JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/3/19

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/3/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:12

Hello from ATL! I'll be heading out soon to see prep SS Nasim Nunez and keeping my attention on the early returns from NHSI, which wasn't loaded enough (all the relevant colleges for 2019 draft talent around Cary are out of town) for me to make my yearly pilgrimage.

12:13

We've got a newly-alive FG instagram page @fangraphs, featuring all of our fancy high speed video

And I've got a couple big features I've been working on, with one that's internationally-focused coming possibly as soon as tomorrow. And we're finishing up the lists.

Joe

12:14

Are any of the Cuban players from the list you tweeted 25/6yr guys that the Braves could possibly target since they can’t spend this July 2?

TJ

12:14

Is Miami in on any of these Cuban guys?

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

And some questions about what I reported last night, in a thread here:

Sources: MLB sent clubs a memo today w/a list of Cuban players eligible to be signed in the 2019 int'l bonus pools. MLB is working on creating events for clubs to scout the players, who would be signed in a posting system where the Cuban gov't gets a cut: pelotacubanablog.com/2019/04/02/fed…

12:16

So there's J2 pool eligible Cubans that, last night, MLB and Cuba announced all 34 that are eligible to be signed. There's some good ones in there, considering the talent base in Cuba is down across the board, but it's almost all of the guys with MLB potential

Clubs are still confused about how this will work. There isn't an event organized yet, but MLB is indicating they plan to have at least one event in Cuba for clubs to come down and evaluate the players

12:17

They're all pool-eligible guys that aren't 25+6 years of pro experience, so there aren't any true FAs in this group. And there aren't really any big name Cubans that would be free and clear FAs at this point.

12:18

Much of the 2019 J2 pools have been committed for months, but there's some money left and MLB wanted to let teams know that these guys were going to be out there so they would save some money for it, but it's not super clear when the events will be and all the various minor details that go along with signing the players

DJ Tanner

12:19

Marco Luciano state side debut won't be here until July correct?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

June, but yes

Jason

12:19

Thoughts on the Acuna deal ? Seems like great deal for the Braves ?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

tweeted about this earlier:

I'm happy Acuna is set for life.

He could've proposed a version of the Blake Snell deal (one FA year, no options), which would be something like 7 years, $60M. Hits FA for age-28 season, could get Harper deal then. Set for life, could still get $500M after.

in a thread, there's more thoughts

12:21

on top of that, I didn't mention that the Braves had uniquely beneficial situation where they had a cornerstone guy who hasn't gotten paid yet ($100k initial bonus, $500k salaries for the next few years) and there's some rumors out there about the agent that did the deal, which you can google and kinda figure out what I'm talking about.

12:22

So the Braves had a guy they really wanted to lock up, who really wanted a payday pretty soon and an agent that wasn't going to dissuade Acuna from that. Those are the conditions to get a bargain.

12:23

So, while i said ATL would take something like the Snell deal if Acuna's camp proposed it, I meant if there was a different agent there. ATL knew they had a great situation and could get a beneficial outcome. If Acuna had hired Boras and they offered the deal I outline in the tweet, I think ATL would take it. But that's an alternate reality. Happy for the kid that he got paid.

WeeJee

12:23

How heavily do you weigh command when looking at prospects?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

Maybe a little less now than five years ago? 45 command but three good pitches five years ago meant a guy was resigned to being a 45 FV/PV as a setup guy in most cases and now those sorts of pitchers are much more valuable. It's still really important, but pitching has evolved to where stuff and control is enough to succeed for some. Command would be quality strikes whereas control is simply throwing it in the zone

Dave

12:25

Columbia is opening with Mauricio, Newton, Vientos, Szapucki and Woods-Richardson on the roster - on a scale of 1-10, how excited should I (and Mets fans in general) be?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

Yep I flagged Charleston (mostly for the pitching staff) and Columbia (mostly for the bats) as the teams in my general area that I need to see early and often

Works well for clicks that it's NYM and NYY affiliates

Roger

12:26

Huascar Ynoa is going to AAA. Is he moving to the pen now? Or does this just greatly increase the odds that he moves there in MLB?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

He was added to the 40-man and is something like a 35/45 command type, so pen became more likely once he was added...or really even before that, since he would've been taken in the Rule 5, so it was happening either way.

AJ

12:27

Too early to ask about teams & names for the draft? Any White Sox intel this early?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

Not too early for the top 5 or so. Keep hearing college bats for CHW. Rutschman/Vaughn would presumably be gone and it opens up a lot after that.

Here's our board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...

Angelus Novus

12:29

Good afternoon. David Hess a 40 FV?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Yep

Roger

12:30

Do teams consult actuaries in the process of formulating extension offers to young players?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Well, they consult their analysts, who are better versed in baseball specific matters

Beetlejuice

12:31

The number of takes that say "Acuna just screwed himself out of a ton of money" appear pretty ignorant of behavioral economics. People will almost always value $100 now over a 50% chance at $200 in a year. His decision to forgo year to year arbitration and secure his future is completely in line with what most of us would do.

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

This is a bad take, which I've seen a lot, because it implies Acuna's choices were this deal or just make the minimum for two years and who knows, maybe his body explodes on the field tomorrow. He had thousands of choices that would pay him now and give him the chance to get a $300M deal later. THAT is the thing that everyone is saying he could've done differently, not that he should've sat there and done nothing. And to be clear, it was people with teams and agents both immediately texting me when this came out, all gravitating to that point.

Jake

12:33

Kyran Paris at 24 to the Indians seems like a lock,

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

I mean that would make a lot of sense given CLE's propensity to take young-for-the-class HS athletes

Lenny Torres, Will Benson, Quentin Holmes among the examples

Phillie Phanatic

12:34

Hi Kiley! Has there ever been a 80raw 80speed guy?

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

Sounds like Bo Jackson was the closest, if there was one

WeeJee

12:34

In dynasty league, stash Robert Puason or Marco Luciano? And why? Thanks.

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