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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/3/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Hello from North Carolina! Following around college Team USA and the Cubans for a few more days before I head to Cleveland for the Futures Game and our FG live event
12:30
some details on the saturday event, if you'd like to attend: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s...
12:31
the J2 edition of THE BOARD has confirmed, non VZ bonuses and the minor league version has all 35+ connected players (even if they haven't signed yet) added to team lists
12:32
including Jasson Dominguez at 61 overall and 1st on the NYY list
12:33
lastly, we have some fun stuff planned with the high speed video and Eric has seen Greinke, deGrom and Kershaw, so here's his article trying to figure out other guys that do stuff similarly to Kershaw using the video: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-find-some-clayton-kershaws-to-scale/
oh and if you're a first timer, lots of your questions could be answered by THE BOARD for J2, draft or minors and the draft and MILB stuff specifically is changing almost daily if you're into that: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...
to your questions:
Josh Nelson
12:35
Question about Yolbert Sanchez. If he meets his projections, do you think he'll be a better SS than Tim Anderson, or better 2B than Nick Madrigal?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
No. We were intrigued early when he defected and he hadn't been seen that recently and some people liked the bat and the athleticism/glove wasn't in dispute. Since BAL had the bonus hammer and passed, even in the $2M range, the reviews on the bat are a little more mixed and one scout said that BAL passing tells you all you need to know.

Often, there's a version of the winner's curse in the J2  market that the players everyone loves get locked up at 14 and when teams lose out on them, they start picking nits on the player. Then, players that emerge/sign late everyone is picking nits from the beginning and Yolbert is an example of that. Either way, we'll know what he is pretty quickly since he's 22
Steven
12:38
Is Jasson Dominguez at No. 61 the highest you've put a J2 prospect in rankings directly after signing?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
I wasn't doing the top 100 when Sano signed and Matian was fringe top 100-150, Vlad Jr. had the Maitan body at like age 14, so guys were skeptical and he wasn't in the top 100, Franco was 100-135 then moved up the next fall in extended then kept moving every month or so, so yeah that's at least tied for the highest
CamdenWarehouse
12:40
Is Scout allowed in the scout section at games?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
She came to one game to watch Parker Meadows in HS and stand down the side but I don't think sitting still around strangers for hours is exactly her jam
Buff
12:42
Given Marco Luciano’s amazing start, which got even better last night, can we bump him up even beyond the 50FV/#84 slot on the BOARD already?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
You can't really put a guy with a handful of pro games much higher than that, especially when there's some contact risk and a likely corner fit. I mean find an amateur player with 1ish year of track record and that profile that's above him. Gorman couldn't do that until he went nuts for a full year in the minors
12:43
Abrams, Rutschman, Witt, Kelenic are all up the middle, older, years of summer track record, etc.
Being on the top 100 isn't bad!
Chris
12:44
Was AJ Reed overhyped? Didn't develop correctly in the Astros system (they've struggled with first basemen) or was him being waived because of his own work ethic?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
Good example of no margin for error in projecting a bat/power only 1B that doesn't have the frame/athleticism to age well. There were always scouts saying his swing was stiff but he kept hitting and looked like he may be able to make it work. Guys like Andrew Vaughn and Torkelson are much more hyped as amateur prospects but still the same general profile
boredlawyer
12:45
Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
you're welcome
Jason N
12:45
What more does Xavier Edwards need to do to earn one of those sweet up arrows on THE BOARD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
well he would have one if we ranked him as an amateur where a lot of others had him. we already stuffed him pretty good so we'll need to see something new (not speed, contact, defense) like power or a full year of performing well to nudge him up further
Mike
12:46
What do you make of the Orioles' J2 signings? Was the motivation in signing ~30 guys to improve their relationships with other international talent because they didn't have an int'l presence prior to Elias? Did they get some quality guys despite none of them being on THE BOARD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
They also got started late enough that the top players weren't available and also the BAL DSL club had been stocked for years with lower-tier prospects and a couple 200k types, so the talent base was very low. other than yolbert/cubans, this was their only option
Sparks
12:48
Time to admit you guys are way low on Ethan Hankins? Dude looks like a young Kerry Wood
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Gonna need more than 15 pro innings on that one, broseph
Safety Stegosaurus
12:48
So Khris Davis is definitely going to finish at .247 again right?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
(crosses fingers)
Jason
12:49
How strong is Cappe to the Marlins, whether this year or next? Like if a team is willing to offer him the rumored $3-3.5mil or so right now, do you think he takes it? Any other teams possibly in the running that could swoop in? I'm a Rays' fan, and it really seems they fit. Should have pool space.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
By our quick math, TB spent about $3M yesterday, so they'd have right around $2.5-3M left and we've heard the MIA deal with Cappe is for $3.5M 12 months from now, so yeah seems like TB could do it unless they have other deals that will be done soon. Scouts seem more convinced that Cappe/MIA works than Vargas/CIN last year b/c there's not many teams that can top it/the number is pretty high. Also, evals vary pretty widely at those top levels, so I know there's a few clubs that wouldn't give Cappe $2M or maybe even $1M.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
12:52
Two-parter: who is the fastest player in the minors you've seen and haven't seen.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Buxton and Billy Hamilton
the fastest I haven't seen was almost Hamilton/Buxton bc boy they're fast /dad joke
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:54
You and Eric mentioned in a writeup that Wander Franco should be promoted aggressively so he can encounter adversity before the bigs. As of July 1, he had as many walks as swings and misses while raking in his latest promotion. Get this young man to Montgomery.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
I tend to agree
Joe Don
12:55
Should J2 signee Bayron Lora become one of Texas’ top 30 prospects?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Tom
12:57
What will the first date be when the Braves OF is Acuna, Pache and Waters?
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