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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/24/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:11
Hello! I've taken a mini vacation to regain my sanity from going to baseball games but I'm also still doing some work so I guess I can never really escape these things.
12:12
On a brighter note!
Went long on the Carter Stewart Japan signing and broke it down into six big takeaways from the signing, which I think is being underrated for it's long-term effects on the industry: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-scott-boras-got-carter-stewarts-groove...
12:13
Also went long once again on one topic: the international draft. Jeff Passan and Eric joined me to walk through all the parties involved, possible structure (trading of picks!!!), and motivations: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo...
A mock is coming next week. I would guess it will be on Tuesday and it will be different in format than the last one
12:14
Here is the previous one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/
After the one on Tuesday, I think we'll do another the morning of the draft and then one last one that's names only just before the draft starts
12:15
To your questions:
Dominican Dandy
12:15
Will the baseball industry in the DR look more like PR if they implement a draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
We go into this on the podcast, and there's lots of timestamps so you can see what topic we're on every few minutes, but I don't think so. I think MLB is doing this to take verbal deals with 13-year-olds off the table. I know drafts are to control costs, but the costs are already controlled and capped, so that isn't the primary motivation to go to a draft in this instance. And all parties are aware of the PR situation. I think the way that could happen is if they move the age to 18 and MLB mandates that every kid has to come through one of their academies and control the entire process. Don't think they want to do that.
Nick
12:18
Every year, there’s talk of toolsy but raw athletic types in the draft with “huge” upside. What are some MLB examples of guys that have come close or reached that potential?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Matt Kemp comes to mind first. Cody Bellinger was a projection guy. Out of HS (he didn't sign) Kris Bryant was another projection power type. Matt Chapman is a college version, where his college coaches taught the opposite of a pro approach but he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 65 raw power.
Rikki Tikki Tavi
12:21
Lots of talk about the Rangers going underslot at 8, and then overslot at 41 and/or 50.  Any indications about who they would be targeting with a later overslot deal?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
Any team planning this needs 3-5 options because there's multiple teams picking multiple times between your picks with more money than you have...so you can't get locked into one guy.
Miley KcDaniel
12:22
Why am I not hearing more about Jake Sanford? Where do you see him going?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:23
He's a 35+ on the board, so that's pretty strong from unknown to being on a prospect list the day he signs. Above to plus runner underway, fits in a corner, big raw power, huge season, late-blooming Canadian that was at a midwestern Juco last year, Western Kentucky this year. Chance to sneak in the late 2nd round, but more 3rd-4th is the buzz.
Cash Money Brothers
12:24
Will the recent spate of TJSs for the Rangers high school pitchers result in them shifting their strategy this year, at least with their premium picks?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
I have no idea, but I'll be interested to see if they're trigger shy on prep arms. I think I would be, but this seems to be more random bad luck because I couldn't draft that many TJs if I tried...so I tend to think it's predominantly bad luck.
D Back fan
12:26
Is Corbin Carroll slipping out of top 15?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
Seems likely to get out of the top 10, then the DBacks could buy him to 16 if he doesn't get there on merit
Mason Jarre
12:28
I'll make this simple - does baseball have a ball problem? Watching highlights last night you could see balls pinging off flyball swings and just keep carrying for HRs.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
You can count me in the camp that too many HR isn't a problem
Lilith
12:28
Any news on where Vaughn might go?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Still leaning 5th but that's not in stone
mamsk
12:29
O/U Austin Riley RoS wRC+: 110
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
I understand what this means but my parents would have no clue
I'll lean over
Roy TO
12:30
Any changes on who the Blue Jays are most linked to? Are you still hearing Carroll?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Mostly college players
Darren
12:30
On the draft version of the Board, is Adley really the only top 100 prospect in the draft?  How close are Witt/Vaughn to being a 55?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Nope all the 50's are on the top 135 or whatever it is now, we just shuffled them and didn't re-slot them yet. The top 5-6 would be in a top 100
Roy TO
12:31
If Noah Song didn't have the military requirement, would he be the best pitcher on the board?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
He's ranked on the draft board independent of military service, so no
Spider Puig
12:31
At this point, are there any top 6 teams that are looking at taking someone other than the top 6 hitters? What are the chances, in your opinion, that one of those 6 is available for the Reds at 7?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
The top 6 seems locked in, in some order. Obviously all those clubs have a group of players they're looking at, so SDP/6 has to consider players outside the group. I'd say maybe a 10% chance one sneaks to CIN/7, but it may be lower than that.
And I think CIN will take someone that you aren't expecting as a result
Ben
12:33
Do you think Riley Greene will move up quickly throughout his minor league career? In general, when talking about HS prospects, if they are hit-tool first, do they typically get promoted quicker than other HS prospects? Thx
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
Generally speaking, yes. Greene's closest comp is probably Alex Kirilloff, so it could be that quick.
Sheeple
12:33
Why isn't George Kirby ranked higher? He's having a historical season K-BB% wise
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
He's also pitching at Elon and reports on the secondary stuff vary
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