JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/18/18

Kiley McDaniel

12:09

Hello and welcome to this baseball chat. First some links

Eric wrote about how African American players stood out at the Futures Game and also in the 2019 draft class and what that could mean: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-futures-game-was-black/

12:10

And I'm currently going through the annual trade value rankings, with 21 thru 30 likely getting posted during this chat: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-31-to-40/

Tony Womack

12:10

Sanchez's WAR projections seemed low. Would his ranking differ if he was projected 3-4 WAR?

Kiley McDaniel

12:11

Struck me as a little low as well. The WAR figures for catchers impact the rankings the least, since they don't include framing and the non-WAR abilities that catchers bring to the table (handling a staff, mental game, etc.) are the most notable of any other position.

Sats

12:11

Is Victor Victor Mesa a potential top 25 prospect, and what kind of grades would you put on his tools

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Not in his current form, but he's currently doing the typical Cuban thing of disappearing for a month or two, getting in insane shape and probably will show slightly better tools in his open workout, which will probably be in about a month. We've heard mixed things on his hit tool against top competition and there isn't a ton of game power, with more than a few scouts saying he's Albert Almora, or a dynamic player that's defense over offense with potential for more.

Sandy Eggo

12:13

Can players have different skill evaluations at different positions? Tatis Jr. unleashed a monster throw from 3B in the futures game. Does his 60 arm at SS play more as a 65 or 70 there?

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

That does vary position to position for some guys and it's the same for others. Obviously the process of throwing from the OF or different spots in the IF involves slightly different mechanics, so some agree better with a certain player.

Adam

12:14

It seems like Keone Kela is not highly valued in the national trade market conversations, but shouldn't he be valued at a similar level as Ken Giles before his trade? Kela even has more success in the closer role. Could the Giles deal be in reach for Kela?

Kiley McDaniel

12:16

For late inning relievers, the mental makeup is key. Some teams whispered when Giles was traded that they didn't think he had the mental strength to handle the big moment and that's been at least somewhat true. Kela has some concerns going all the way back to his amateur days that I know at least some teams are skeptical of him in that sort of role.

HappyFunBall

12:16

This years trade value series already has a couple of guys listed who've yet to see appreciable time in the majors, and will likely have at least two more (Soto, Acuna) who are <200 career PAs. Is this a difference in methodology (you vs. Cameron), a difference in how the industry is valuing prospects, or just that this year's young kids are better than most other years?

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

Dave and I both leaned towards what teams told us, so don't think since I do more work on prospect stuff than I'm overvaluing the young players. Obviously, given what happened this offseason, the industry is shifting more than usual towards young players and with Trackman/StatCast we can better pinpoint if a hot start to a career seems sustainable or lines up with minor league trackman data, etc. There's more/better advance scouting for the young players as well. So I think the youngsters are generally a little better bets than in the past and the clubs are certainly valuing them more highly, independent of that.

Schiraldi

12:18

This time of year, we get so many reports about scouts from particular teams watching particular players. How is this so obvious? Is there a designated section scouts have to sit in? (Or are there only a few sections that have the right sightlines?) Are scouts required to wear team shirts or caps to sit there? Do beat reporters simply know by face hundreds of scouts from other teams? How do reporters know that a particular scout is not doing normal coverage -- do they know who does normal coverage, and know whose appearance would be unusual?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

They generally all sit in a pretty tight section in big league parks, since most don't have huge swaths of empty seats to allow them to sit anywhere. So, yeah, they do all generally sit in the same section every game. In the lower minors with more open seats they spread out more, so it's a little harder. They generally don't wear team logos but usually have team logos on something they are carrying. And in the majors, they usually eat in press dining and sign in somewhere either for dinner or tickets, so anyone with the home team knows exactly who is where and most journalists can figure it out. Some scouts are friendly with the beat writers to get info on players that isn't written, too.

Schiraldi

12:21

In the Walker Buehler trade value write-up you wrote: "Walker is one of the rare prospects who gets the coveted “has a chance to become be an ace” label that’s only true of a handful of pitchers on Earth at a given time." Among minor leagues, who gets that label from scouts now? Is it no one at all, or just Whitley? Seems like Honeywell, Keller, Sanchez, Mize et al are a bit short of that

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Whitley, Sixto, Kopech, Gore is probably the list right now. Someone could swap in/out a player or two to that group.

Bravesy McBravesface

12:22

Do you think there is a deal the Braves could make for deGrom that both sides could actually agree to?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Don't think Mets ownership would trade him in division unless it's an insane overpay.

12:23

Follow-up to the amateur level question: where could/should a first-round HS talent be assigned to MiLB ball and be expected to struggle or succeed? Does it matter what their background is? Full disclosure: I'm a Cards fan and want to know how much stock to put in Gorman's numbers in Rookie ball.

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

The more advanced, top 15-20 overall pick hitters generally do a week or two at the complex league, then finish in the level above that, generally hit about 100 wRC+ or better. If you're besting that by a good margin, then it's good. If you aren't, it's possibly bad but also probably not a big deal.

Rob

12:24

Are you warming up on Buddy Reed and think he has a MLB future?

Kiley McDaniel

12:25

I'm starting to get the feeling that there's some Lewis Brinson here. By that I mean an amateur tool shed with a bad swing and/or iffy approach where the athleticism is so good that the right teachers can essentially teach him how to hit. Wouldn't ever project that sort of thing to happen, but would certainly (if I were a team) gamble on that sort of guy in the right spot.

12:25

Hey Kiley, can you compare/contrast the tools of Adell and Jordyn Adams? Does Adams have a chance to follow a similar path based on his ++ athleticism? Ultimately who do you think has a higher ceiling?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Adell is more of a corner guy with 70 power and enough hit tool to get to it. Adams is an 80 runner, CF for sure that might be a plus hitter with above average power but he's played so little we don't really know what he'll be. Not the same type, but similarly huge ability.

Zock Jr.

12:26

Great article today from Eric. Very encouraging news for the future of the sport!

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

Agree! Of our unpublished, longer 2019 draft rankings, 10 of the top 32 are African American, so this is at least a really good run if not the beginning of a larger trend.

Bravesy McBravesface

12:27

Do you think the Braves will switch their draft strategy next year since they're guaranteed the 9th overall pick to take a college player, or do you think they'll double down on the prep players?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

I can guarantee you they have no idea, but the class is college hitter heavy, so I'd bet it ends up there just playing the odds.

12:29

Thoughts on Kristian Robinson

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Crazy athlete with big upside and some present feel that's got a lot of scouts excited and he's performing. Wander Franco is the best prospect in short season right now and I don't have all the other candidates in front of me, but he's up there.

Depressed Orioles Fan

12:30

Who can we get excited about for the 2019 draft?

Kiley McDaniel

12:31

If you want to know about elite draft eligible prospects, we've got you covered until 2021: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2019mlb&type=0&pos=all...

Scott

12:31

MLB trade value seems very volatile. Guys like Archer, Conforto, and Ender Inciarte can drop fairly dramatically without any big injury or contact change. You note Archer dropped because he got a year closer to free agency, but he's still on a team friendly long term deal.

Do you think teams aren't valuing consistency enough when they rank players? Presumably Archer wasn't actually the 17th most valuable player last year if he's suddenly not in the top 50. Or is the answer just that baseball is volatile and there are lots of new cheap players every year so the TR will over course be volatile?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

I've been skeptical of Archer for a couple years now since at one point (I believe it's still true), he threw more sliders than any pitcher in recorded history over a multi-year sample. That doesn't mean his arm will explode but it's generally not a good sign, independent of anything else.

12:33

So, like how I've outlined that certain extreme players like Scherzer or Tatis are valued differently by different clubs based on payroll/record, there are also players where the type of player they are or recent injury past will cause clubs, independent of payroll/record, to disagree pretty strongly on value.

12:34

And if one of the injury concern guys gets hurt, the value drops a lot. If a guy that you think won't age well starting declining a little early, you hit him harder. Conversely if a hyped prospect has a hot 6 weeks, you bump him more than you bump Aguilar or Muncy, etc.

Kev

12:34

Hiya Kiley. Who's fault is it that Hader still had those tweets in his timeline? I blame the PR guy for the Brewers. There's got to be an intern going through each acquired player's social media presence on every team, flagging harmful and immature content...

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

You'd think with the various versions of this that teams and agents would get on top of it. I blame the agent more because this may now affect Hader's earning potential, and thus the agents, for multiple years. The club has hundreds of players they own the rights to, so given current staffing, it's a little unrealistic to think they're gonna go back 10 years on all of them, even if they should. Also, the player should also be aware with how these things blow up to deal with this on their own, too.

Marvin

12:36

How does a young hitter like Contreras outperform his xWOBA every year?

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