JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 2/28/18

Kiley McDaniel

12:02

Hello. It is chat time.

tim815

12:03

Agree or disagree.

Kiley McDaniel

12:03

Hmmm. Disagree.

Waltharius

12:03

Is there any update on Hankins’ injury?

Kiley McDaniel

12:04

Not really. It's shoulder soreness, as expected and also rumored before the start where he walked off the mound. He'll rehab it and probably be fine. Hopefully is back on the mound in like a month or two and has some time to prove he's healthy. Don't think it's a long-term thing.

ECinDC

12:04

Fangraphs ranks Carter Kieboom a lot higher than other sites, what do you all see in him that others are missing?

TF Fredrik

12:05

Have you figured out the puzzle of why people are so interested in comparing your ranks to those of others sites? I for the life of me cant understand why people care so much about ordinal rankings by one site compared to another. You are different evaluators that have your own views, ideas, rubrics, cognitive processes etc. etc. It is all information and should be gathered as such instead of argued or asked, why are you so low on so and so?

Kiley McDaniel

12:05

The first chat questions asked and answered by you people. Congrats.

Merl

12:05

Blurt out YOUR top 3 farm systems. Go!

Kiley McDaniel

12:05

Probably ATL, CHW, SD in some order, right? I think so?

Margot

12:06

Any renewed optimism on Amir Garrett after showing 95-97 the other day?

Kiley McDaniel

12:06

Didn't hear if the breaking ball was better, but more arm speed usually does improve the breaking ball a bit

Trevor

12:06

What’s Madrigal’s MLB ETA? 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

12:07

Maybe 2019. The little dudes reach mature quickly, the opposite of big lumbering sluggers that usually take some time to sync everything. I could see him go in the top 5-10 picks, sign, go to full season ball, then instructs/AFL. Start in Hi-A in 2019 and if he keeps hitting and the team needs a 2B, be up at the end of the year. This is a big reason why clubs are on him: high floor, will move quickly, standout tools in bat control/speed/defense.

Billy

12:07

Braves list on the way?

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

Yes! Was basically done weeks ago but some more pressing stuff came up (and I think I wrote like 15 things since then, so I haven't been slacking). And you already have the top 10 with reports and tools on the top 100, so that's most of what you guys care about I'd think. Would guess it will go up Friday but we'll see.

Margot

12:09

What’s your guess on how the Senzel SS experiment ends?

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

Is better than people expect, plays there some, CIN has someone better in the bigs so he doesn't play there more than once a week or on emergency basis

RaysFanHere

12:09

Hi Kiley, thanks for taking time to answer our questions! Always enjoy your chats. What are the odds that Arroyo, Adames and Bauers hit well enough, and Banda gets his ERA closer to his FIP to make the Rays hang around? Or at least become something good in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel

12:11

I mean pretty low that four rookies all hit their ceiling in their first year. But given the depth of upper level prospects, that gives the Rays high variability in season, which means they could win 70 or grab a wild card.

Prospect fan

12:11

Any 2019s at the DR showcase? Also when SS guys are scouted, are there some looks as to who could maybe be a pitcher? I always seem to read in reports of some pitchers that they were initially scouted as SS. Is that still true at age 15/16? Or does that mostly pertain to 12/13?

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

Just 2018. MLB is trying to discourage early deals, so they won't hold showcases for 2019's until well after J2 2018. The conversion guys are almost only guys that sign for $250K or less, for a variety of reasons, so they usually aren't the names you hear on J2 with the big bonuses.

Aaron

12:12

Braves sign Moustakas and package Riley and SP prospects for Archer. Any chance?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Can't imagine they will and don't think that's a good idea, either. No reasons to cash in chips until the window is closer to open. ATL has been acting like that's their plan, as well. It also makes things easier on a new GM to get to know his system for a year before making a super splashy deal and Anthopolous lucked out that waiting a year for a big trade/FA signing looks like the most prudent move with this group anyway.

Hunter Hayes

12:14

Oh my gosh!! You totally look like me!

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

LOL there's a scout that always tells me this so I hope this is him and this opinion hasn't spread

A big dumb idiot

12:14

Can you tell us a little bit about Orelvis Martinez?

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

Kinda typical big bonus J2 shortstop. Loose, wiry frame with bat speed and some now power, still plenty of work to be done with polish at the plate, power in games, etc. Not a bad SS but physical projection seems like it'll move him off of SS, in which case the power probably jumps. Just a lot of guessing off of a nice base of athleticism and tools to start with. It's rare that a J2 report is anything better than that--Vlad Jr, etc. doesn't come every year.

Wes

12:16

Yankees obviously had depth to deal from, but do you think they could regret dealing Solak/Widener for Drury?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

I don't think so. Both prospects are nice, higher probability, lower upside guys that are a year or two away and NYY already has had a 40-man crunch multiple years and is starting above average regulars at most spots. Drury is MLB ready, versatile, fits the short term need on a contender and is maybe as good as Solak becomes anyway.

12:18

Essentially shuffling fringe pieces around and losing some control for certainty when that fits the org need

Mike

12:18

Are you planning on doing a write-up/ranking this spring of '18-'19 J2 prospects?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

Yes! Eric and I already have 70+ names in a database for 2018, I have tons of video and reports from last week, projected teams/bonuses, etc. and a handful of names for 2019 as well. There will be a sortable board but the 2019 formal stuff likely won't come for awhile, aside from some references to the top guys, likely in an intro to the 2018 board or in chats

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:19

Are you the chatter who, a few weeks ago, took a couple minute break to give the pupper a belly rub? If so, my belly scratch loving doggo would like to commend you on having your priorities straight.

12:20

golden retriever or husky?

Kiley McDaniel

12:20

Yes, that was me. Scout is a golden/lab mix and she's staring at me right now, probably mad that I'm not currently scratching her belly.

Ben

12:21

If given the option of having the 10th overall pick or two 2nd round picks which would you choose?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

10th

David

12:22

Do you think it’s smarter for teams to allocate the majority of their international bonus money to 1 player, or sign 20 lesser prospects for the price of that 1 player?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

I think for many orgs with a good track record in Latin America the ROI will be higher with the 20 guys, but that also eats up limited DSL roster spots. If you have one team, that's most of the spots you have, so you have to release some of those guys within a year to make room for next year's guys and the low bonus guys don't pop in one year. So, short of having 4 DSL teams, orgs have to balance these things.

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