JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 2/14/18

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

A few minutes late after being taken on a circuitous route by my dog, it's Kiley chat

A big dumb idiot

12:09

*extremely seinfeld voice* Whaaaaats the deal with prospects

PAC-12 FAN

12:09

You seem lower on Toglia and higher on Rutschman than some other outlets (D1, BP) were this past summer. Obviously you can’t speak for them but do you have any idea on what you may dislike/like with these two prospects that other evaluators may not?

Kiley McDaniel

12:10

Didn't think I'd get questions parsing the specific rankings of the 2019 MLB Draft list but here we are. Main difference here is Toglia (1B/RF, UCLA) is bat-only and doesn't have huge power whereas Rutschman (C, Oregon State) has comparable, above average raw power and is a better athlete who can catch.

Geebs

12:11

Is this another chat dominated by prospect conversation? If so please tell us now so I can leave, I've had my fill.

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

This chat is what you make of it and it seems like you're a Debbie Downer

Erik

12:12

The best thing about the launch-angle revolution: mid-career power breakouts can now be trusted, when in previous decades there would always be the cloud of steroid speculation hanging over guys like Alonso, Smoak, Turner, or Murphy. Does that change the way you view the steroid era? Might a bunch of the sudden breaktout guys have actually just been swing changers?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Obviously it's possible but not sure there's the clear evidence of GB-oriented guys becoming FB-oriented guys. And if it was that simple I feel like some of these guys would be pointing this out.

Doug

12:13

Do GMs get hung up on prospect ratings as much as fans do? I get why the Marlins would ask for Robles or Tucker for Realmuto. But the Nats and Astros have many other good prospects. Is not getting their top guy worth killing a deal over?

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

You'd be surprised how much they care and some outwardly lobby. In a similar way how college football coaches are judged by the star system because it's so widely used and the only objective analysis out there, the opinions of the top couple analysts on MLB stuff is courted along with prospect people. Sometimes it's as simple as being nice/accessible and hoping that works, some try a little more transparently.

Brian

12:15

What kind of profile is best suited for Albies? Should he focus on grounders or does the major league ball give him sufficient pop for 20-25 homers? Does he have gap to gap power? Lastly, is Albies a 70 grade runner like Longenhagen had last year. Thanks Kiley

Kiley McDaniel

12:16

I think the Altuve/Dozier/Betts sort of "smaller guy that doesn't have huge power but enough bat control to tap into it when he gets the right pitch" is the right move here. He is a 70 runner and can play shortstop. Some see the arm as short b/c he so often flips it over when he's not rushed, but it's a 60 arm.

Freddy

12:16

Can Alex Jackson be an every day corner OF if he can’t stick behind the plate? Is the bat enough?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

He's gotten bigger to where he'd have to slim down to do that. Real chance to catch though, or at least be a 1B/DH/pinch hitter/backup C that plays most days and you try to find ABs for. Same for Cumberland in that same system.

Alex Reyes

12:17

Should I start the season in the AAA rotation or the Cardinal bullpen? Which is better for my development?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

I'm conservative with these types and would say AAA but maybe he's the type that needs to be challenged and learn on the job. We've seen plenty of those lately where the AAA stats don't always reflect the talent when there's huge tools. Albies was kinda one of those.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:18

Is AJ Puk up after the Super 2 "deadline"?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

If he does what he did last year, then yeah probably. 2017 was enough of an outlier where he got better in so many ways, I wonder if he backs up just a little bit.

Batflips for BBs

12:19

Do you believe it would be the right move for the Phillies to move on from Cesar Hernandez (a fairly reliable above-average player) in order to give Kingery a shot at the bigs?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

It could be bias against guys that didn't have premium prospect pedigree but it feels like a sell high situation with Hernandez. He would've been moved already if teams thought he was a 3-win guy going forward. Probably a solid 2-win guy?

TopJimmy

12:21

The astute FG prospect analysts are skyyyy highhh on Miguel Andujar (#14) compared to all the other lists I have seen: #65 is the highest I have seen him on other lists. He's the highest non-pitcher on my Dev draft list (based on FG, KATOH, my gut). Please soothe my jangled nerves on Andujar. Dude has tools, but no love outside FG???

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

I can't speak for other outlets but the fact that NYY won't budge on him or Florial and will offer Frazier+ in these packages kinds gives you an idea where NYY and other teams generally value these guys. Andujar comfortable top 50, Florial comfortable top 100, Frazier somewhat below that (isn't eligible obviously). So use that as another source.

Dmitry

12:22

Any fit for a Clint frazier for a Braves pitching prospect? Seems winwin

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

I get the impression fans think of Clint Frazier more highly than clubs do. I think NYY is hoping those things align and will be happy to keep him as depth until that happens or they need to make a move to upgrade.

Astros Fan

12:23

Hi Kiley!! Love your work. What are your thoughts on Freudis Nova? It's hard to find any meaningful info out there on him right now

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Real toolsy, somewhat prototypical Latin big bonus SS with some present power, speed and flashy D. Some questions on the game contact but still young enough to think that could improve.

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:24

I just found out that your number 10 entry on the 2018 draft board plays high school ball practically in my back yard. Tell me a reason why I should take the short trip over to catch a game of Jarred Kelenic's (not that I actually need any convincing, just want to know what theatrics I should expect to be wowed by!)

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

+ run, + arm, has hit everywhere, surprising pop at least avg, CF fit, pretty twitchy athletic kid that's been on the radar as a top guy for years despite cold weather background

v2micca

12:25

Teams have been pretty brazen about keeping a top prospect down in AAA for the first few weeks of a season to gain a year of control. Is there anything stopping teams from using minor league options on a top level pre-arb player to further manipulate his service time?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

The only players where that saves you money are the good ones making real money in arb and once they're proven to be good, you really want to send them down to save a couple million? Braves would've missed the playoffs one year if they kept Heyward down for 9 days to get another year of service. Knowing that would you go back in time and do it differently?

Big Shrimpin

12:26

Do you have any takes on Dustin May? I know some are high on him but you seem not particularly as high.

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Bit of a wait and see projection arm with some present velo and a good breaker, big RPMs on the curveball.

Big Joe Mufferaw

12:27

Can you clarify the low grade on Florial's Defense? Every other major publication has him as a plus defender now and FV.

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

He's a toolsy, somewhat raw prospect who we think will be average in center field. That's pretty good. He was -1 runs in 79 games in CF last year if you want to know what the metrics say http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2017/2017pageNYYrealALL.shtml

12:29

That's -1 relative to average for the level

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:29

Question about Shohei Ohtani - is there anything other than bad PR that would prevent LAA from stashing him in the minors for a couple of weeks to game an extra year of service time out of him? Obviously, a contract negotiation based on "sign me to a $200M deal in a year" was verboten, but was "start me in the majors right away and don't F with my service time clock" fair game?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Don't punch a gift horse in the mouth

Xolo

12:30

What's your take on "untouchable" prospects? Are teams too precious with them slash is it an opening a savvy team could exploit?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

The ones that are it's usually 1) small market where they could never get this player on the open market or 2) close to the majors with 60 FV or higher upside to where it's too much value about to realize value that they can't pass it up

12:31

I'm fine with either of those, just make sure you aren't wrong

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