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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/18/19
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Mrs. Yamamoto
12:44
In previous year's write up it was mentioned that there are concern about Jordan Yamamoto's lower than 90mph velo working in the majors. He's pitched 78 innings of mlb ball last year with average fb velo of 91.3. Is that a spike or is his velo based concern lessened now and he's better now. What prospect grade would you throw on him now?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
Velo improved which is a good sign and he's probably a 45 FV depth starter that we'd like to see how he adapts to the league adapting to him in 2020
WIll
12:46
Is it plausible (given that Donaldson signs elsewhere) that Bryant goes to the Braves in exchange for Max Fried and Ender Enciarte? Seems like this would be the type of haul the Cubs are looking for.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Don't think it's universal, but there's a compelling case that Fried could have more trade value than Bryant at some point in 2020.

5 years of Fried (1 minimum, 4 arb) of what looks like a mid-rotation guy (but sure, just one good year so far, TJ in the past)
vs.
2 years of Bryant (probably 2, but we'll see)

I think Bryant has the edge now, but if Fried puts up another strong half-season and Bryant gets down to 1.5 years of control, I could see this flipping.

Also, I don't see ATL cutting bait on one of the two SP (Soroka is the other) that emerged from their glut of young arms. Much more likely they trade two of the less proven ones than Fried.
12:51
Inciarte makes perfect sense for a Bryant trade, though. Probably matters what CHC is trying to do post-Bryant. If it's a power rebuild, I think Inciarte plus some upper level pitching from the Anderson/Wright/Touki/Wilson etc group could make sense
12:52
ATL's strength on the farm is upper minors depth, so this would eat into most of it but also get them a clear window and clear out the 40-man/AAA without blowing out the payroll with a mega deal
Dave
12:52
Is CJ Abrams the next Trea Turner?  60-hit, 50-power, 80 speed sure feels like Turner as a ballpark comp.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Doesn't look the same at all and we aren't sure Abrams is a SS, but yeah those three tools are pretty similar
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:52
Larnach & Kirilloff flipped on your recent MIN list. Do you think think most of the league is with you guys on this shift or do most people still value Kirlloff's perceived higher upside over Larnach's more steady profile?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Now that Kirilloff is more 1B and the scorching performance slowed down a bit, Larnach's impact power is a more compelling separator, although they should be close to each other on the top 100
Tom
12:54
Kiley, let's say we do eventually get robot umps. Will we see more bat-first catchers stick? I am thinking about someone like Bo Naylor who has the bat and seems to be decent at holding runners, but the receiving is what dings him as a prospect. Thanks and happy holidays
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Yes, Eric has been on this for awhile, usually mentioning the Alex Jackson type with a big arm, ok defense and big power
Peter Thomas
12:57
Padres are heavily counting on Gore and (to a lesser extent) Patiño to come up and be 4 win pitchers immediately. How should they be evaluating the chances of success?  Is it two coin-flips?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
We did a new thing in last year's top 100 with mostly empirical odds (we tweaked them a bit to match each player) of outcomes for top 100 prospects
so you can look at the Brendan McKay graph for a general idea on 60 FV pitchers
12:59
which is a 70% chance of a #4 starter or better
so depends what you consider success and when they hit that upside, etc. but this gives you an idea of their generic odds to be each FV tier when looking at their 6 years of control as a whole
Pip
12:59
Do you think Viandel Pena in the Nats system will move up to a 35+ or 40 FV this offseason?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
Still a 35. Little dude without much tools, so will need to perform at higher levels to get on the list
Jim
1:00
Any projected tough bonus demand guys in the top 50 of the 2020 draft class, especially relative to your current ranking?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
We've heard chatter on Dylan Crews wanting top 10 money. Dax Fulton blew out and will be an overpay type with a Vandy commit. Those are the only two that come to mind at this point.
Eric
1:01
How excited should I be that the Twins hired Chris Mitchell? He used to do the katoh stuff for Fangraphs, right?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
Correct! I will deputize you to be excited.
AG
1:03
Although it was very small sample low minors sample, Alek Manoah was dominant in 2019. Is it safe to say that he's more advanced than advertised and that his stock is up?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
Guys with a power fastball that can command a breaking ball are the types that dominate the lower levels, so this wasn't surprising. No, 17 innings of stats doesn't change his draft projections.
Ryan
1:04
How excited should Dbacks fans be about Liover Peguero? I'm sure that's someone most fans have not heard about until recently. Thank you!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Sir Nerdlington
1:05
Will you write up your thoughts on the MiLB contraction proposal? I don't get the 'fauxnancial' incentive. It's a few bucks saved for 30 fewer chances at a prospect lottery ticket where a single win is worth $8M. It's not like player evaluation is such an exact science that owners could guarantee none of those players won't become useful.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
I was talking to someone last night about how this doesn't really make sense for MLB.  If they're cutting costs by cutting teams/roster spots then using much of that savings to get the PR/moral win of paying the players more, then MLB is subsidizing the dream/indy league instead of subsidizing the current minor league system...what is being accomplished here? And Manfred's public stance of bullying the minor leagues is eating up whatever PR goodwill he'd get from paying the players more.

Like, what is the end goal here? It seems to obviously be a negotiating tactic to leak an extreme plan and settle at the midpoint, but why be so unlikable in an area where PR matters and play the public villain just to save a couple million when you could easily make more money in a less public way on the MLB payroll economics end of things?
Jeff
1:10
Andrew Friedman walks into a bar. How much is he willing to pay for a drink?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:12
no more than 6 years, $180 million
Jeff
1:12
As a Cubs fan, losing Faustino Carrera in the Rule 5 draft's MiL portion really broke my heart. Talk me off a cliff
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:12
I think we're getting in range
Bort
1:13
How fast can Michael Toglia make it to Colorado? Is a 2021 debut unreasonable?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:14
later 2022 seems like a quick trip thru the minors
Brad
1:14
For prospects who are on The Board after you stop numbering them, does the order in which they appear mean anything? For instance, last summer's update went to 106. After that, are guys more or less just lumped together by FV, or does the order they appear in on The Board indicate an actual ranking?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:14
I think it's just the order they were in when you initially loaded it. They aren't in order past the 50+ FV numerical order
Prospect Brah
1:15
Why are there not more Baseball Academies? Not just international but here in the US too? I think it would it be amazing to go to a private school sponsored by an MLB team where the focus was baseball with emphasis on leadership, finance, business etc.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:15
There's a number of them in Florida, with IMG being the best/most expensive. TNXL around Orlando is another one.
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