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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/2/18
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Julio Jones Comp
2:23
There was a teaser a few weeks ago about a NL West prospect who was a Julio Jones comp?  Then nothing.  It's like Prom Night all over again.  I even bought this corsage...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:24
Kristian Robinson of the D'Backs. Bahamanian J2 prospect from last year got $2.5M and has been better than expected. Eric has seen him a few times on the backfields and can provide more color but there's some real ceiling there.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:24
What's the scouting report on Colin Poche and Sam McWilliams, the PTBNL from the Souza deal? You and Eric didn't give either a 40, but their lines so far, especially Poche, look respectable.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:25
Eric tweeted out quick reports on them yesterday but short version is high others of note (35+) that could work their way onto a list. McWilliams is tall and throws hard but fringe offspeed, chance to start. Poche is deceptive lefty whose stuff plays up a lot, but some wonder how much it'll play up in the bigs.
David
2:25
Which non top 100/200 prospects have given themselves the largest boost in the early going this year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:26
Griffin Canning is probably the top guy right now. Velo up, healthy, breaker is a little better.
Mike M
2:26
I was in Gwinnett last Friday to see Gohara play and my WORD is he... Hefty. Is that a concern for the Braves?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:27
Luckily there's some comps in Sabathia and David Wells who have made that work for years. Not saying he's the same guy but there's at least a precedent. For an industry that's always picking apart bodies, Gohara's is...not ideal. But the stuff is v good
Erik
2:27
What's up with A.J. Minter? ERA looks good and there are reports of more save chances on the horizon, but just a 21.8% K rate and a scary 18.2% walk rate make him look like a long reliever at best, as does his 4.98 xFIP.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:27
Be patient!
Peter in St Pete
2:27
Why do I keep reading these chats every week
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:27
Really good question
Grant
2:27
How do organizations test player development in low levels? Do they very formally say, "Try this change - we will see the effect in 4 months", or are things simply too dynamic for that?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:28
More fluid. Let's see if this works and we'll reevaluate when/if it does
Sean
2:28
Getting the impression from Eric's chat that you may be the high one on Casey Mize between you and Eric.  Is he a future #2 or better?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:30
I looked for reasons for him not to be #1 for us given the reasons above. Can't really make the case as the top of the draft doesn't have that slam dunk OMG guy this year. Hard to ignore plus stuff with control and performance in the best league...just needs to stay healthy. But if there was a red flag-less player with comparable talent, there are some that don't like Mize's arm action, though that more of a yellow flag for me, along with cutter use.
Dude
2:30
Soroka threw a 95-mph two-seamer. Just saying.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:30
He's always had that, but mostly worked 90-93 and reached back when he needed it. Curious to see if he sustains that or it was first night adrenaline. Some delivery tweaks and general maturation could tease a little more velo out
Vegan Man!
2:31
Florial is walking 14% of the time as a 20 year old in high A. How concerning is his 32% k rate? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:32
He's a late-count guy with power so I'm starting to think he'll always have higher BB and K rates and hit about .250 but get to his power and have defensive value. Seems like the lazy comp for that type is Mike Cameron but if I think harder I'll come up with a better one.
Dave
2:32
Kiley, Swaggerty's average has dipped below .300 now, well off what he hit last year.  Is he trying too hard to hit for power? And how concerned should teams be about how he's hitting right?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:34
Swing is more power-focused and he's a little stronger and he also had a weeks long spell (when I first saw him this spring) when he was out of sync and off balance. Some clubs are a little worried about this performance but others point out that he's hot again now (I'll see him next week to get a better sense), while other teams are worried about some maturity issues. Eric and I know the specific instances the teams are citing, so we aren't just taking their word for it, as we're careful not to spread rumors about player's makeup, especially right before what could be (but hopefully isn't) their only payday.
Dylan R
2:34
Is there any way to tell if a pitcher has a high spin rate besides looking at Trackman or Statcast or whatever?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:34
Not that I know of
Jo-Nathan
2:35
Will Soroka stay up?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:35
I'd have to think so, but haven't heard specifically
Fleer
2:35
What names are the braves connected to with the 8th pick of the draft? Is AA going to change their previous draft strategy of going pitcher heavy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:35
Hearing mostly prep/power arms there, so seems like it'll be more of the same, but that is a question the industry is also wondering
Dave
2:35
Kiley, what do you think the chances are that Kloffenstein goes to campus if he doesn't go first round?  TCU has been a tough place to get pitchers away from.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:36
Sense is that comp/early 2nd money should get it done and that someone will pay him that
Danny
2:36
You guys had listed Vallot at 1B on the Royals list. Is that just your prediction/outlook (like putting a fringy 3B guy at 1B), or a decision the org has made?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:37
We don't think he can catch in a meaningful way long term, so that's our call. If Vlad Jr proves he's a fringy or better everyday 3B and sticks there, we'll gladly switch things like that, but we're trying to be realistic and predict the future so there's some margin for error
RyanW
2:37
Is the buzz on the Pirates that they're on pitching unless a college bat like Bart falls to them at 10? If so who are the prep pitchers this yr with crazy spin rates like Shane Baz who they've targeted in the past?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:37
If Carter Stewart gets to 10 I bet they take him and he's sliding a bit so it may happen. Notorious RPM.
P. Griddy
2:37
If you and Eric have a sizeable difference of opinion in a player when putting lists/rankings together, how do you guys usually come to an agreement of placement? Do you debate each other, split the difference, something else?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:38
Haven't had huge disagreements yet, or at least when we do, we break it down and usually see that one of us have new/different info and then we both fold that into what we know (via video or calling more scouts) and we end up pretty close.
Keith
2:38
Two Questions: Austin Bergner draft stock? Jordyn Adams steam?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:39
Adams has some momentum into the 13-22 range as it sounds like multiple teams were targeting him in the comp round so some teams are looking to jump the line. Bergner I saw a month ago and it was just okay, average stuff. More 4th-5th.
Dan
2:39
Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, and Mike Soroka have been massive successes to this point - and are the three youngest players in the league (go Braves). Will this trigger a trend for teams to move their prospects to the bigs more quickly?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:40
Well the Braves had the best farm system in baseball and they were all consensus top 30-40 prospects in the game, so I think every team is trying to get three players that good first, then figuring out how to promote them later
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