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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/2/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:02
Kiley is here! Just got to south GA as a stopover for Scout to see some family and play in the woods.
2:03
Plan is to see Kumar Rocker vs. Cole Wilcox then Anthony Seigler tomorrow, Ryan Rolison at South Carolina Friday, Cole Sands/FSU at Clemson Saturday, Joey Bart at GT Sunday, Ryan Weathers Monday, Travis Swaggerty at Auburn Tuesday then hopefully Parker Meadows playoff game Wednesday on the way home. Full week!
All subject to change, but that sounds like a pretty good run even with some adjustments
We'll have a new mock draft next week around this time, probably just 10 picks but a different order than the last one
2:04
I'll have the Twins list coming soon, the draft board will be a part of THE BOARD and an update to minor league portion of THE BOARD is also in the works
Along with video/reports on the players I'm seeing so yeah Eric and I have a lot going on right now
To your questions!
Mike
2:04
In the past, you've mentioned Alec Bohm and Nick Madrigal as the two most likely targets for the Phillies at 1-3.  Has Joey Bart entered the mix for that pick ?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:05
Have not heard that specifically, but he is in play for 2/SF and 5/CIN and 6/NYM so that wouldn't be shocking. Still hearing Bohm is the preference for 3/PHI and they had some heat in this weekend to see him at UCF (I was there) after they had some heat at Singer/Mize on Thursday
Tommy N.
2:05
Have you heard anything on Tatis Jr. lately?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:05
Scuffling a bit but no one is worried yet
Randy
2:06
I remain somewhat underwhelmed by Casey Mize at 1-1. Have you heard any encouraging comps?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:08
It's a little odd, and we'll go into more detail on this in various media. Three + pitches and above average control is pretty generically top 3-5 picks for college arms, but I can't think of one where he's mostly splitter and cutter, almost pitching backwards at times, similar to some of the Japanese pro pitchers we've seen come over. And there is some effort to the release, but it doesn't affect the command/control much. So, yeah, it is unusual but Mize is also very good.
JT
2:08
30 MINUTES BUT I WANT IT NOW
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:08
Not a good look for the Man of the Woods but i appreesh the intensity
bob cobb
2:08
Are the tools listed position adjusted? Ie 50 hit for a 1B isn’t the same as 50 hit for SS, or is it the same and we adjust total grade up based on position?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:09
Hit grades are the same across position--scaled to league average batting average--but defensive grades are relative to position.
Kevin
2:09
Besides age what is the big difference between max schrock and Luis urias?  They both look like hit, obp guys but one is ranked so much higher than the other.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:11
Urias is looser and twitchier with elite bat control along with better pop and pitch selection along with slightly better arm/defense where he can be an emergency SS and Schrock can't really. Urias is also 3 years younger at the same level
Cruze
2:11
Is Juan Soto the next prospect to ascend to the Vlad/Acuna tier?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:12
Not quite that level of tools, but could turn into 60 bat/power and 50 D in RF. Short track record so waiting to see a bit more, but there's top 10-15 overall prospects (60-65 FV) that are that type of player.
Brandon
2:12
Could you envision a scenario where a team exceeds its June draft signing bonus allotment by more than 5%? (and thus forfeiting future draft picks)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:13
It would have to be a super specific instance where a team goes $10 million over with lots of overslot HS guys that it thinks are slightly mispriced and they also really like and also slide a bit and they think they won't have high/many picks the next year...and also lots of balls on the part of the GM. So, seems reeeaaallly unlikely but every year or two there's a team in a position to consider it.
Don't think anyone will actually do it in this CBA, though.
Andrew Friedman
2:14
Do you think Will Banfield would be a good pick if he slides to 30?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:14
Sounds like a 30-60 fit. Scouts are hesitant about prep catchers in general and Banfield has had a half dozen different swings, so there's some concern on the feel for hitting/contact/ability to get to the power. But it's 55 raw, 55-60 D and arm, so there's reward if the gamble pays off.
Ziggy
2:15
Francis Martes had 8 BB this past outing and now has over 8 BB/9 on the season. How does a player with once reportedly above average control fall of this much in this area? Is he damaged goods at this point or any hope he can regain some of his former prospect status?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:15
Heard his velo has been down this year as well, so is someone to monitor closely
Len
2:15
Were you able to confirm what you posted about Wentz's velocity going up?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:16
Heard it from 3-4 sources and opted to see Wichita State sunday instead of him, but should get in to see Wentz in the next few weeks to see how different it is. I've been told he was working 92-94 mph his first few outings.
Kyler
2:16
What did you think about Soroka last night? Breaking stuff wasn't great but it seemed like he commanded his fastball well. Overall I thought he was good, and I'm pumped for this guy to be in the rotation for years to come.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:17
He's really good. Mentioned on twitter that I've seen all three pitches flash plus, but never in the same game and he had something to clean up with his landing that it looks like he's cleaned up this year. Command and mental approach has always been above. There's a path where he continues improving, everything is plus and he's an ace or close to it, but I tend to bet on the median and our projection was all 55's, more of a solid #3/60 FV/3 win guy that might be a 4 win guy once or twice...which is still really, really good.
bob cobb
2:18
you had previously discussed (back in your first tenure) using something similar to derivative pricing models to try and value and assess prospects. Has this gained any sort of traction in front offices or in the public sphere?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:19
I made one when I worked for a previous team, so it isn't rocket science. Perception is that most front offices have a sense of the value of WAR/prospects/dollars but not a formal system with a specific number
Dave
2:19
Kiley, love your chats.  How would you compare Jonathan India to Nick Senzel (when he was coming out of college) both as a prospect and where he ended up going in the draft?  Can India make it to the top 5?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:20
Senzel was a 55 runner that could play a passable 2B and decent SS whereas India is more of an average runner that's a 50 at 3B and is emergency at the middle spots. Senzel has comparable raw power, but tapped into it more since he has a better bat and approach. Sorta similar, but the looseness/feel for the game/slight tools bump for the earlier Urias/Schrock example is in play, to a lesser degree. We have India as a bag of 50's that fits on talent 15-20 but may go 10-15 for a numbers/floor oriented club
Dave
2:20
Kiley, How good is Joey Bart's bat and do you see him as a potential middle of the order bat?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:21
Even scouts that like him say it's a 45 bat, 60 raw, probably 55 game power. So you're expecting a 100 wRC+ with 55ish defense. More 45 bat due to the power/lift approach than a lack of feel to hit.
Gigi
2:21
I'm getting irrationally excited about Peter Alonso, given that he's an bat-only right-handed 1bman with a lead glove and no speed. I know his defense is godawful, but is the bat for real? His current slash line (.400 / .500 /.788, 8 homers) is absurd. Help me understand how excited I actually should be?! What's his realistic ceiling at this point?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:23
Could be 50 bat 70 game power with some walks, but as you mention there's no margin for error since he's a good platoon bat if he's much less than that. 45 bat/55 game power as a bat only 1B is a part-time player.
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