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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/11/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:08

Hello fellow humans lets chat baseball

Tommy N.

12:08

Any thoughts on Lucchesi’s first few mlb starts?

Matt

12:08

Joey Lucchesi: Is he good? Think he can stick in a major league rotation?

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

Didn't watch any of his MLB starts yet but saw him as an amateur and it's basically the same: solid average stuff, above feel/command and tons of funk/deception. That normally plays up first time through the league them plays medium for a bit them plays down, but the down part sometimes takes a few years.

12:10

We were the high guys on Lucchesi, made him an other 50 FV on the top 100 here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

So he was something like 115-135 overall for us before the season started. So he's something like a ready-made fourth starter, may be a little better than that for stretches, like right now.

Mike

12:11

Talk to me about Cubs prospects. All of them.

Kiley McDaniel

12:11

Here's the list and Caratini just graduated: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

Kyle

12:11

Any thoughts on Bren Spillane from Illinois. He has been putting up monster numbers. Does he have any draft stock?

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

Some teams like him as a later round power bat, some barely think he's worth drafting. That's kinda how most of the non-elite conference 1B only power bats go.

12:12

Who's the top 3 draft prospects right now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Mize, Bohm, Madrigal for me but you could argue Swaggerty or McClanahan or Stewart could be in there.

12:14

So we just posted my super long high school prospect notebook here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-dr...

Video, reports and where they should be drafted on 14 players I've seen in the last month

here's a similar breakdown of the college players I saw, from last week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-college...

12:15

and here's our preseason rankings for reference, which will be updated soon, probably next week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/

and here's my notes from guys I saw week one, including McClanahan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-notes-in-person-scouting-scuttle...

12:15

How much of pitching injuries is just luck, 100%?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

I'd say around 50%. Some teams think they can drastically reduce the chances with some biomechanical, arm action, delivery, sport science, etc. sort of research and I'm inclined to agree. Still a lot of luck and personal factors buried in a players DNA where we can't find it out don't understand it. Kinda the same for eyes measuring a player's hitting skill. We know it's there and some teams think they can get a decent idea, but there's tons we don't know.

Desperate, confused Marlins fan

12:17

*screams from Miami* Stanton always has a bad April...

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

He's also really good but NYY fans are always measured and reasonable. Can we get a segment of Mike and Mad Dog saying they should release Stanton so we can replay it when he hits 10 homers in two weeks in June?

FatGreenPuppet

12:18

Where's your report on the NHSI? Will it go live before the June Draft?

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

NHSI is about 2/3 of the 14 guys that I linked to above that just went live

Greg

12:18

I know Brady Singer's stuff has reportedly been down this year, but how low could he realistically fall because of it?

Kiley McDaniel

12:20

He's a tough one, he's somewhere in the middle of the first round right now. His arm is late to catch up to his body timing wise in his delivery, he failed a physical (but wasn't hurt) due to arm stuff in HS and his velo was 90-92 early in the spring, but is more 92-94 now. Nothing is plus, but he performs. One scout told me last night that he feels like the guy that slides due to all these worries then he doesn't get hurt for the next 5-6 years and we're all like oh duh he should've gone top 10. I'm still conflicted but will see him again in the coming weeks, probably when he matches up with Casey Mize in Gainesville.

Hank

12:20

Jaseel De La Cruz was dominant in his first outing. Can he stick as a starter?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

Maybe! Curious to see him and Muller when I'm up in Georgia later this month. He has two +'s and is a good athlete, but needs to make command progress

Henry

12:21

Any mock drafts coming soon?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

With the CHW/Swaggerty connection and Kelenic/DET news earlier this week, we're definitely hearing things so we may jump into the top 10-15 picks after we shuffle the rankings next week

Bun B

12:23

Josh Lowe...Picking up where he left off from last season. Do he and Jesus Sanchez have equally lofty upsides?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

We have the TB list written, so that should go up soon. Short version on Lowe is he still has 65 raw, 60 speed, 60 arm in CF but his higher risk flyball lofted hitting style in HS has been changed to a more conservative contact approach. Tools are still there for more but he's in the Brandon Nimmo mold currently, maybe Christian Yelich if you squint and dream real hard. Sanchez is covered in the top 100 here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-100-prospects/

Outta my way, Gyorkass

12:25

I apologize if this sounds like a dumb question, but bear with me: Do top prep players even play for their high school teams their senior years, or do they usually join traveling "all-star" AAU type teams and play for them?

I'm wondering because I live pretty close to Jarred Kelenic's high school, and would love to go catch a game and see him in action (not too common to be able to see a prep talent like him in these parts!), if he's even going to be playing for his high school team.

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Mentioned in the tweets about Kelenic a few days ago. He will be playing for Hitters Baseball, a travel team this spring. Almost every draft prospect, like 99%, play for their HS in the spring. Pretty sure their schedule is online if you want to track him down. Sounds like Eric may be doing that soon.

paul

12:26

I know he's not a prospect anymore, but is Preston Tucker anything more than a bench bat?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Platoon/bench LH corner OF bat, solid 45

Slurve

12:26

Which players solid/excellent start has been most interesting to you? Why?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

Some guys look legitimately better than their offseason reports, with pitchers adding velo the easiest group to notice that from. Griffin Canning and Kyle Muller both had velo spikes and they will rise (and we will have a mechanism coming soon for you to follow these risers). There's also a tooled-up NL west prospect that we will be the high guys on, list coming next week. We got a Julio Jones body comp on him.

Scott

12:28

Hey Kiley! I’m curious how scouts are trained by teams. Is it learning on the job or is there a training program? Do you see any issues with how it is done? Solutions/ideas? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

It's common for more entry level jobs to go to retired players with limited scouting experience or more internet scouts/interns that have a year or two of scouting experience. Obviously, lots of learning on the job for both of those groups. Any scout you ask, no matter how experienced, would tell you they learn something new every day.

12:30

Some teams have formal scout schools to get everyone on the same page about the basics, others just make concerted efforts to match experienced guy with younger guys for 1-on-1 type training at games, in-season

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