JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/7/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Nope! It's not clear Renfroe is good.

Bees Knees

12:36

Would a Kyle Tucker-centered package be too much for J.T. Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Apparently my Realmuto article is exactly what the people want

Jake

12:36

Trevor Bauer said some stupid stuff on twitter about his and Kluber's trade value. Are teams factoring his difficult "character" when they make a bid for him? Or are there even teams that don't want him at all?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Some care more than others, but the shorter term the contract and the better your team, generally-speaking, the less you care

____

12:37

BVW said he considers Alonso to be an above-average defensive 1B. I know that's outside the industry consensus now, but does Alonso have a chance of getting there eventually?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

I mean nothing is impossible, but that might be

Shameless Cardinals Homer

12:38

Who is the best/worst prospect of Malcom Nunez, Nolan Gorman, Elehuris Montero and WHY?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

That list is coming I believe next week, but you can look here for a sneak peek of about what that list will look like: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=stl

Shor

12:38

How does Farhan's hiring in SF change the org

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

Bigly. This would appear to lead to a top-down reevaluation of everything in the org, which could lead to Astros-level progressive/analytics embrace to more of a Dodgers/Yankees let's use all of resources and try to balance both approaches, with the latter far more likely. Could be lots of front office/personnel changes or very few and some more gentle adjustments over the next few years.

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:41

Two outrageous BVW comments on MLBTR today:

1. No player is off-limits but the topic of payroll has not even been broached in any detail with ownership
2. Tebow could make the MLB roster "if he wows us" at Spring Training (BVW was Tebow's agent)

Kiley McDaniel

12:42

1. BVW could mean that specific number weren't discussed but "keeping it about where it is" or "modest increases" is enough for early planning
2. This is embarrassing b/c Tebow isn't even close to earning this on merit. If you're rebuilding and want a distraction, then sure. BVW is saying that they are competing AND he was just Tebow's agent, so this looks really bad given his other statements.

12:47

I tend to think BVW is just being charitable and saying "anything could happen" and Tebow just happens to be a former client, but he's also tasked with two main focuses early on:

1. Appearing truly being impartial toward NYM players he used to rep vs. ones he didn't
2. Improving the perception of the Mets in general

This actively hurts both of those pursuits and BVW could've easily just said something generic like "every player will be given an opportunity commensurate with their performance" or whatever and accomplish both things. Unforced error when messaging is supposed to be a strength for him and the Wilpons care about media coverage/appearances.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:47

Do you think Harper is looking for opt-outs in his deal? When you're looking for 10+ years, 400MM+ dollars, I can't imagine any universe where you opt out of a contract like that.

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

For huge deals, teams will be hesitant to guarantee every dollar that Harper/Boras thinks they deserve and could deserve. So get the important years (first 5 or so) at the correct number that everyone can agree on, then get an opt out so you can go get paid again if you're MVP-level 5 years from now, but if you go down the tubes, you've got another $150M coming. No one is expecting Harper to be MVP level 5 years from now, so he won't get paid like that, but it's more possible for him than almost any free agent since A-Rod, so you need to be flexible in case it happens.

Rick Sanchez

12:49

Your guess for first free agent who signs for more than $50m guaranteed?

Kiley McDaniel

12:50

I'll guess Corbin. It's likely one of the pitchers and Eovaldi's market will be much deeper, so may take longer to sort out.

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:51

Can you try to describe the Fangraphs work culture in three words?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

shirtless cistulli ugh

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:52

Welcome to Atlanta! Think we could see a good ol' southern FG meet up sometime?

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

Maybe? What's the interest like for an event like that?

12:53

Meetup

I would come meet Kiley at a place in ATL (50.6% | 39 votes)

Gross. Pass. (49.4% | 38 votes)

Total Votes: 77

GraphsFan

12:53

KIley's chatting? Kiley's chatting. Kiley's chatting!

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

Scout has her head on my leg so I think she's legally chatting as well

Wayne

12:54

Who do you believe the Braves value more between Pache and Riley. They seem to be the main two position players prospects we can dangle. Pretty good debate among us ATL fans.

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

Almost certain it's Pache, which is also how we have them ranked.

Tommy N.

12:55

Thing with signing Donaldson for the Padres would be they move Myers back to LF and trade Renfroe

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

Yeah, I mean that could work. By the end of 2019 it would be something like Myers-Margot-Franmil in the OF, Donaldson-Tatis-Urias-Hosmer in the IF, Mejia at C, some combo of Paddack-Richard-Lucchesi-Allen-Lauer-Perdomo-Lamet-Nix at SP

12:59

I mean that's better, not sure paying retail prices for Hosmer/Donaldson really gets you closer to the playoffs in 2019, so why not hold back one more year?

Doug

12:59

Do you see the Braves just trading Teheran away for a low level back of pack prospect just to get his 11 million off the books and open a spot? Or does he have more value than that? Or need to eat salary to move him? Thanks!!

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Yeah, I think that's the most likely outcome

James

12:59

Jones, Canning and Marsh get Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Yeah, that should get you in the final group, not sure that's definitely the best offer

Orioles

1:00

Any chance we dip into the Agent pool and go after Close? Can you shed some light on if the industry (specifically Clark and the PA) are worried about Close switching sides next?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

To be clear, I don't think hiring an agent in general is a good idea. It's such a different job. Any one case could work, but this isn't a new front office pool that every owner needs to be closely evaluating.

carrotjuice

1:00

Trade proposal: 9 House seats for a Senate seat and a house seat to be named later who hangs up first?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

TOPICAL

J.T Realmuto Trade Proposal Hour

1:01

Does Jesus Sanchez, Nick Solak, Lucius Fox and Resly Linares get J.T. to Tampa?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

That gets you in the conversation for sure, not sure that finishes the deal