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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/7/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:21
Hello from ATL! Scout is eating her lunch and I'm still experimenting with grilled/smoked meats and various formulations of frose
12:22
I was at the East Coast Pro showcase this past week, so I'm updating the draft rankings this week, along with some pro adjustments while Eric is at Area Codes and the PG All-American game this week
12:23
All of our rankings and stats and content and whatnot can be conveniently found here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects
to your questions:
Yay
12:24
Levi Kelly ranked top 10 for D Backs on other sites. Not on board for you guys. Isn’t he at least a 35+ at this point even if he’s just a reliever?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
Might be able to start, has improved this year, is in the group that will be added today, actually
tweet with the updates will go up after the chat
Bo
12:25
Level of concern for Austin Riley? He can't even get the start over Johan Camargo as a DH today against a LHP.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
well you guys told us we were too low on him when he went on a tear after coming up and now we're too high on him since he's struggling. his report outlines how his swing got too big and he's prone to streak/adjustments for this reason. i mean is any of this really shocking?
Mercado with a Mouth
12:26
Do minor league catchers get to call pitches? Is that taken into consideration for evaluation?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
yes and yes
Hank
12:26
Hi Kiley, thoughts on a potential BRUSDAR call up pretty quickly after an extended injury absence?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
some reliever concern is bubbling up from people we've spoken with, so seeing him in that role could be illuminating
DynastyStarter
12:27
I've seen conflicting reports on Larnach's power. I know he has a good approach, but are you guys expecting a 30 hr corner outfield bat?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
he was hitting balls 114 mph in college so I wouldn't be worried about the 9 HR this year, if that's what you mean. spoke with a scout that saw him during a hot streak and he said it's 6 bat with 6 raw and he can choose how to deploy it
Hank
12:29
If you were GM of the Blue Jays, would you rather have the return for Stroman they got, or a Balazovic/Duran package from the Twins?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
I think we would have SWR and Kay as the 1st and 4th best prospects among those four, so it's kinda a coin flip leaning toward NYM package since they have the best guy
CW
12:30
How come Demeritte's prospect status fell so quickly?  I get that he has warts, but even in 2017 & 2018 he managed above average offense and isnt a stump on D.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
he kind of is a stump on D and the motor runs hot and cold. going back to the discussion of Luis Robert in last week's chat, the dude that hits .220 in Triple-A with poor pitch selection doesn't translate to the big leagues well
12:31
Anyone can get a callup, hit at the bottom of the order and launch a couple fastballs for a few weeks, but I'm not optimistic he can string together more than that
pelkey
12:32
not trying to suggest that they are terribly similar players or anything, but could drew waters be on that moncada-like spectrum of players who don't get exposed until they reach the highest level of competition? or is it more like his approach is too geared toward contact (which is why he isn't getting to power)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
staying on the same topic...
12:36
There's some thought that Waters is talented enough that he won't adjust until he's challenged and thus falls into Brinson/Robert/Acuna vortex where you need a slew of 6 and 7 tools to continue as is and succeed in MLB. He may also be hunting pitches and has enough hitter IQ to adapt his approach at each level and just always put up plate discipline numbers close to these. Being an up-the-middle guy with a history of hitting for years and young for the level allows you to believe more than this can continue as-is. But yes, Waters is in this general area where the pitch selection will dictate his offensive output.
Question
12:36
Kiley, I heard on your pod cast a few weeks ago that you hate cats.  Why so much hate and what has the ENTIRE species ever done to you?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
Well I hate the trailer for the movie CATS and i strongly prefer dogs to the animal cats
Jake, not from State Farm
12:36
Hey Kiley. I'm curious if you're aware of any weaknesses you have when scouting specific player types. Like, I think every spindly 6-foot-8 wing will be Kawhi in the NBA. Do you have something similar when you're out scouting and how do you mitigate it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
I think every scout has a weakness for supreme athletes that either are hitters, have super easy athletic actions and could play any sport they want or are pitchers and their stuff darts all over the place. When there's a fatal flaw to those guys, it takes extra long to get off the bandwagon because you're trained to look for those guys and that's also what the stars in the bigs look like
cuvamc
12:38
When someone says a curveball has "teeth" what exactly does that mean? Still trying to grasp all the nuances of scouting jargon.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
I don't love that one because it isn't that expressive. It just means there's bite, which could mean it's a 50 or a 70 depending on the context...so that alone means very little to me.
12:39
but you can see why teeth/bite get put together
Grocery Store Clerk
12:39
Paper or Plastic?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Now that I have a grill and use the chimney starter, having paper bags around is great since newspaper isn't ahem as widespread as it used to be
Broby
12:40
Which one of Gavin Lux's tools has developed the most since he was drafted?  I remember "slick fielder but can't hit" type reports a few years ago
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
In HS he was a good fielder that would play somewhere in the IF, feel for the game, some projection, cold weather guy, solid feel to hit and some power projection. A 5 tools across the board but like the instincts/makeup sort of thing. Looks like it could be 6 hit/power and 2B, so obviously the Dodgers PD group has worked some magic yet again after the scouting group found some good clay
Kiley Quips <3
12:42
Missed you man. Serious question today. If Brailyn Marquez keeps up this torrid run, does he vault into the 50 FV come 2020?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
very possible
Slothrop
12:43
Why arent there any black american catchers
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
This comes up a lot with scouts, since Charles Johnson is the last good example I'm aware of. So when you're scouting a black prep catcher, it's like scouting a prep player from Mississippi where you know if you're in on the player, you're kinda bucking recent trends and it'll be part of the discussion in the draft room.

I think the genesis is similar to the black QB thing where the racist stereotype means they get pushed to more athletically-geared positions over more cerebral ones. I would assume that's much less prevalent now, but black participation in baseball isn't surging, so the number of black catchers isn't exploding either.

This also applies to Dominican (and to a lesser degree Cuban) catchers. I know until Gary Sanchez came up the only examples were basically backups, as most Latin catchers are Venezuelan. There's some truth to the scouting stereotype that the lesser-tools-higher-IQ Latin shortstop tends to be Venezuelan, but there's obviously tons of exceptions to things like this.
Until recently they tended to play more games in Venezuela, thus their players tended to have more in-game IQ, the hitters tended to be more patient and have in-game hitting feel, etc. but these things aren't as clearly delineated as game playing is much more widespread across Latin America.
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