JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 6/5/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Yes, but also going like 50 deep on that market doesn't seem like the best use of our time when we can have much better reports in instructs in the fall...most int'l scouts haven't seen these guys for at least 6-12 months so the reports are really iffy

12:58

(because they get early deals and disappear from being widely scouted)

Tone

12:58

Re: Matthew Allan, do you have any idea if that just emerged as the Mets’ strategy overnight when they saw Allan was still available and confirmed his #? Or did they really gun for it from the start, knowing going into the draft that Baty and Wolf could be underslot at their first two picks?

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

sounds like the decision was made after the Wolf pick/overnight

pelkey

12:59

lots of braves questions, i see. but that just makes me think they actually DID have as bad a draft as i feel they did

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

There's always a few fanbases outraged after the draft about how their picks weren't publicly ranked as high as they wanted, or not the right type or demographic. Since that happened and it's a big shift from a process that worked pretty well in the past just purely looking at results, I can see why they're reacting. Changing doesn't mean getting worse, obviously.

Guest

1:00

Are you going to do farm system updates after the draft or make us plug the numbers in ourselves

Kiley McDaniel

1:01

we will be doing it, that's a big reason why we add all the top 10 rounders to the systems so we can have that done before the signing deadline, then adjust for the 2-3 guys that don't sign

Steve

1:01

Can you briefly explain how draft models work?

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

they're all different, but the idea is that there's so much information on these players that a model can synthesize it all dispassionately and also take into account historic trends (like HS bats that are young are better than you think) and make a board for you

1:03

some teams slavishly let the model basically make the picks, other use it for a sanity check, some let the scouting reports make up over half the model and basically just have the model round up/down on the reports using all the other data. Some basically marginalize the scout's opinion or box them into only being worth a small range of $x to $y because he doesn't have certain peripherals regardless of the report

1:04

so we'll mention model team but try to say like CLE like young HS bats and showcase performers, PIT likes big pitchers, velo, exit velo, doesn't mind older prospects, etc. b/c each model has it's own quirks and the best way to find out is look at who they took over a couple years

Hoss

1:04

Who do you like better as a prospect Corbin Carroll or Alek Thomas?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

Pretty close, not positive what order they'll be in on the updated ARI list

Matthew

1:05

I'm surprised at how many pitchers the yankees drafted. Why do you think they did that when their best prospects are mostly pitchers

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

Their scouting/PD process I think is very good and I think the pitching process is even better relative to other teams than the hitting process. So leverage your strengths and take some arms

1:06

not to say they aren't good at hitting stuff, obviously

and that's often, any given year, more a function of your board than strategy

Connor

1:06

Know anything about Gavin Collyer? Rangers took him in the 12th round

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Flashes some 55 stuff, more average consistently, scouts thought he'd probably go to school but never heard what the number was

You guys rock

1:09

Please take a long restful vacation after this. I can't believe all this content is being put out by two people on a free sight. Thanks for answering my question. Yall are awesome!

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

I'm debating where to go, but am open to suggestions

Clarity

1:09

You said of Langeliers: "Chance for 5 bat, 5 power, 6 defense. usually catchers underperform the tools/upside offensively". Did you mean that he likely won't reach those 5s for bat and power or those are conservative due to Cs underperforming?

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

the tools, or if he played 3B, would suggest a shot for 5/5 on the offense, but I think being a catcher means it will be less

mark

1:10

Why does AJ Preller like soft tossing lefty's so much?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

Lucchesi and Lauer and Margevicius seem to have worked out pretty well so far

Matthew

1:10

About the question about the Dodgers and Astros being "far ahead of *everyone* in *everything*," wouldn't the Yankees and Rays be up there too

Kiley McDaniel

1:11

yep they're also on the list as generally good at almost everything

romorr

1:11

Stowers and Maverick, any swing change now that they are away from Stanford?

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

Stanford isn't a problem place for swings anymore. Well, any one swing could be bad but they aren't blanket teaching dumb stuff anymore

Nate

1:12

Do you have any thoughts on the Astros recently overhauled (and thoroughly numbers based) scouting department? Think it's something that'll still produce good results for them, or have they finally gone too far with pushing the Moneyball envelope?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

I liked most of their picks and really liked what BAL did, so obviously going model/numbers heavy isn't an inherent problem like you automatically get worse players

there's some secondary issues that come with it, but getting good players is kinda the aim

Sean

1:13

When you say Arizona was going after "trackman friendly high slot" pitchers, can you give more detail on what that means?

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

Progressive clubs, and some progressive college programs like Arkansas/Vanderbilt preach high arm slots because that one fix can both get more rise on your fastball (which means more whiffs, all things being equal) and more break on your curveball by making the spin on both pitches more 12-6. It helps reduce less gyrospin (bullet spin) on a CB and side spin (think lower slot, sinker type) on a FB

Verlander is a FB/CB guy and has talked publicly multiple times about how HOU helped him do this

1:16

this is also why they tend to prefer FB/CB guys because that slot doesn't really change the effectiveness of a SL, may actually hurt it, but helps a CB

1:17

so good raw spin at a low slot FB/CB means there could be notable appreciation in value/effectiveness by just moving the slot. Chance for arbitrage with a good PD staff and some luck, if you will.

Charlie

1:17

James Beard, Tim Anderson, LouBob foot race. Who you got?

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

Beard could be the fastest man in pro baseball. It would need to be something like him and Billy Hamilton and Buxton to be close

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