JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/22/18

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/22/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:06

Kiley is here but Scout needs a quick potty break, so we'll get going a few minutes behind schedule

12:14

Okay we are back

12:15

Quick update on my schedule: headed out tonight to see Mason Denaburg vs. Triston Casas in the FL state HS playoffs and will head out tomorrow morning to Clearwater to see Shane McClanahan face Wichita State in the AAC conference tourney, may run back over on Thursday to see Tim Cate as well, but may also stay here to see Florida/Tampa if the pitching lines up

Now to your questions...

Jim in Chicago

12:15

If Casey Mize doesn't go #1, where does he end up?

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won't get everything we would like to know pre draft.

12:18

What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he's a finished product, good in the sense that he's good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won't get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.

So

12:19

If he doesn't go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it's unclear where he would stop because we don't know what the info would be that caused him to slide

BUT

12:20

Using Jeff Hoffman or Mark Appel as a guide, in general an injury/signability concern slides you to the back of the top tier, which is about 5-7 players, so I would assume he still goes comfortably in the top 10 even if the medical is gruesome, which I don't think it is.

Fleer

12:20

Any chance Beer goes in the top 10?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

Cannot imagine how that happens, wouldn't rule out a little below slot in the 20's to an analytics-leaning team or one with multiple picks. I would guess 30-50 and lots of the industry has him lower than that.

Brian

12:22

How many of the top draft prospects would be considered to be on the top 100 prospects list?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

We are fine tuning the sortable draft board right now, should be done soon. I think we have 12 or 13 with a 50 FV or better, which would be top 135 or so. In the update of THE BOARD instead of stopping at 100, we're just gonna rank all the 50's so roughly a dozen players would jump into that. May still be about 135 total once the draft kids sign and you have graduations from the list

Russ

12:23

Any real concern with Ian Anderson's control? He's walking more guys than many expected.

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Should see him soon, but not worried. Still think it's the issue described in the Braves/top 100 prospect list of working 95 in the top of the zone, which both separately give lower level umpires problems but specifically together

Adam D.

12:24

What do you think the timetable would be for Bart? Big league debut in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

Only issue holding him back would be contact and catcher/shortstops often get promoted before completely dominating a level if the glove is ready. I'd say yes.

mlb fan

12:25

Ozzie Albies or Gleyber Torres ?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

OZZIE OZZIE OZZIE

Snapper Bean

12:25

Still think the Phillies are locked in on Bohm at 3?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

Yep, still could change but that's been the buzz on them for over a month

Sox Fan

12:26

Has Rolison's stock really fallen that much that he would be available at 26? It seemed like he was a safe bet to go top 15 until a few weeks ago.

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

He's had some bad starts and we just finished ranking college pitches and he slid a little further than we thought he would. Performance has just been okay, delivery needs a change, guys like Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch are a little better for us, but they're all close

Buff

12:27

It’s about time to ask about pop-up prospects. Who among young NL hitters have made the biggest jumps?

Juan Soto

12:27

JUAN. SOTO.

Hinkie

12:28

If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ? I guess this is a long way of asking ... how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???

Kiley McDaniel

12:31

Don't know how things play out if Mize doesn't go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we're probably not gonna like it either and there's still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he's 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.

Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we've talked to some people that would know and they're convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they've already moved on from Mize.

FIEND

12:32

GIVE US THE LATEST DRAFT BUZZ AT THE TOP I NEED IT.

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

WAS THAT BUZZY ENOUGH I'LL HANG UP AND LISTEN

Hinkie

12:32

Thoughts on Hogan Harris. Where does he get selected ?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

Got a good report on him a few weeks ago, has been up to 97 in relief, starter look once he got the chance, 3rd-5th area.

Joe

12:33

Are you locking in a Prep Pitcher to the Pirates at #10? Do you think they'll go underslot or attempt to? Any preferences of the guys that are in that range that would fit the Pirates system? or do you see a shift in the Pirates system away from high velocity and more towards high spin rates (a la Baz)?

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

Lots of guys in play there as there could be a player seen as a top 10 talent that slides to them (Liberatore, McClanahan, Stewart) and we've also heard some momentum for Winn, Larnach and Grayson Rodriguez there as well. Don't have the impression that from pick 9 on down really has a great sense who will be there for them, so don't think those teams really know who they will take yet, especially with pricetags on most of the these players coming into focus now that draft meetings are about to begin

Lilith

12:34

As far as the college hitters in the draft, do you know how the Reds would rank Bart, Madrigal, Bohm and India? And do they prefer Singer to all of them?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

2, 1, 3, 4 is our guess with Singer/Bart/Madrigal the top tier in some order

Darren

12:35

Biggest risers/fallers of the past couple of weeks?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

The aforementioned Daniel Lynch, LHP at UVA has lots of helium and not just because we're hearing about it late, he's been a different guy over the last month

Will

12:35

How has Christian pache looked this year?

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