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Kiley McDaniel Holiday Chat - 12/26/18
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bencole2727
12:54
Does Adonis Medina have legit #1 or #2 SP potential? Chances that he gets there?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Chance to be a #2, still needs to be more consistent. Maybe 15-20% chance?
Doug
12:55
Do any of Kelenic's tools project towards plus-plus (65+)? I saw a whole bunch of 55s slapped on him predraft, but am reading a bunch of pundits calling him a high probability star since the Cano trade happened. Did his pro debut show more than what amateur scouts were seeing?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
His tool grades are there. The raw tools are basically 55 to 60 across the board, but game power is probably more 50 and defense probably settles closer to 50, but he would be a 55 defender on a corner.
12:57
I would also caution if you're reading national-type writers that are forced to have a trade hot take and don't do prospect stuff. When they write about a handful of the top 100 types every winter, they're all a star compared to the low level throwins in most deals...so the word star means a little less when guys like that are using it
Also, mostly 55-60 tools in center field is a 3-4 win player generally and that's probably a star?
I wouldn't say there's many guys in the minors that are high (over 50%) probability to be a star
Jeff
12:58
Thoughts on these 2019 HS draft arms: Reggie Crawford, Paul Labriola, Spencer Jones. Is Jones a better bat than arm prospect?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
Jones is on the above-linked draft board. Something like mid 1st round pitcher, 2nd as a hitter, so it's still close
Labriola and Crawford are wait-and-see projection type arms
Unlce Rico
12:59
Bryce to Boston?  Trade JBJ, not like Mookie is going to sign next year anyway.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
Mookie is exactly the kind of player that I could see signing the huge Votto/franchise player level extension where they forego free agency but get paid close to a market rate for a super long term.
vince clortho
1:01
Why aren't more long term free agent contracts front loaded? They provide more economic value to the player due to the greater net present value, and from the team's perspective, better align performance with compensation and so making the back end less of a sunk cost.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
Tends to go the other way, with a bit of a moral hazard, to save payroll now and maximize short term wins rather than maybe give your replacement a nice contract to work with
Also why teams are hesitant to really add multiple DSL teams and other long-range investments
Colin
1:01
Hi Kiley. Is Xavier Edwars’ ceiling as high as Nick Madrigal’s? They have a number of similarities as prospects, apart from Madrigal’s college experience and X’s ability to hit from both sides of the plate.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
Madrigal has 70 bat control and don't think Edwards does, he's more 55. Beyond that, the raw tools are pretty similar, so Madrigal's college performance would be most of the gap.
Dave
1:02
Given the way Harper’s market is developing, if the Nats circle back and again offer $300M/10 with opt-outs this time, A) Does he take it, and B) Should he take it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
A) No B) Probably not
1:03
Judging from past Boras-helmed situations where the bottom fell out of the market (which is not what I think is happening here yet) he would focus on one thing that helps him save face (highest 1-year guarantee, 3 opt outs in a 4 year deal, etc) and get that to show he got a precedent-setting deal
Vinny R.
1:04
My son plays travel ball in the same organization as right-handed pitcher, Quinn Priester. A lot of talk that he has a chance to be drafted in the 1st round. Its early obviously, but do high upside players like him from cold climates have a chance to go in the First Round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
Chance? Yes. Probably more 2nd round right now, but has shown above average stuff, command to start, projection, cold weather arm, etc. where there's plenty of examples that have made this jump before
Purple Mays Haze
1:05
Do all MLB teams have access to the minor league trackman data? Who owns it? MLB? When will we see a milb baseball savant?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
The teams own the data and the TrackMan unit, they agree to pool it so all 30 teams can get the data, TrackMan facilitates. It's well into the six figures per year per team and they aren't sharing it with anyone. We just get it in drips and drabs.
1:07
The interesting element is if a college/HS/JC game happens at your minor league stadium, the team that owns the unit at that stadium owns the TrackMan data exclusively and can trade it with other teams for their exclusive data. So if you ever wonder why this college tournament or HS showcase is at the Single-A affiliate of your favorite team, there's a good chance they're paying/encouraging their affiliate to get that tournament so they can get exclusive data and trade it to the other 29 teams for the events they also have.
1:08
At an MLB stadium, all 30 teams get it (except for private workouts) since it's under the Statcast domain and MLB owns the units in the MLB stadiums so they can own the Statcast data (TrackMan is the pitcher/hitter element of Statcast)
jordanalex91
1:09
Antonio Cabello or Wander Franco? Similar age and league adjusted stats as per Clay Davenport's peak EQA (277 for Cabello, 283 for Franco)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
Well, on THE BOARD, Wander Franco is the #6 prospect in all of baseball and Antonio Cabello is 17th in the Yankees system: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-...
Jeff
1:10
Spotlight or Zodiac? Trying to pick a favorite movie
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:10
Haven't seen Zodiac but it's on the shortlist of ones I need to get to. As for Spotlight all I have to say is
THEY KNEW!!!!
Logan
1:10
Any updates on the Carter Stewart grievance?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:11
Keeps going on longer and I keep hearing it should be done soon...?
TooDamnTall
1:11
Hi Kiley, love what you do here.  With the inherent level of uncertainty in scouting, I was curious in general about how you judge your own work in hindsight.  How often do you think you missed something that you should have seen?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:12
It's normally either 1) player changed completely like a huge velo spike from a non-projectable guy, total swing change from slap hitter, etc. or 2) Interpreted information incorrectly, like dinged a guy for bad makeup and it was more he's flamboyant on field or bad decisions than a bad work ethic guy
1:13
Between Eric/my eyes and other scouts, we don't really misdiagnose tools, it's just projecting into the future and guessing on coachability/makeup
Logan
1:13
So, I’m interested in hearing more about an answer you gave re: Pache. You said you want to like guys up once the lists are done and then decide if he’s a 60 or 55, basically making a judgement call on where to draw the line based on the distribution. I get that FV grades are theoretically based on population statistics (standard deviations from the mean), but shouldn’t that population be the MLB player pool and not the prospect pool? Also, doesn’t it make more sense to just evaluate the player based on his own merits instead of forcing the prospect pool to always look like a normal distribution?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:13
Has nothing to do with distribution
It's somewhat arbitrary that this guy is a 60 but this next guy is a 55, but we have to draw the line somewhere
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