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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 9/19/18
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Oyster Burns
12:38
in terms of pure upside, you like brujan or madrigal better?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Also discussed some in THE BOARD changes and episode 2 of the podcast. Madrigal is a little twitchier and has a little more track record to go off of, but we have them reasonably close and the upside is reasonably close. I'll lean Madrigal for now.
John S
12:39
It seems like we know what teams should be doing with the wunderkind position players (promote them service time be damned), but not so much with the pitchers.  legit reasons we don't see calls to advance the Luis Patinos of the world up the ladder?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Gotta manage innings, so you have fewer games in the season to justify moving them up late
Oyster Burns
12:40
Is Erik Swanson an mlb starter?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
He may start a big league game, but no
Guest
12:40
Has the Yankees system been gutted like how Boston and Chicagos was? How were the Dodgers able to avoid this sudden falling off in prospect quality?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Top end of the NYY system is thinner, but they're pretty good at accumulating depth type prospects via player development/scouting. LA didn't make huge trades like BOS and CHC did, they moved smaller pieces.
Oyster Burns
12:41
are shorter players more likely to find command because of their shorter levers, or less likely as they would tend to get tired more quickly?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
In super broad terms, yes, but in reality you only really hear about the super elite smaller guys, so the outlier little dude will do outlier things with his littleness
bosoxforlife
12:42
Glasnow for Archer even up, who says no?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
Well, I mean Huntington would get fired if he did that, so I'd guess he would say no.
Sammy
12:43
Buying Amed Rosario breakout?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
Yep, maybe not the 60 or 65 FV people were hoping for, but a solid above average everyday guy
maineball
12:45
Any thoughts on the LIDOM draft? I'm surprised how late players like Deivi Garcia and Pedro Gonzalez went. Link to draft here: http://www.lidom.com/home/draft-pick-2018/
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Agree, there's some pitchers in decent spots on our rankings that went 9th to 15th round here
maineball
12:46
Outside of Baltimore and Miami, who could you see signing Victor Victor?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
He'd be leaving millions on the table if he didn't sign with them and I know they're both interested, so they would be heavy favorites unless another club trades for a ton of space
Charlie
12:48
Can the braves sign any age cuban players? Or are they allowed to only sign players up to the 125k limit?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Either no one 23 and under or no one over $10K. As far as I know, Cubans over 23 are free game for any team
Logan
12:48
There have been multiple articles in the past indicating hitters tend to be worth more in terms of surplus value than pitchers when in the same or similar FV or ranking tier (at least for 50FV and above). For example, a 55 FV bat has been cited as having more surplus value than a 60 FV arm (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/). That doesn’t seem to be reflected in your current rankings. Is that because you have issues with the research, or because you believe your valuation of pitching prospects will be more selective and flatten the values out going forward?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
Well the issue is that we're aware of this and ranking guys different as a result, so those numbers aren't exactly correct since they reflect rankings that weren't aware of this. It's a moving target.
Harry
12:49
Can Abrams and Witt Jr stay at shortstop long-term?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Abrams could be 2B or CF, Witt is a little better bet to be SS, neither are no-doubt slam dunk or project to be above average gloves there at this point
PTBNL
12:50
Re: your tweet about Snell's increasing velocity:

Given that we've seen guys like Snell, Morton, Treinen, etc. experience significant increases in velocity (likely due to improved training and mechanics), would it make more sense for scouting departments to emphasize command/make-up/secondary pitches with the hope that they can improve on the velocity during player development?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
What if command backs up and all the new velo guys go from starters to relievers? Can't really one-size-fits-all this stuff, have to treat every guy differently. Scouts (and now biomechanical types) will see inefficient mechanics and see value, try to acquire the player and see what they can make of him. I don't think you can generalize much beyond that.
Logan
12:51
When are draft rankings planned for update? Any particular big risers/fallers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Probably Monday? Nothing Earth-shattering near the top, just folding in more summer college pop up guys, some late summer HS risers, expanding the list overall
Logan
12:52
Could Pache use the AFL as a springboard into the top 10ish prospects in baseball? He’ll finally get a chance to show off the new swing in a hitter-friendly environment.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Possibly? Some people toss out AFL hitter stats given the hitter friendly conditions and uneven pitching, so probably not
Tony Plush
12:53
Hey so is Adalberto Mondesi good after all?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Maybe? Always had tools, so wouldn't be a shock
Kev
12:53
Did Daniel Lynch's pro debut increase his stock any, or was that about what was expected of a 1st round college arm in A-ball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Maybe a little, but he was seen as a 55s across the board polished pitcher that should move pretty quickly
Logan
12:54
Surprised to not see Touki get much of a bump. Still don’t think there’s enough command to reliably turn a lineup over three times? His stuff is as good as anyone in baseball and the performance is finally starting to match.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
He's 56th on the list. You could argue him into the 30's if you really love him, but that's a pretty small margin
Logan
12:55
Royce Lewis is now listed at SS instead of CF on the board. Think he sticks in the dirt?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
Looks more likely now than ever! Talked about this some of the last podcast too.
Logan
12:55
Gore is ranked pretty high for a really low level pitcher without super premium stuff or command projection, no? What is propping him up other than reputation?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
It's premium stuff and premium command and projection
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