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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 3/6/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Typically there's a player in mind, or a group, when a trade this late is made
Walter Sobchak
12:48
What are the primary differences between Marco Luciano and Ronny Mauricio? Is the difference in their grades more about physical talent or having seen Mauricio perform for a year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Luciano will probably be a 45+ and Mauricio is a 50, so that's about as close as you're gonna get. Mauricio has more hit tool and much better chance to stick at SS while Luciano can probably stay in the IF and has a lot more power
Gilbert
12:51
How is more likely to take a big leap forward this year between Bryan Abreu, Luis Medina and Roansy Contreras?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
All in the 45 FV range with big stuff and a chance to jump into the top 100 with a big year. I'd go Contreras, Abreu, Medina
another bad dynasty manager
12:51
What's your opinion of Tirso Ornelas ( I hope I spelled that right)?  Does he really have a beautiful swing, as others have said?  What's his upside?  Thx for these chats.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
who_is_zorbist?
12:52
26 man roster in 2020 was just announced.  Does this end the McCay experiment?  A good pitcher who can pinch hit or occasionally DH isn't as valuable today as it was yesterday, right?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Brendan McKay is like 1% less valuable now, because him saving you a roster spot is a little less valuable than before...but he's still really valuable since he can save you a roster spot.
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:54
As a yankee fan can I safely celebrate having Jasson Dominguez? Is it a "done deal"?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
You can feel very confident, but predicting stuff months in the future is never 100%
Mike
12:55
I'm curious about how you solicit feedback from professional scouts, especially if they're already employed by major league teams. Do they just volunteer information when asked? I would think they'd want to keep a tight lid on evaluations.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
Depends on the kind of information. If it's a player their team can't/won't acquire and/or their opinion is really similar to ours, they lose almost nothing but giving us a little bit and we often have info we can't report to trade with them. If their GM sends them on a special assignment to see a player to trade for and other teams are offering trades for that player so their evaluation could really impact something immediately...then basically none of the scouts we talk to, even close friends, would tell us about that.
12:58
Have a big enough network, and any player could fall into the "well, I can tell you about HIM kind of guy"
Hakuna Machado
12:58
Went to the SDSU/Texas Tech game last night and came away impressed by Aaron Eden. Your thoughts on him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
Eric was at that game last night, so he's probably the guy to ask
JaKob
12:59
Could Logan Gilbert end at AA this year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
Sure
Babyfarts Mckeezack
1:00
Vidal Brujan - is he likely to be a Tony Kemp or Jose Altuve type player? Read his defense is more solid than Kemp’s but feel like he’d be more hyped if he was an Altuve type player.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
We're the high guys on Brujan: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:00
Did you see Isan Diaz's swing?! It's identical to Cano! Do you often see, in the minors, prospects and players blatantly imitate other players' swings?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
Moncada also emulates a lot of Cano's game, some guys are better at looking identical than others. For a while, every Dominican prospect with any power swung exactly like Manny Ramirez
Childish Bambino
1:01
Is WSH's Luis Garcia a present day Jurickson Profar type?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
I think Jurickson Profar is the present day Jurickson Profar
B
1:02
My son (8) has a long swing.  How do I coach him to shorten it up?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
the best swing guys I know say you change a swing via drills where the kid will adjust it himself to hit the ball
so swing gets started late, put him on a machine that throws hard and he'll speed up
long swing, give him quick toss on his hands and he'll shorten up to get there
1:05
do it long enough and that becomes his swing, which isn't contingent on you giving him verbal cues, he subtly did it himself
often won't even notice
which is the best kind of hitting instruction, especially if a hitter is a little stubborn or slow to adjust
BK
1:06
I know you don't care much for fantasy, but if you had to guess who has the most fantasy impact out of Soroka, Touki, Wright, Gohara, this year, who would you pick?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
Touki, Wright, Gohara, Soroka, I also wrote this basically for you people, but it was pre-Soroka injury: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-impact-prospects/
Greg
1:06
Any early indications on Florida's chances to get any of Greene, Matthew Allan or Barco to school?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:07
Sounds like they all go in the top 40, so I'd say like 10-15% chance they get any one of them?
Walter Sobchak
1:07
Julio Rodriguez and Jordyn Adams are both 45+ prospects at the moment. Who do you prefer?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:07
I'll take Adams, the 80 run/CF fit gives a little more margin for error
Nolan Gorman
1:08
What's my ceiling? I know I have contact issues and possibly 1B defense, but if I put it together, can I be a Goldschmidt or Bryant type?  Or is that too high?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
Too high. The scouting the statline people really go overboard on the guys with good pro debuts. We've though for almost 2 years that Gorman is a 5 bat, 6 or 7 power, maybe 3B type. That's really good! Doesn't have to be the best player in baseball
Charlie
1:09
Ben Lindbergh had a great article on The Ringer on 12 years of Reds' scouting reports. One of the most interesting things to me was just how obvious it was that scouts hedge their grades and rate towards the middle too much. Do you think that's still a common problem, and have you ever analyzed your own reports in a similar way?
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