JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/7/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:49

You can see how development/coaching patterns, once they compound over a few decades, can define the talent in an area in a way that isn't really indicative of that area, but more of the development/coaching.

Winston

12:49

Am I far off thinking there is a chance Isaac Paredes can become Gleyber Torres?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

We think so. Paredes is a good notch or two below, missing some of the explosion and quickness but I can see why you group them together as similar sorts of tool profile

cuvamc

12:51

Do you personally have any concerns with Espino's delivery long-term? I think he gets himself into elite positions to throw based on his athleticism, which maybe gives him more leeway when it comes to the lengthier arm swing.

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

Concern for me isn't on the delivery, but just in a) throwing that hard at that age has a bad track record and b) when your value is tied to fastball/breaking ball which is heavily influenced by arm speed, what happens when the arm speed backs up, as it does starting around the mid-20's for basically every pitcher.

In a world where you can draft whatever type of prospect you want in the draft or via trade, you pay retail for now stuff from teengers and that's not the type of prospect I want to pay retail for

12:53

in the July 2 market, you pay retail for present raw power, which is why many of the teams that do best in that market don't go pay 7 figures for a kid whose projection is heavily tied into raw power

Mountie Votto

12:53

Is the Aristides Aquino breakout anything more than small sample noise/good matchups?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

So, Aristides Aquino: .636 SLG, 28 AAA HR. Now 7 hits (2 HR) in his first 17 MLB PA.

Hit balls 111 MPH (single) and 108.9 (HR) last night.

Apparently fueled by stance/swing change (@ctrent: theathletic.com/1115258/2019/0…) and man, does he make it easy to eyeball:

The swing is pretty notably different and he's had MLB-level power hitter tools for years but leveled off performance a bit. Could be real.

#2 pencil

12:54

Does a #1 or #3 pencil exist?

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

pretty sure they do, they just aren't as practical. there's a wes anderson-ish stationary store in the fancy mall here in ATL and I'm pretty sure i held both of those types

Dan

12:55

Kiley, is there a decent chance that Brennen Davis and/or Brailyn Marquez nudge their way into the top 100 once the season is over?

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

yep, Davis is also on that list to monitor the rest of the summer

Zack

12:56

Any reports on Luis Matos or Luisangel Acuna in the DSL? Likely to be 40 FV prospects on offseason lists?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Both are on the list to add to THE BOARD when we get an extra opinion or two. Probably both 40, Matos maybe 40+

jamie

12:57

every now and then i just sit back and think... mike trout... damn

Dominik

12:58

Was there ever an mlb player with 5 80 tools? Mays maybe? Also what is the minimum requirement for calling a prospect a "5 tool player"? Is 5 50s enough or does it have to be 5 above average or plus tools?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Some scouts say Bo Jackson was the closest. I think the term gets used too much and it's just 50 or 55 across the board. It should be 55 or 60 minimum on all 5 tools.

1:00

We only have 5 players that project for a 60+ future raw/speed/arm: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

The Tone

1:00

Do you think the Braves will regret not turning some prospect capital into a quality starting pitcher for the playoffs (and possibly beyond) like Stroman or Bumgarner? The window is already open for them, I don’t know what they’re waiting for.

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

Well this is more of a 5-year window than a 1 or 2 year one, so I think they're treating it as such

Daniel

1:01

Why was Rojas not on the board, then put on the board and called a solid utility piece as soon as he was traded? He has been great all year.

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

Well we can't have up-to-the-second thoughts on every minor league and amateur player at all times, so sometimes a guy gets traded and we haven't really considered if we should move him for the last month or so and he's either improved or performed at a higher than expected level for long enough that he's worth a move. We've been pretty clear what we though Rojas was for years, he's just doing in Triple-A now, so an MLB bench future seems more likely than a year ago or even the start of the year.

Jerry

1:02

So like, where is Jasson Dominguez now and what do the Yankees have him doing?

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

Don't know for sure but would assume he's at their academy in the DR playing in Tricky League games. His IG seems to support that assumption

Asian Model

1:03

What does LuBob have to do to get the up arrow and 60 FV? 1 HR a day?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

believe it or not a couple of weeks of stats don't move the grades around here. a deep dive on that in last week's chat https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-24-19/

Dominik

1:05

I know it is extremely early but are the high ish k rates of riley greene a concern for his hit tool especially compared to a guy like abrams? Or does that mean nothing?

Kiley McDaniel

1:06

For a power hitter that's a couple years younger than every he's playing, playing in the longest season of his career, Greene's K rates are actually pretty low

Abrams is a totally different sort of player, but he's also exceeding expectations so far

Mike Taucman

1:07

How am I this good? How did no one see this coming?

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Another Fringe Five guy exceeding expectations

Tony Stark

1:08

You going up to the Saberseminar this weekend?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

Nope, I've been traveling enough lately

TheJoser

1:08

One of the Baseball Prospectus guys just characterized major-league GM's as risk-averse group-thinkings (effectively). Do you agree, and is that ok?
Related question: which GM would you bring back from retirement to spice things up and Zig when others are Zagging? I'd love to see Omar Minaya try to operate in this environment?

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

Yeah, I/FG have written about this a good bit as well. This happens when the priority is getting another contract, so (broadly speaking) you can run the team heavily on a model, blame the model/luck if things go poorly and then everyone's models are pretty similar so nobody wants to trade b/c they value everyone the same

1:10

The way to zag would be to have a model and be able to run with these current GMs on the progressive end of things but choose to pick some spots and go short/long on some sorts of players you think they tend to be wrong about. There are clear tendencies with most teams. Just being anti-analytics and ignoring that stuff is gonna make you more wrong than right.

TheJoser

1:11

True or false: baseball is more fun with breakouts aren't immediately met with "zomgsteroids"

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

or blocking people on twitter that respond to a teenager hitting 97 with either a) TJ 4 sure! or b) well, actually velo isn't everything and you're just feeding into kids getting hurt by tweeting this c) that one terrible person that celebrates when guys get hurt

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