JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/7/18

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/7/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Hello all from the almost empty Atlanta house, which will hopefully be filled by next week's chat

12:14

ICYMI, we posted a top 50 free agents thing that I did the rankings/predictions for: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/

And then all the stuff Cistulli wouldn't let in the formal rankings, including buzz on timetables and under the radar spending teams went here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe...

I'll have one more offseason-focused article probably going up tomorrow and I'm editing a podcast with some FA talk as well

12:15

Now to your questions, which also appear to be offseason-focused

Tommy N.

12:16

Do you think a Donaldson three year deal to the Padres makes sense?

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

3 year deal is what I projected and I think makes the most sense, but not sure if he fits with SD or really, on a larger scale, what SD is doing with the lineup. Mejia (C, maybe backup/supersub), Hosmer (1B), Urias (2B, maybe SS), Margot (CF) seems like the locks.

12:19

Then where do you put Wil Myers? Is Hedges/Mejia the C tandem or do you upgrade? I assume you acquire a SS and Spangenberg is a bench bat/Urias insurance. Renfroe, Franmil, et al in the OF could all best fit as part-time wait-and-see types or backups or traded, though Franmil seems ahead of Renfroe.

12:20

I wrote that there's talk SD may make a splash and spend some money, particularly in the Eovaldi/Keuchel/Corbin high end range and the kids are coming with Tatis, Paddack, Logan Allen and Naylor all probably showing up at some point

12:21

Is this the time to spend on another Hosmer-like investment or take a breath and see what you have, then spend next year?

I could see SD either being a little too aggressive or standing pat. To be clear, I think standing pat and addings some lower investment FAs is the right path at this point

12:22

So, I guess my answer is no?

Larry

12:22

So if the Marlins want a position player and pitcher from Atlanta for Realmuto, what does that look like? Riley and Soroka?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Those two probably make the most sense, and if you had to add a third piece, it wouldn't be much

Lazzaro Da Fietta

12:23

Dodgers' K. Ruiz and A. Verdugo to Marlins for Realmuto. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

I think LA says no and tries to get him for a little less, but they first need to find out if Grandal is taking the QO

but that isn't way off

Wilt Chamberlain's cousin

12:23

Myers, Naylor, Lauer and Hedges for Segura Paxton and Colome. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Nowhere near enough. Paxton and Segura were in the 40's on the trade value list. Hedges/Lauer/Naylor don't have a ton of trade value, more secondary pieces for big deals

West Coast Wreck

12:24

Do you get the sense the Marlins are just as concerned with perception rather than talent when making trades. They seem to be after known names instead of best talent in trade rumors for PR reasons.

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

They are more focused on PR than the average team, absolutely. When you're rebuilding you kinda have to be, since you still need to sell tickets and have the fanbase interested or else revenue goes way down. That said, Miami has some perception issues in their market and in the media/industry so they're more aware of it than even an average rebuilding club

CJ

12:25

All these rumors and speculation around trading Soroka. The Braves wouldn't do that would they?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

In the right deal where they deem they're getting fair value in return, I think he is.

Lilith

12:26

Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan... All of these guys were once top prospects and they've all failed to live up to expectations. The first question is why do you think the Reds have failed to fully develop these once promising pitching prospects? The second question is, do you think hiring Derek Johnson could lead to them possibly salvaging their careers and living up to the promise they once had? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Don't know enough about the specific issues each guy has worked on to say there's a common cause, but DJ is well respected in the game, so that's a good move

Captain Moonlight

12:27

What’s going on with the Astros’ analytics department?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

Top guys are choosing to leave. That's not a good thing. You'll hear a lot of stories/theories, but that's the part we can all agree on.

Captain Moonlight

12:28

Besides just lots of years/money/opt outs, what sorts of creative contract wrinkles could teams add to sweeten the deal for Harper/Machado?

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

I mentioned market size/endorsement chances/fun place to live, state income tax and team quality as some value adds that aren't in the topline numbers here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe...

Bees Knees

12:30

My guess is Boras/Harper will be seeking the most guaranteed money and the highest AAV, and it won't matter who pays. I'm predicting 10/$330M with the first five years at $38M/season, and the last five years at $28M/season, with an opt out after year 5. That sounds... reasonable, no?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

I could see that. There's a lot of options for how to construct the deal to both get the buzzy numbers high and also maximize earnings

Brady

12:30

Would doubling every bonus slot amount in the draft be a reasonable alternative to the current structure? In that case, would Casey mize be worth $14 million?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

The value drops off faster than the slots do. I'd say Mize is somewhere in the 30's. We actually have a piece coming about this very topic next week

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:32

Wright+Riley+Wilson+Teheran+Allard for Gallo+Leclerc. Braves get their corner OF and closer and dump Teheran's salary. Rangers double the number of top 100 prospects in their system. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

LOL just reminding you guys what the average trade proposal in the queue looks like

billsaints

12:33

CC for $8 mil. Yanks must be happy with that in a 'that's one less thing to worry about, know what I'm gonna get' kind of way.

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

And, free of the self-imposed salary cap, the bad scenario is you acquire pitching and bump him out of the top 5, and he's an $8M long man with a loaded rotation and a huge payroll...which isn't a problem. Okay, I guess not getting any more pitchers would be a bigger problem

Rays Fans

12:34

Hey there-a Kiley, first time long time. Is there enough middle-infield depth for the Rays to put together a package for Realmuto that doesn't involve giving up Franco, Sanchez, Honeywell, or one of their first round arms from 2018?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

Article for tomorrow is about this topic and this exact question is addressed. The answer is probably not!

Adam

12:35

Hunter Renfroe for Johan Carmago make any sense with Austin Riley on the way for the Braves?

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