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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/10/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
Hello live from Orlando with Scout in tow. I came back to Florida just for you people. Got the top prep arm in the country last night, Matt Allan
12:24
Carter Stewart got canceled for today, so plan is to head to Lakeland to get Spencer Howard/Clearwater tonight, then tomorrow double up noon Freddy Tarnok/Will Stewart with Riley Greene/Dylan Crews matchup at night.
to your questions:
Greg
12:24
What did you think about Matthew Alan last night?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
He was 94-96 t97, with a 60-65 CB and CH only in warmups, then rain hit and he came back more 91-94 with a 60 CB and a little less command. Not the slam dunk top 15 pick type for me specifically, but I'm low on most prep righties and the industry says Allan is the consensus top guy (unless Priester keeps coming on like he did last time out).
12:27
I'm lower on prep RHP since most of them would go way lower with a tick or two less velo (which comes and goes more than you think, often with less than a week of rest it goes down a couple ticks in pro ball) and, obviously, the injury risk. I lean more toward average stuff with some projection/athleticism and grab a few for day one prices altogether.
Ben
12:27
Have you heard anything about Nate Pearson's first two outings?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Stuff has been bonkers as expected, 97-99 t100, almost +2 for effective velocity with near 7 foot extension. Hoping I can track him down while I'm in FL.
Lilith
12:29
If neither Abrams nor Witt go in the top four, is it possible that one would be available for the Reds at 7?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
Yeah, seems about 50/50 that one of them get there
John
12:30
I trade Alec Bohm for Hunter Greene and Anthony Banda in my fantasy league. Tell me that's a good deal
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Two TJ guys and Bohm has been just okay since signing...so not great so far for either side? We'll have a first hand account on Bohm coming to the site soon
Lilith
12:30
How high do you think Bishop can realistically rise in the draft? Is top 5 possible?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Sure, sounds like as high as 3 and 4 they are looking for college bats and you could argue he's the 3rd best one
Kyle
12:31
Kansas City went heavy college last year and you have them linked to Vaughn with their first pick this year also. Do you think they continue that with the picks that follow in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? If so any names they're being linked to?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Got a lot of questions about this yesterday. People in the industry think it's better than 50% that if the draft is today, KC takes Vaughn. When you're picking 2nd in a draft with a clear-cut top 2 and everyone below that is scrambling to find guys they like and/or cut deals in the top 10, you just take the best guy.
12:33
Lots of KC fans were shocked that the buzz is their club would consider taking the clear best talent at 2 b/c they tend to take HS players. That doesn't normally matter in this sort of situation and their GM was seen scouting amateurs for the first time in a long time last year...and they took all college players early. Even if that pick is a product of philosophy, I don't think we know what KC is trying to do right now in terms of draft leanings, but I don't think that matters for the first pick.
12:34
More and more, rebuilding teams now have an ETA in mind and build toward that, so I'm guessing that's what going on in KC, but I don't know for sure.
Walter Sobchak
12:34
Julio Rodriguez is going from the DSL to the SAL. How big a jump is that?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Really big. DSL is like GCL in terms of talent/tools and weak HS in terms of polish/quality of play.
12:35
There's also lots of anecdotal evidence of clubs telling us off the record that the reason why X prospect (almost always from the Caribbean) was bad in his age 18 or 19 Low-A debut is he was in cold weather for the first time and had a really slow start that he couldn't dig out of.
12:36
So this speaks to SEA's confidence in Julio's makeup to try it anyway
And the buzz out of AZ on Julio was really strong, so if he has a good first month, he'll almost certainly be a 50 FV
Andrew
12:37
Any direction on the Reds at #7? They seem to be right in the middle of the FV 50 guys.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
Nothing we're particularly confident in right now, but they're always tied to FL talents, in part b/c Chris Buckley lives in Tampa and I've heard them mentioned with Riley Greene. So I'd imagine he's among the guys in their mix.
Daniel
12:38
Kiley, do you think Dansby Swanson's hot start is for real or do you think its just a streak?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Well he's at a 176 wRC+ right now and ZiPS has him at 90 wRC+ the rest of the year (100 is a league average performance at the plate), so I'll take ZiPS if I have to pick one, but I've always thought Dansby's best seasons would land around 100 to 115, maybe career avg at 95 to 100. The current career line of 79 isn't indicative of future results, for me.
Hinkie
12:40
No Cooper Johnson or Jared Horn on your draft Board.  Are they not among the top 265 prospects for the draft or just an oversight?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Horn doesn't have the big stuff of HS but you could argue he's toward the tail end of this. Johnson is an advanced defender, so you could argue him for the back of the rankings as well and I'd bet he gets on there at some point in the 35 or 35+'s.
Weenie
12:44
Who are some minor league guys who have really taken a step forward, whether that be a swing change or increased velo/better stuff? Or is it still too early to determine that?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
We have a running list of guys that will get boosted in the first update of the season, but it's mostly guys who have been hurt and after one start, the velo shows they're back to normal. Don't have it front of me, but Glen Otto with NYY is one that comes to mind. Daniel Lynch held the velo spike late in the year that made us rank him the highest of the outlets for the draft and Logan Gilbert has had the velo bump some thought he would get this year after being overused last spring at Stetson.
JH
12:45
In your professional opinion, would Geraldo Perdomo be cool with me calling him Perd?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Would ask him first, but the best Perd on my board lives in Pawnee
Turncow
12:46
Have you seen Turnbull pitch? What does he need to do to be a decent MLB starter?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Yep, a couple times as a pro and in college, Big dude with good stuff, just 40-45 command in most situations, so it's more good multi-inning or late reliever than traditional starter. Could still be a #4 starter, though
Sam
12:47
You have any plans to make it out to chapel hill this year? You intrigued by anybody besides Busch on the team?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Probably get one more game with them, but got one in GT last weekend. Ike Freeman is on the draft radar for this year, along with the whole weekend rotation to varying degrees (Tyler Baum, Gianluca Dalatri, Austin Bergner). Brandon Martorano and Joey Lancelotti also of interest this year. Not a ton of buzzy underclassmen, but Danny Seretti may be the best of the bunch, Aaron Sabato and Austin Love also on the radar.
Jo-Nathan
12:50
Watch out for Florida Man!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
how do you know that's not me
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