JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/24/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:29

I had to explain that Brinson was a swing and miss type with crazy tools that had a lower K rate because his tools didn't allow him to be tested until MLB, so his AAA K rate makes him seem lower risk than he is

1:30

and Bellinger is power-focused, does it well and is an athlete with bat control (important distinction), so his approach was a conscious tradeoff and was mature in that it would work in AA similarly to how it would work in MLB

1:31

which is not obvious even from reading our reports closely, though you may pick up that sort of nuance if you're a long-time reader

1:32

I bring all this up to say that while I'm not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he's so toolsy he can't be challenged in AAA. We've heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he'll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won't challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna).

1:34

Another recent White Sox super prospect, Yoan Moncada had an issue somewhere between Bellinger and Brinson, in that he was a little stiff and didn't have elite bat control, but had a good approach, so he just needed to dial in his approach to do maximum damage when the right pitch was there and realize he wouldn't be a career .300 hitter.

1:35

It took Moncada about 900 PA to make an improvement (he's been pretty BABIP lucky this year, so the improvement is a little overstated) but we've said before that we'd much rather have a Moncada-type because the pitch selection and power means you'll always get to the power in games since you can pick pitches to drive, you just may hit .250 or whatever (but w/solid OBP).

1:37

The other type of player, Brinson/Robert will have trouble getting to the power in games against elite pitching due to poorer pitch selection, also not walk much, so at least until an adjustment is made (if it is made), it's empty batting average driven by bat control and people waiting for the breakout.

Explaining this in detail a few times makes me think we should grade plate discipline and bat control when elite hitting prospects are in the upper minors to help classify which sort of hitter each guy is.

1:38

So, the much shorter version is that Robert probably won't be a 60 FV for us because to prove that he's clear of the Lewis Brinson trap will probably take most of an MLB season to prove, given that we don't think he'll change in Triple-A.

(thus he will have graduated the prospect list when/if he proves it)

James

1:39

Is there any information on the where the top 2020 J2 players are anticipated to sign, assuming there isn't an international draft?

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

We have an internal sheet with dozens of players and the deals we know about, along with fewer top 2021s and the same info. Not sure when we want to publish it? Haven't really discussed how far in advance of signing day we want to publicize this stuff.

Jason N

1:40

Kiley!! What’s a better use of Kirby Yates: packaging him with the Wil Myers contract (using the financial flexibility in the off-season to go after an ace), or aiming for even more prospects to add to the pile?

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

In a totally rational/efficient market, it should yield the same benefit. That said, I don't think teams want to take on negative surplus deals to save flexibility and I wonder if SD would go spend a bunch of money if they dumped Myers deal with all the youngsters coming now? You'd also be selling low on Myers, so I would probably hold him and hope he recoups value.

Clodd

1:43

Farm Value update to THE BOARD rules. It's also encouraging to Mariners fans to see that high Avg. $ number, but a bunch of 50s still feels a bit star-starved. Which - if any - of their 50-55 guys have a reasonable shot at becoming 60-70/star level guys?

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

Kelenic probably will if he keeps doing this, same for Julio Rodriguez

Peter

1:46

What is with the hype on Nolan Gorman? I understand that the power is there, but the hit tool seems like a huge question mark

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

Based on him striking out a little above league average when he crushed the Midwest League at 19 and got promoted? That's pretty flimsy evidence when you look at age vs. level. Gorman is closer to the Bellinger end of things, btw, as a solid approach guy that's trying to hit for power, is pretty mature for his age in that approach and could hit for more average if he chose to. Not the same level of athlete/bat control as Bellinger, obviously, just toward his end of that spectrum.

Jay

1:48

What do you see for Yordan Alvarez in the next year or so - hot start or sustainable high-end bat?

Kiley McDaniel

1:49

Teams seem sold on what he currently is continuing. He has older guy skills and is probably a DH, so that means he could regress sooner than more conventionally athletic players, but this seems real, even if 185 wRC+ isn't really sustainable long-term.

John

1:50

I think Bohm is already better than Franco. I know it is a big jump but would you just bring him up? He cant be worse than Franco can he? Moniak's walk rates are really improving. At what point can we believe he will sustain them? Has his improvements this year changed your outlook on him?

Kiley McDaniel

1:50

just letting you guys see the kind of questions I don't normally publish

reminds me of the "Jeff McNeil is Ichiro" guy in the Trade Value Rankings comment section

D back fan

1:50

With Song signing for 100k and a decent shot at deferring his commitment, are you surprised no one popped him sooner given he was a late first early second talent?

Kiley McDaniel

1:51

Yeah, I am. Everyone seems to agree he was a 2nd round talent and almost no 2nd rounder is making the big leagues in the next couple of years, while Song is very polished so he won't take a ton longer than his peers. The risk is that he's 24-25 when you get him and he's rusty, but to discount a 7-figure talent to 100k seems like an overreaction due to a unknown that can't really be that bad

1:52

scouts hate unknowns, but there seems to be a cap on how bad this one could be

John

1:52

Does Pache's game power still grade out at 20/45? Seems like he's gotten to it a lot more consistently this year.

Kiley McDaniel

1:53

Pache is more on the Robert/Brinson end of the spectrum btw. A little too aggressive, getting by on raw talent for now, could take some time to reach his true talent level in MLB in terms of wRC+

Jack

1:53

Is Ke'Bryan Hayes going to be like a Matt Chapman with less power?

Kiley McDaniel

1:54

Similar skills, so it's possible, but wouldn't expect 3-5 WAR type

John

1:54

Morosi had a hypothetical trade this morning between the Braves and the Pirates. Felipe Vazquez for Drew Waters and Kyle Muller. Would you do that if you were Neil Huntington?

Kiley McDaniel

1:55

I've heard Waters and Pache are the two guys off the table in any talks for ATL, since you can imagine sellers are hoping to deal with ATL , TBR, LAD among the contenders, if you were to consult our new farm rankings!

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

Jake

1:56

Priester is off to a good start. Could he turn into a guy that could become a #2-3 type starter down the road like Keller has seemed to?

Kiley McDaniel

1:56

Yeah, they have some similarities in terms of projection Midwest arms with a wide base of skills, SP traits.

Vroom Vroom Guy

1:57

What do you miss most/least about working for a team?

Kiley McDaniel

1:58

Being tied to the outcome of the team or a specific player. That's the one thing you can only have on the team side. I'd argue almost every other aspect is better on this side.

Andy

1:59

Jonathan Stiever (CWS 5th Rounder, 2018) is absent from The Board but 122 K's vs. 22 BB's in 113 IP across two A ball levels. Reports that he's touching 98. Any chatter on him?

Kiley McDaniel

1:59

Yep, he's on our list of guys to add, so he'll probably be appearing in the next day or so?

Matt

1:59

A Whitley led package for Thor, who says no? The Astros get a top line starter to slot in behind Verlander and Cole this year and replace Cole if he leaves via FA. The Mets get a young controllable potential front line starter who would have been untouchable a few months ago. Maybe throw Josh James in a secondary piece so he finally gets a chance to start somewhere.

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