You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/21/19
powered byJotCast
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Hello from ATL! Scout is in the backyard investigating squirrel-like movements in the trees
Eric and I still have about a half dozen pro prospects to move before things will slow down update-wise around Sept 1 in preparation for offseason lists
12:35
for the latest moves: https://twitter.com/fg_prospects
12:36
and the top 1254 prospects in the minors: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
cuvamc
12:36
What's your take on Riley Greene in CF? Saw him myself a few weeks ago, looked more athletic/competent than I originally thought he would be. I know he's most likely a RF, but how likely is it that he could play an average CF in the big leagues?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
The buzz on Greene was a little misleading since he was a 40-45 runner over the summer when he was seen the most and multiple times over multiple games against comparable competition
12:37
Then in the spring, he was a 50 runner but was playing against mostly non-pro prospects (other than his teammate Vaughn Grissom, now with ATL), getting limited chances in center field.
12:38
So we know he's quicker than the summer hype and he didn't look bad in center field, but I got parts of two games in the spring and most high level scouts didn't get any more than that, so there's some margin for error in the opinion
12:39
Greene has good baseball instincts and wasn't bad in my spring look, so I have no problem playing him in CF for the short-term, but would still guess he ends up in RF since he isn't a Christian Yelich type athlete, he's just better than most casual draft observers thought he was
Not Evan
12:39
Hey, Kiley. Do you think a prospect gains any value by being promoted to the major leagues, (as like, proof of confidence, perhaps), or do they lose some because their service clock starts? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
I'd say in the short-term, like in terms of weeks or a month, you can gain value because you don't use that much service time, and going nuts for a month in the big leagues does tell us something about the player that we can't know in Triple-A.
12:41
But if you mean just being better when he's promoted but hasn't played an MLB game yet...yeah, that means nothing
Since being a prospect in AA or AAA means the expectation is you'll be good in the big leagues, so just getting there doesn't move the needle
Not Evan
12:41
You guys bumped Sixto Sanchez down from a 60 to a 55 this year. Was that because he missed the first month with an injury, or have you become less optimistic about his performance? I'm wondering whether the last few months have alleviated those concerns. Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
The last few years, he's basically constantly been either injured or out of shape because he was recently injured. It's encouraging that he can hit 100 when this is the case, but this is not how most successful big league starters' upper minors careers go. Always a shot that this can change -- it's not like he's having arm surgery or anything -- but it isn't encouraging.
He was also at the bottom of the 60 FV group in the winter, so it wasn't a huge move
Keith
12:48
How difficult is it to evaluate J2 pitchers given their age? Is more of an emphasis placed on current stuff or projectability?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
There's a reason when you hear names a year or two out, it's only hitters. We've described the early development of hitters as gradual and for pitchers it's often random, with injuries and/or velo spikes, with the velo spikes usually helping the off-speed stuff too
12:49
and the velo spiked/value changes are tied to age/strength, etc. so it comes later, whereas hitters, absent abrupt big physical changes, often progress in a more linear fashion
12:50
so for J2 pitchers, it's usually 1 year or less before signing where decisions are made, so you can get them as late as possible but still have access to the top talents
and you look for projection, delivery, feel, etc. in most cases
because very few prospects have above average now MLB stuff
12:51
and Eric and I have said that paying for now-stuff without now-command in a teenage pitcher is one of the worst investments you can make, because you're always paying retail
and the odds of injury go up when a teenage pitcher is throwing at MLB reliever velocityies
12:52
same goes for now-raw power without comparable now-hitting in the J2 market. Always paying retail, less attrition via injury than pitchers, but tons of busts
Danny
12:53
Have you heard anything about or seen two Yankees GCL pitchers- Juan Carela and Denny Larrando?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
we wrote up Larrondo as an others of note in the winter list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-new-york-yankees/
88-92, high spin breaker, projection and athleticism, $550,000 bonus
12:55
Carela is another guy from the same class, but a bit behind Larrondo
James
12:55
Is Jeremiah Jackson a guy that could be moved up to 50 FV? His power output has been insane this year.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
Probably not there yet, since his 50 FV age peers are in Low-A and High-A and he's still in short season
12:57
That said, he isn't that far off and we were the high guys on him as an amateur (31st on our board, 57th overall pick) since not many knew he had a bad summer due in large part to an eye issue that was fixed for his insane spring HS performance, but it was against weak competition, so some teams didn't due their full deep dive to find that out.
James
12:58
Has Jordyn Adams disappointed this year or is this about what you expected given his two sport background?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
Posting a 112 wRC+ as a 19-year-old in Low-A with almost no high level baseball background is really good. That's 12% better than league average with the bat against a league full of guys that are all older than him, and the bat is the weakest part of his game.
He's definitely got a good shot to get the bump to 50 FV with those peers I referenced earlier
Chaise
1:00
Thinking of doing a comprehensive analysis of teams with recent success in late rounds of the draft and trying to figure out why they are good at drafting talent late/what these players did that could foreshadow success in the future.  Worth the research?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
I don't want to say it isn't, but late rounds is usually a function of area scouts or analytics staffs and the stories vary player by player. Analytics people/approach are often pretty static year to year, except when there's a new regime/big change and area scouts could change a lot. There's just a lot of variables to consider and a handful of useful players, and many of those were big overslot bonuses that you should obviously toss out.
Ryan
1:02
What is the highest grade you would give a RP?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
50 FV
Load More Messages
Connecting…