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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/21/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:03
Here I am, a bit ahead of schedule given the vagaries of holiday family blah blah blah
I wrote up the Paxton trade prospects yesterday here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-...
and we have the STL list up, PIT list is already done, coming Monday and here's the primer on the changes to THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019...
Tumbler, Whiskey
11:04
You were brilliantly composed on MLB Network yesterday. Nice job. That is all.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:04
Thanks! Yes, I also did that.
Dylan
11:05
Who has more trade value between Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo? Is it ridiculous to ask this question?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:05
I think they're both 2.0 to 3.0 WAR guys in the short-term, so not crazy. Both are capable of multiple positions
Tom
11:05
Who ends up being better: puk or luzardo?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:06
I'll lean Luzardo, but it's close
KD
11:06
Do you have a formula (or rule of thumb) as to the relationship between prospect values?  In other words, are three 40 FV prospects > = < one 50 FV prospect?  And similar...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:07
I don't, but mostly because we didn't have the empirical research to do that, so, using this link, here's some shorthand: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-ou...
11:09
60/65 FV, roughly $60M
55 FV, roughly $40M
50 FV, roughly roughly $25M
45 FV, roughly $6M
40 FV, roughly $2M
11:10
in general, if you want to know how many 45's equal a 60, the math says 10, but I think you'd want more than exactly $60M over 10 players for $60M in one player...so then it's guessing how much you have to overpay by, which we've guessed is around 20%. So maybe 12?
Slurve
11:10
If DiPoto's angle on the Paxton trade was acquiring more higher floor/closer to MLB dudes than younger prospects, will that be his focus if Diaz and Haniger (Segura, etc.) get moved?  If that's the case then what sort of player(s) would Diaz command?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:11
I heard that SEA had other competitive, possibly better offers by public prospect rankings, or a better headliner, but there was a longer time horizon to the big leagues or more risk in general and they sounded comparable given that criteria
Joser
11:11
How much disagreement is there in player evaluation from different team's scouts? I.e., will one scout put a 50 hit tool on a player and another tosses a 60 or 65, or are scouting grades generally pretty consistent?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:12
Generally, especially when you're dealing with scouts that have some context, consider past performance they didn't see if their look was really good/bad, etc. Some scouts will throw out 60 for a guy that should be a 50 if he was hot when they saw him, but a good scout will get close to the same grades as other good scouts
Lilith
11:12
If you're serving cranberry sauce from a can, do you mash it up? Or do you allow it to remain in its natural, unnaturally ridged, can-shaped glory?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:13
Make it from scratch. Throw a bag of cranberries in a saucepan with sugar and you're already ahead of the canned stuff
Amber
11:13
If you could only have one appateaser  for the rest of your life, what would it be?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:15
had some poutine yesterday so that's top of mind, a complex charcuterie plate is a solid choice or (puts on Oakley blades) anything at BDubs, bro
11:17
Sorry, I'm now finding all the questions my family is asking while sitting here looking at me
Justin
11:17
What are your thoughts on two-time "Cistulli's Guy," Pablo Reyes?  Effective platoon guy?  Something more? Less?  Good/bad defense?  Longenhagen mentioned that his good start is backed by batted ball data in the Luplow trade writeup.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:17
Pretty good utility guy that's already there, higher than you think he'd be on the PIT list
Chellsee
11:19
Thoughts between Macarons, Macaroons, and Macron?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:19
This was a big discussion around the dinner table last night
11:20
My family also confused Colbert, Trevor Noah and John Oliver somehow
MZ
11:20
Are you hearing any interest in making further changes to the draft in the next CBA?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:20
It's always a second tier topic, but I'm sure there will be a tweak, most likely around pre-draft physicals
Nils
11:21
Hi Kiley, thanks for doing a chat today.  Who has the highest ceiling among the Pitt OF prospects?  Swaggerty, Lolo, Mitchell, Oliva?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:21
Swaggerty by a lot. 60 raw, 65 speed, 60 arm. Very rare combo, just needs to dial in the approach at the plate
Sparrow
11:21
Who is your favorite long term choice between: dumplings and bao
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:22
The best bao is the best option here
Holt MaGroin
11:23
What's your favorite Thanksgiving side dish
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:23
Depending on the execution, mac n cheese, sweet potato casserole or dressing/stuffing
P
11:23
The Astros price for Paxton was rumored to be Whitley, which they balked at. The ask from the Astros seems to be significantly higher than the actual return they got from the Yankees. Is that just the division surcharge the Mariners were asking for? If not why didn’t they wait a bit longer to get a tier higher prospect they were targeting?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:25
This happens sometimes when you're on the team side. We have Yordan Alvarez ranked close to Justus Sheffield, but if SEA prefers Sheffield, they then say it's Tucker or Whitley or no deal. And that can be frustrating. Not sure that's what happened, but it wouldn't surprise me. Happened at times when I was ATL when the ask was Acuna or no deal, when Acuna was a crazy ask but the team making the demand thought he was the only guy better than the deal on the table.
Tumbler, Whiskey
11:26
Criticism is the nature of the beast, but I've seem some of Mr. Edwards' prospect valuations. Not because the figures are off, but given the (perceived) somewhat cold, unnuanced nature of the idea in general. But then we see the Paxton deal and the math (Paxton's surplus value & the prospect values) pencil out pretty well. Can you shed some light on whether teams are actually using this type of value calculation in their trades? Or is it more like, hey, we like these three guys and this feels fair for our guy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
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