JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/14/19

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Reds Fans

1:41

Based on your eye, are the changes in the Punisher's approach real and can explain the breakout? We want Aquino to be good very badly :D

Kiley McDaniel

1:41

Went from 35 FV to 45 FV in one week so we're at least part of the way in

STONKS

1:42

who picked out the name "THE BOARD!" ? I love it

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

I think I picked the all capsness but I think it was just an obvious name?

STONKS

1:42

PUT JOSH ROJAS ON THE BOARD! YOU COWARDS

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

He went on at the deadline

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

38th

Justin

1:42

Is Brailyn Marquez breaking out?

Kiley McDaniel

1:43

Also on the offseason 50 FV consideration list

Brad

1:43

Any thoughts on Riley Greene already being promoted to West Michigan? Too aggressive?

Kiley McDaniel

1:43

That's the kind of guy that gets the quick hook, lke Gorman or Kelenic. Pure hitter that's got a multi-year amateur track record

Gorland

1:43

basball

Kiley McDaniel

1:43

*baseball

Sean

1:44

I like the FV idea in concept, but I think it makes it difficult to properly assess prospects. For starters, it seems weird to me that a grading scale that is based on standard deviations (50 being average with the range from 20 to 80 representing -3 and +3 std dev respectively) that the grading of prospects doesn't reflect this same distribution (it should much closer to a normal distribution). Futhermore, I feel like the large amount of prospects that come in around 50 FV make it really difficult to differentiate between higher potential but riskier prospects and lower potential but higher floor prospects and everything in between. Do you think there is room for improvement on this grading scale?

Kiley McDaniel

1:44

Well it's a normal distribution in MLB

So all the minor leaguers are just trying to grade them to match the MLB player in general trade value/expected outcome

1:45

And the risk grade is a pretty easy way to do that

or just age/level vs. FV. a 50 in Low-A can move up a lot more than a 50 in Triple-A

But we also just finalized yesterday a new way to measure risk in the offseason prospect list

1:46

so it's more explicit rather than having to use various rubrics to impute things

(but I'm sure some of you will still complain)

Gavin Lux

1:46

In your opinion, will I be closer to a league avg regular or a perennial all star?

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

PAS

Gorland

1:46

Have you seen my son? I left him in this chat a few minutes ago and now I can't find him

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

okay everybody stop typing and look under your chairs and desk

1:47

dangle a nintendo DS or a tamogachi or whatever kids use these days. anyone have slime?

Steve O

1:47

Which defensive position would Wander Franco not be the #1 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

fetal

Gorland Jr

1:48

dad? DAD???

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

oh nevermind i found him

everyone back to work

Gorland

1:48

Please help me find Gorland Jr, losing him in a McDaniels chat is perfect ammunition for Karen in the custody hearings oh god oh frick

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

ugh KAREN amirite

Hi There

1:49

I was listening to a podcast where Eno Sarris said he'd be higher on Casey Mize if he knew his recent struggles had to do with him purposefully putting in work on his lesser pitches. Are you guys ever privy to that sort of insider information, and if so how does it impact your evaluations?

Kiley McDaniel

1:50

Yeah it's good to know. PIT is notorious for making pitchers throw 75% fastballs for every outing in their first full year. The usage percentages aren't public but we can get ahold of them, so we usually know if something weird is going on. It's noted in a few blurbs when it's odd, like TBR RHP Joe Ryan is like 75% fastballs

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:50

Do you consider yourself a scout or a writer?

Kiley McDaniel

1:50

I'm just trying to be the best Kiley I can be

1:51

(sustained, overly earnest look)

Jeffry!

1:51

Wait wait. "5-6 pitchers in the minors now where we'd say there's a real shot they're one of of those 10 MLB aces at some point." Care to name them?

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