JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/29/19

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Hello from ATL, I'm back home and just got back from lunch. Scout is in the backyard policing the squirrel/chipmunk population and occasionally glaring at me through the window when she wants a play partner.

1:08

Today Eric and I published our latest mock, this time the full 78 picks that go on day one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-3-0-two-rounds/

With that nav bar at the top of the page you can see what else we have planned for draft week, including a few things that are draft-related that aren't up there

1:09

Lastly, your questions about which player we prefer at this moment for the draft, or any future draft, or for July 2 or for the minors can all be answered at THE BOARD, which is quickly reaching ludicrous size: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0

1:10

If the Phillies go underslot for Hoese or Henderson, any names they could float to 71? That's a long way.

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

Yeah that would be tough. We don't think they cut much from that pick and often when the savings+overage is about $1M and the gap to the next pick is long, it doesn't all get spent on the 2nd pick. You'd need to target 4-6 players that all have a chance to get to 71 to have any real chance of getting one there. Often just taking what gets to you for slot is a better plan

Lots of questions like this bc we've learned that every fan wants every pick to both be best player available, highest upside, be overslot, won't be a bust and set up another overslot pick. The Lake Wobegon Effect lives on!

Braník Best

1:13

Not sure if you'll answer non-Draft questions, but is Seth Beer becoming a dude? 45 FV in midseason update?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

The more he hits, the higher the chance this is real

Jeb

1:13

If the first two picks for the Pirates went as your mock went, Priester and Henderson, would that be about as well as it could go for the Pirates with those two picks?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

Yeah that's the floor for Priester and Henderson has a shot to go right around their first pick

1:14

Kyle McCann has filled Joey Bart's shoes nicely at Georgia Tech. How does he project as a prospect? I see his name in the late second round in the Mock Draft 3.0

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

4 defender with a 5 arm and 3 run, so it's a longshot to be a long-term starting caliber defensive catcher, but he's passable back there for now and it could be a 4 bat with 6 power and the approach/swing that fits his tools. A league average bat that can passably catch is crazy rare these days.

Tommy N.

1:15

Chances Padres pass on Vaughn if he falls to 6?

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

There is a chance, but it's unlikely enough that we aren't sure what they do

Tom

1:15

How significantly underslot would Stowers be for LA at 31? Considering you have them w/ Jones at 78 is it safe to assume they’re planning to push a high priced prep player down?

Kiley McDaniel

1:16

I think he would go in the 2nd round, so it would be below but probably not a crazy amount. Maybe $600K to $1M below?

Big Fan

1:17

Comps are stupid, but I honestly have no idea how good Bobby Witt Jr. could be. Who does he have the potential to be as good as?

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

Mentioned this a few times, and it isn't perfect, but Trevor Story is similar to what he could become

Vander

1:17

How likely is it that one of the big 6 bats at the top of the draft falls to 7? Who's most likely, and would the Reds take him if it happened? What kind of scenarios should Reds fans be looking out for in order for this to happen?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

I think CIN wants almost all of those six bats and would take any of them that get there, will go underslot if they don't. Call it 10% chance they get one of them at this point?

lil jimmy

1:18

Michael Toglia finished strong. Do you think he moved up in the draft or still late second round area?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

Some buzz he could sneak into the comp round, but would guess 2nd round.

Tyler

1:18

How likely do you think it is, as a percentage, that the White Sox will take Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

75%

BlueJayMatt

1:19

Any chance Lodolo or Manoah drops to Jays at pick 11? Would that be the pick if they did fall?

Kiley McDaniel

1:20

That's another pick where it isn't clear what gets to them because teams aren't sure what happens 7-9. They could have their pick of all but one pitcher and we think they have Rutledge at the top of those with a shot to get there, but aren't sure of the order behind that.

Ben

1:21

Noticed Rece Hinds’s position was changed to RF. Do scouts think it’s not likely he can play 3rd?

Kiley McDaniel

1:21

I'm sure he'll start his pro career at 3B, but I think RF would be an industry consensus if we took a poll, though not 100%

Sean

1:21

Kiley, Thoughts on Brandon Lewis at UC-Irvine?

Kiley McDaniel

1:21

R/R likely 1B that's performing, in play for the 4th-6th round range

Roger

1:22

Is Brett Baty's age really going to an issue in the long run? Kelenic was older when he was drafted and yet you never hear anything about it now as he gets promoted to HiA.

Kiley McDaniel

1:24

Baty is 19.6 on draft day and Kelenic was 18.9. There's lots of high picks that are 18.9ish and almost none that are 19.6ish. Also age matters a ton specifically for high school hitters in the first few rounds, so a few months will move a guy in a model.

1:25

Abrams is 18.7 and it doesn't really come up, Kelenic was 18.9 and it came up some, Witt is 19.0 and it comes up a good bit...which is about how it should be, empirically

SpicyBoy

1:25

Why isn't Kody Hoese more highly-regarded? Any chance he gets to #30?

Kiley McDaniel

1:26

Everyone passed on him last year at low six figures and now everyone thinks he's worth at least $2 million, so there's some CYA in not regarding him too high. Similar thing happened with Tim Anderson as a JC sophomore mid-1st rounder that wasn't drafted as a freshman. I don't think Hoese and Jonathan India are that different, which will be covered in an article this week.

Weenie

1:26

What are the chances Corbin Carroll falls to the Mariners at pick 20?

Kiley McDaniel

1:27

Maybe 15%? I think if he got there, it wouldn't be "falling" per se.

Roddy

1:27

Does CJ Abrams compare at all to Francisco Lindor at the time he was drafted?

Kiley McDaniel

1:28

Sort of? The raw tools are comparable, Abrams may be a bit better but he's also about a year older than Lindor was on draft day. Lindor had clearly superior defensive actions and polish, probably would say instincts as well.

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