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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/12/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:10
Hello from ATL where Scout is passed out next to me from a busy day of napping. Some quick self-promotion before we get started
12:11
Last week was draft week! You can find all the draft content in the widget on the home page https://www.fangraphs.com/ or our up to the second rankings of everyone and everything at https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=...
12:12
12:13
and lastly, so those interested, we have a new top 100 and all the team lists have movement, graduations taken off, draft (all top 10 rounders or confirmed later signs) are added. I would guess that comes out this week since we're just doing clerical stuff now like filling out blurbs and whatnot. Possibly Monday.
Eric is at PG National this week and I'll be hitting the summer circuit starting a few weeks from now, so if you're 2020 draft curious, peek THE BOARD for updates as we learn them https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...
12:14
to your questions:
Timmy
12:14
Has Yordan Alvarez warranted an upgrade in his FV hitting grades? Also which prospect do you think is most likely to take a yordan-like huge step forward next?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
Yep, he's sliding up but also is somewhat limited in where he can go, like not much higher than Alonso was preseason, basically
12:17
we currently have 81 players with up arrows (meaning eligible for lists this winter and in a different place now) and 45 down arrows. We didn't go fine-toothed comb through every single list, but focused on the top 200 types and easy, low-hanging fruit since there's so much movement in this update
NYY has lots of new guys added to the back of their list based on teenagers emerging, pitcher health/performance
12:18
BOS was our lowest-ranked system and their top 2 guys are arrow up right now, among others
Phillie Phanatic
12:18
Has the outlook on Alec Bohm changed at all, or is this what was expected of him (high batting average, low K rate, etc.)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
That's the type of hitter he was as an amateur. We hoped he would make some adjustments to tap into more power but that may never happen/take awhile. Reports we've gotten this spring are he's more likely to move to 1B than at draft time.
Shawn
12:19
What makes Brady Singer a great prospect? He seems to lack swing and miss stuff yet I keep hearing all his pitches have the potential to be above average. What do you think of him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
Stuff flashes 55, lots of life, above command, low slot, aggressive, performs, sequences well, big kid, is now using CH he rarely used in college. That's the positives
12:20
On the negative it's no plus pitch, some teams had him off the board due to the arm action, sinker w/solid not amazing stuff isn't where the game is going
but also Soroka has been pretty good with this general profile, but a tick more stuff and also a bit of an outlier, which you don't want to count on
Mike
12:21
Have you heard anything on Atlanta signing their HS picks from round 11-19 (Vaughn Grissom, Tyler Owens, Jared Johnson, Joey Estes, Makhi Backstrom, Kadon Morton)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
In general, 11-20 round HS players are taken with the thought there's some real shot to sign them or a deal is done ahead of time. Beyond round 20 is when you start seeing the shot in the dark, 5-10% chance types. This also depends on how many players the team will sign from the draft. If they're signing 20 and those are all locked up on draft day, then round 21-40 is all backup options and shots in the dark. For other teams that could start round 33.
12:24
We hear a good bit of off-the-record buzz about X prospect is the backup option for Y, or we expect to sign these 5 HS kids but that's pending physical/last second change of heart, so we generally hold off until things are official
Al Avila
12:24
What do Casey Mize and Matt Manning have to do to move up THE BOARD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
Wait until the first update and POOF they will
Brendumb
12:24
What kind of profile do you see a guy like Heston Kjerstad having at the major league level? Big kid who seems to be athletic. I really like him.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
Yeah it's 60 raw, real loose swing, classic RF profile but was a little too aggressive in pitch selection this year, so if he can dial that in then it could be Josh Reddick-ish
When can addi
12:25
When can adding fashion/food preferences to THE BOARD? SOrtable?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
We had some stuff ahead of that on the wish list, but we'll get there
12:26
Siri, sort THE BOARD by highest affinity for Gucci loafers and unnecessary uses of truffle
Adi
12:26
Why is Fangraphs lower on the royals farm system compared to most other websites. Granted it’s not too good, but fangraphs has it as a bottom tier one compared to others that have it closer to middle of the pack
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
In general, our system for grading the farm systems highly values top 200 types and has the depth (40s) as very low value. This also mirrors real life where you can't trade five 40's for a 50. I could see us overvaluing depth of 40's if we're just eyeballing it.
12:28
So bc the Royals didn't have a 50 this offseason (they will add Witt in the update), unless the list has 40 players, it'll be hard to break out of the bottom third
There are also some holes in how we present offseason farm rankings here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/
12:29
Teams that are high variance like NYY (tons of teenagers on the list) should probably go up since a 35+ or 40 busting means they move off the list and are likely replaced by another moving up, but a couple 40s turning into 50s make a huge difference
and, as explained in the article, concentrating your farm value in fewer players can also round you up, we just don't have an empirical way to do that yet
12:30
And those rankings don't reflect new draft guys or guys moving up early, so I would imagine we'll run an update post July 15th draft signing deadline once we know who signs and can set a benchmark pre trade deadline
So, I'm sure KC will be moving up steadily at each of these markers in time
Bob
12:30
Any news on what the Mets will be giving Baty/Wolf/Allan and/or if they will be striking any surprising deals with third day preps?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
I would bet they sign those three and the seniors
Eminor3rd
12:31
Was surprised to see Bleday jump Vaughn on your board at the last minute. Should the White Sox have drafted Bleday? Or is the answer "splitting hairs, depends on org preference"?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
We have them 46th and 48th in the update, so yeah it's a total coinflip
12:32
I would guess the industry is like 60/40 for Vaughn?
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