JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/22/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:10

Hello reader, puppy took a long detour on the walk and I'm a pushover so here I am at 12:10. Lets see what you've got for me today.

Tommy N.

12:11

Did you see Ryan Weathers start yesterday? Looks like he’s pretty polished already is he more polished than Gore coming out of high school?

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

Didn't see the start, but the level of polish is definitely comparable. Gore flashes 60's with a better delivery and Weathers is more 55's with no projection, short stride. Not like hugely different, but HS pitchers are risky and there's lots of teenagers with big stuff, so these sorta small differences become important

Garrett

12:12

Anthopoulos just said he believes the Braves internal talent is better than what’s out on the market? Do you believe it’s true or is this just leverage.

Kiley McDaniel

12:14

Well in the sense that they didn't need to go acquire a bunch of high octane arms bc they have Fried, Gohara, Wilson, Toussaint, Allard, Wright, etc. all hanging around is true. They still picked up a few veteran arms, but if fans think they should've cashed in two of those guys for Archer when there's a chance one of those guys just is Archer going forward (but younger and way cheaper) is probably correct.

Shawn

12:14

Between Loaisiga and Domingo German - Who has the better chance to start and who would be the better RP? Overall, who has more FV?

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

They're similar guys with big stuff and not quite enough finesse to start long term (or so we tend to think). We have JL a little higher but that may just be because I like Italian food

Ceej

12:16

Rushing a prospect can be bad for their development. Ignoring service time, how long could the Jays leave Vlad in AAA next year before it becomes a hindrance?

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

If you mean when will Vlad get bored and start developing bad habits because he isn't being challenged? I think Acuna, while a different sort of player, is a good measure of how much there is to gain in Triple-A when you're performing like this at this age. He should be up. Acuna needed to learn in the bigs against pitchers that could challenge him. Even if the focus is to force Vlad to focus more on D, when he's embarrassing 4A pitchers at age 19, do you really think that's a setting that will make him change something meaningfully?

It's unrealistic, but much of this is on the MLBPA for incentivizing teams to do this. If I'm running a team I want to do what's right by the kid, but this would be an enticing option in a non-contending season.

Skip

12:20

You had a brief mention of Lambert in your Glasnow piece. Is his ceiling a back end guy or is there a chance he can finesse his way to a #2 or #3?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

Any of these guys with one plus pitch and above average command projection could turn into a #3, but I usually don't make a habit of projecting it. More of a #4 for me.

Woodrow the Impaler

12:21

What could the Giants plan be for Marco Luciano in 2019? DSL?

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Don't know the plan, but for top guys like him, it's usually the AZL/GCL, with a possibility like Wander Franco to be promoted if he rakes.

Civil WAR

12:22

Is Nolan Gorman still a 50 FV? Any movement now or guesses on where he'll be in the offseason write ups?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Only Madrigal and Mize are 55's from that draft class, so Gorman can't really get up there until the positional stuff is more decided, which will take time to see which direction he's trending. A couple scouts said when Gorman was getting beat up by scouts this spring that he's Austin Riley and he's sure starting his pro career the same way.

Bearry

12:24

Glasnow showed a lot of spunk in his most recent start. Loving it so far.

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Boss in an 80s comedy: You've got a lot of spunk (stern face, long pause) GOOD THING BC I LOVE SPUNK

G Mac

12:24

You said last week that Andres Gimenez was a 55/60 glove. Is that at SS or 2B?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

SS. Not to be reductive, but there's a stereotype that Venezuelan shortstops often don't have super flashy defensive tools (speed, arm, size) but always make the most of them (like Vizquel, etc.) and Gimenez fits into that.

Hello

12:26

Austin Beck's doing fine, right? I shouldn't be worrying about the power outage?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

Yep, he was always gonna take awhile and his main issue was contact rate. Power can always come later. I'd look for walk rate to be the next thing to improve before he starts swinging for the fences.

Bearry

12:27

What do the Rays do with their upper level MIF depth? Adames, Wendle, Arroyo, Robertson, Duffy, Lowe, Solak, Wong, and Velazquez?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

Step 1: accumulate MI depth
Step 3: profit

12:28

I have no idea. Hypothetically, teams in this position, like STL/Ozuna, cash in depth for shorter term MLB pieces when the window is open. Not sure that fits in TB's plan but eventually I think it has to, bc they're getting close to having too many guys

Lilith

12:29

Any early thoughts on Mike Siani? I know there were some early concerns about the hit tool, but he seems to be doing fairly well.

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

We didn't worry about the hit tool, he's performed everywhere. He just didn't have a ton of projection in the frame, 50 raw power, and not a ton of loft. So, he'd need a successful swing change to hit his upside and there wasn't much else margin for error since it's more polish than explosion.

John

12:30

Starters generally need at least 3 pitches. Why aren't FBs and sinkers considered different pitches for these purposes?

Kiley McDaniel

12:31

Well it isn't 3 pitches in a vacuum, it's a fastball, then an offspeed pitch to neutralize RH and another for LH. FB and SNK don't differ enough to do that different of a job.

JustinPe

12:31

The cardinals have two youungsters-Ivan Herrera and joerlin de los santos- who are performing really well in the GCL and DSL respectively. Just wondering if they were legit prospects or I’m missing something from their stat line. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

Herrera is pretty solid, not a slam dunk catcher since the arm is just okay but has some hit/power. Probably a guy on the list soon enough.

George Matthew

12:33

Hi Kiley. Have you had any looks (or heard from someone who has) at the A's Jorge Mateo lately? I know he fell some in your updated rankings, but the 80 speed is tantalizing. Can he hit enough to be Billy Hamilton at SS? Better than that?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

There's been maturity concerns since A-ball for Mateo and scouts have usually said there isn't quite enough feel for SS, where 2B or CF makes more sense. I find these types of prospects underperform or take longer than usual and that seems to be generally accurate with Mateo. Big upside and in Triple-A, so that's why he's still ranked pretty high.

Aaron H

12:36

You guys seem to be the high ones on Cristian Pache, but even a ranking in the high-20s seems low based upon his tool grades. A league average bat w/ 80 D in center is basically Kiermaier, who would’ve been 5.5-6 WAR annually if he could ever have stayed on the field for a full season. Shouldn’t he be, like, top 5?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

Doesn't seem like teams pay for lofty defensive numbers, in part bc they peak early (more tied to athleticism than hitting is and athleticism peaks earlier than offense) and teams have more sophisticated defensive measures than the public. That said, Pache has made real offensive progress this year, so I'd imagine he'll move up in the offseason as some guys graduate ahead of him.

Vslyke

12:39

I know you project Barreto to CF, but are the A's going to use him to replace Lowrie at 2B in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

Well they can't put Mateo and Barreto there and they both have similar defensive tools, so I'll be curious to see how this plays out. I'd put Barreto at 2B and Mateo at CF, personally.

TKDC

12:39

You have a down arrow on Kyle Wright and also have his ETA as 2020, but he is pitching pretty good this year. What's not good about him and why don't you think he'll be in Atlanta in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

He moved down a bit in our update, relative to the guys ranked around him, but it was slight. Wright was inconsistent earlier in the year but has been better of late.

Bob Dobalina

12:42

With Mauricio joining the team, the Mets' most interesting bat prospects are all grouped together in Kingsport. How would you rank Kelenic, Vientos, Mauricio, Newton and Santana in terms of their likelihood of being a future MLB regular?

Kiley McDaniel

12:42

Kelenic, Mauricio (big dropoff)

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