's to 55's in the winter lists, that covers the whole gap
12:34
So, like a 10% difference in two farms isn't us saying one is clearly better than the other, we just lean one way
Ryan
12:34
with the elimination of pitching roles and reduction in total innings, does that make it more likely that teams will be willing to bet higher in the draft on guys with great stuff but "reliever deliveries"?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
It's been happening the last few years. HS pitchers with head whacks and now stuff used to go to college and now they tend to sign. Hans Crouse, Jayson Schroeder, Matt Sauer, etc.
12:36
3 years ago, Zach Hess (JR at LSU) was that type and didn't sign
Mr. DE
12:36
Two questions about THE BOARD: Where is spin rate data coming from? And is there a schedule for team top lists to be released this off-season; how frequently will new orgs get posted?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Some we gather directly, like we have HS/college data that's public (TM website of twitter account fo the college, etc.) or MLB appearances. The rest we get from teams
12:37
We don't have a schedule for lists, but they'll come fast than past years since we were updating the lists all throughout the year, so there's less work to be done now
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