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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/25/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Sorry for the delay, just wrapping up a call. We'll be rolling out the updated prospect lists in the coming days, leading up to the deadline.
12:29
ICYMI I did the Trade Value series last week and a think piece on trade value and which teams have the best trade ammunition https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-teams-could-even-trade-for-lindo...
Jeb
12:29
What is Travis Swaggerty's upside?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
50 hit, 60 power, 50 D in CF. Could be a 3-4 win guy
Guest
12:30
Think about Jalen Beeks Rays just acquired
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Mike
12:31
While recognizing I'm getting way ahead of myself, how does Atlanta handle the CF position in the future? Inciarte is a gold glover, seems like most scouting reports agree Acuña can handle it, Pache's scouting reports are hyping elite defense and Drew Waters is off to a crazy offensive start.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
I would imagine when Pache is ready, Inciarte's deal is winding down and he's more of a 2-win guy. Acuna and Waters are both fine in CF, enough power to profile as above average defenders in a corner.
Skye McRocky Pup
12:32
Have you had a chance to see Logan Davidson? And if so, do you see him being a top pick next year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Missed him this spring due to a rainout but have talked to a half dozen guys that have seen him the last few months. Sounds like chance for above power, can run a little, chance to stick at short, question is on how much contact there will be
12:33
Any questions about 2019, 2020 or 2021 draft classes, THE BOARD is updated for all three classes and will be expanded in the second half of August after the summer stuff ends https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2019mlb&type=0&pos=all...
OddBall Herrera
12:33
Not a huge Beeks fan, but I have to think that even if they get several years of a 4/5 starter out of him in exchange for 2 months of an injury prone guy whose results never match his peripherals, that's a bin win
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
And that's a good example of how to use excess payroll for a small market club that isn't necessarily a contender. Don't just sign a guy to sign a guy and burn the money in a year where you don't need it. Sign an injured/speculative Wilson Ramos and Eovaldi, frontload the money and have the performance/trade value come in the future when you have a better chance to be competing or the gamble on creating trade value can pay off.
PhilG
12:36
Do u think FV does a fine job catching a prospect’s future fantasy upside, or do u think FV needs tweaking for fantasy purposes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
It's focused on the whole player, so there's plenty of defense/position mixed in there that doesn't matter as much for fantasy. But if you want more just hit/power/speed types, we have a sortable board of tools for you to sort until you find the sort of guys you want https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&po...
the dude
12:38
Its has been mentioned that predicting health/preventing injuries maybe be the next market inefficiency that a teams try to exploit do you know of any teams that have tried to tackle the issue of UCL problems at a genetic level? Ethics are obviously a massive concern but I was curious if any baseball department has turned to genetics to try to help predict health issues. Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
There would definitely be some answers there, don't know that any club has tried it, though.
The Old Buccaneer
12:39
How do you compare what the O’s got for Britton to the Rays getting Beeks for Eovaldi?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
a low 45, 40 and 35+ for Britton vs. a 45 for Eovaldi. Not super different.
John
12:41
Hi Kiley, is Josh Naylor a better-in-fantasy guy? He doesn't seem to show up on the lists.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Yeah it's all hit/power with not much in the way of speed/defense/position
Charles
12:41
Any comps for Adonis Medina? What’s his ceiling look like?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
Flashes three plus pitches and average command, which is, if he keeps doing that, #2 starter stuff. So go check out the 12th to 30th best starters in baseball--he could be that good. Maybe Nola's stuff but a little less feel?
12:43
Obviously doesn't look much like Nola physically, but that's how I graded Nola's pitches when he was 21.
Ryan from Pittsburgh
12:43
Hey Kiley, given your experience grading prospects, I'm wondering if you have a philosophy on team building. For example, the Pirates seem to be stuck in a never ending cycle of "almost being there". Do you think relying too much on prospect development is the right way to go or do you feel using those prospects as assets to acquire sure things is a better path to a championship. I'm starting to wonder if Huntington is simply trying to keep his job and "hope" for the best instead of trying to build a legitimate contender. Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
There's a lot of different ways to handle this. If you're a bigger market club, you can shoot to have a wave of premium prospects come up around the same time, extend the best ones, and have the money to supplement them. The Cubs did this correctly, the Mets did not, the Royals did it with less money and weren't really able to extend any of the guys (except Alex Gordon).
12:47
If you're a smaller market club, you don't have the margin for error to hope most of your premium prospects turn into guys at the same time AND to also spend to supplement, so you shoot to have waves of guys and depth in the farm so you can supplement when a core materializes. TB, OAK, PIT, etc. do a version of this and are perpetually looking to both buy and sell, looking to grab value where it is to push them to either the contend/rebuild end of the spectrum. Usually an amazing deal doesn't appear and you keep straddling the middle, somewhat passively seeing how your luck plays out.
and am probably going to write about it again soon
12:48
there is definitely some "these choices all seem similar, i'll pick the one that's most likely to get me a contract extension" in a few of those general approaches.
12:49
Which I can't really fault. I'm lucky to be able to do a job like this full time, but if I was making millions, I'd like to keep making millions. Self preservation is a tasty trade tiebreaker
Pio
12:49
Does/should Tatis start 2019 in Triple-A?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
If not start there, then probably gets there pretty soon when it's clear he's back to normal
Bryan
12:49
I had a question about Suarez on the trade value list. With him having 7.5 years of team control, I was surprised he didn't rank higher. Is the idea that his talent level is just lower than those ranked above him? For example, Freddie Freeman will make about the same in his 3.5 years of team control, as Suarez will make in 7.5.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
Shorter track record, already at his peak, so most of those years are buying the decline. Still at a nice discount, though.
Or, projecting the decline given how hitters usually age. Maybe he'll get better each of the next 7 years?
Chris
12:51
What are your thoughts on the Padres pursuing Archer? Syndergaard?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
I get the impulse to get that frontline guy with years of control to infuse into your homegrown situation, but I think it's a little early. Just like it was too early for ATL to trade for Sale, Archer, Gray 12-18 months ago. 2 of those have declined to where one of the prospects you would've traded may be able to match them going forward for even less money, would have essentially wasted a year of Sale. I think it's too early but the concept of speeding up the rebuild/stabilizing the staff isn't wrong. And rebuilds aren't linear, as ATL has proven this year.
Troy
12:55
Yesterday you tweeted that it isn't very difficult to learn about spin rate, tunneling etc. Do you have any links to articles that could help explain these concepts? Thank you
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