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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/14/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
Hello, I'm coming to you people on Friday since I was on the road Wednesday. Let's get to your questions
I hate avocados
12:16
When will we see rankings updates next?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
I'm guessing Monday? We have one more update of about 15 players to shuffle around before we head into the offseason. We'll probably lock all those in this weekend as far as where they go exactly, but the list is done
Arms
12:19
Long term who makes the better MLB Pitcher? Shane Bieber or Chris Paddack? Or will both be exceptional?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
Similar kinds of guys, but Bieber is already there and performing and hasn't had a TJ, so I'll take him, though Paddack has a little more ceiling
Matt
12:19
are you buying the Luis patino hype? I believe he should be considered a top 100 prospect, plus velo, athletic, throws strikes, 3-4 usable pitches
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:19
That is one of the players that will be moved up next week to a 50 FV
Jason
12:22
The Braves have an outfield plethora and middle infield shortage due to the scandal.  If you were AA, would you trade Incartie and wait a year for Pachè. Do you prefer pache or waters?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Hold on lemme try out a hot take here
12:23
Trade Dansby and Inciarte, sign Harper and Machado BOOM FIXED
12:25
Lots of different questions about what the Braves should do this offseason. I would generally leave the offense alone and let Riley/Waters/Pache work their way up rather than go nuts in FA. Teheran looks expendable, spending in the bullpen looks like a good spot, then wait until the deadline next year to see how the kids progress and either wait a little more or really push the chips in and make a run at some big fish.
Jim Leyland Palmer
12:26
Looks like the first 10 or so picks for the '19 draft will be full of college hitters. Do you see any potential stars there or more likely above-average regulars?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:26
More above average regular types, but I'm sure a few will emerge. Rutschman is the possible star of the group right now
That Lying SonofaB!tch Johnson
12:26
Nolan Jones - terrific approach it seems. Widely variant assessment of hit tool with 40 per FG up to 55 per MLB.com.  Any ideas why such disagreement?  K rate in this level versus age seem to suggest fringy or average, but does he have a better change to maximize the hit tool based on the approach?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
He is also going to be moving up next week, so you'll have to wait until then for details
Anthony
12:27
I'm curious what front office people look for in hiring and evaluating managers. Were you ever involved in something like that or do you have any info on how teams decide "this guy- who may or not have a managing track record- would be good"
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Combining a bunch of things like experience level, track record of managing personalities, track record of tactical expertise, then lots of conversations where you try to tease out if he's better/worse than the track record when he explains himself...or if he's a snake oil salesman. Lots of calling around to get thoughts around the industry, former coworkers, etc.
Jerkstore
12:28
Do you see swing change potential in prospects? Was that always built in to prospect ratings via raw vs game? Can you see when a prospect is trying to institute a change like adding a leg kick? I don't know what people thought of guys like bautista and donaldson pre swing change but i'm wondering if scouts can see that potential without necessarily knowing exactly what the player needs to change.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
We try not to go nuts projecting that stuff, more reacting quickly when there is a change and it looks sustainable. Generally, being a good athlete and having bat control are the universal qualities that make hitters able to adjust. Albies, Altuve would be the littlest examples of that
Mike
12:30
kevin smith is rated a 40+, do you see him progressing to AA next season and being a roster guy for the Jays down the road?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
Yep, he's a type that I think could be a 50 FV when he's in Triple-A if he keeps performing. He's not that yet since the upside isn't enormous, he's a year or two away and this is his first year at this new level of performance
Blue Moon Fever
12:31
How concerned should I be about Matias' K rate? What kind of chance does this kind of prospect have in cutting the K rate to a level that will play at higher levels?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
He's the type that always gonna be high in K, higher in BB and high in HR...true three outcome and the tools/skills to continue doing this
12:34
Limits the upside some since the AVG/OBP and speed/defense will be low, but it's sustainable at some level
Mike
12:34
Pardinho is still not 18, at what level would his FV get bumped ?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Issue there is he's sub 6 foot and filled-out, so he doesn't have the projectability in performance that most teenagers have due to the physicality being mature
Ghost of Ned Yost
12:34
DL Hall have 1-2 upside?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
On certain days, yes. On other days he looks like a bullpen guy. But, again, not a super long list of guys that flash that ability at all
Al
12:35
How do we figure out if this is purely a hot streak or if Amed Rosario has finally figured it out/adjusted. (it's insane how many people were willing to write off a 22 year SS who was a top 3 prospect in baseball a year ago)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:36
This is probably what he is--toolsy, electric, a little impatient, probably plays a bit below the ultimate upside but a solid regular with a chance to be well above
Warbiscuit
12:36
Any SEC guys you are liking for next year's draft class?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Here's a good list of all the top guys to monitor. That list (same link) will be updated over time and include a lot more names as the draft gets closer
Bryan A.
12:37
Can 2019 LHP Hunter Barco be a top 10 pick even though he isn’t on your big board?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
May be tough given the lower arm slot, but prep pitchers can really move up/down a lot when stuff goes up/down a tick or two across the board. Certainly possible, not likely. Wouldn't have guessed Ryan Weathers would've gone top 10 even in April, so silly to rule stuff like that out this early.
Rob
12:38
Why would you ever stir the pot with Braves fans like that? You know at least 85% of the fan base fully expects them to swap Inciarte and Swanson with Harper and Machado now
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
joker burning mountain of cash dot gif
Hank
12:39
Do you believe what Camargo is doing can be sustained somewhat heading into 2019?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
I think he's a 50 or 55 FV going forward. Some good offenses put multi-positional 50 FV types in hybrid roles--Marwin Gonzalez, Ian Happ, etc.--so this doesn't create some unsolvable problem like it seems some fans think re: Riley v. Camargo
RVA Empire
12:41
Is there a pitching equivalent to wxOBA? I assume yes, at least internally for ballclubs, but I have not heard of a publicly-accessible version.
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