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Kiley McDaniel Trade Value Chat - 7/19/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Hello from ATL! Scout is sitting in her bed next to me, resting after we Trade Valued so hard it affected our sleep patterns.
12:35
Check out the series via the widget at the top of any page to see the whole deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/
12:37
some other pieces that have come out in the last week to check out if you haven't already:
12:38
Craig on some meta stuff with the Trade value list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/
12:39
Monday's big list of prospects movers on THE BOARD: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/
to your questions:
Hank
12:40
Can you elaborate on the Albies silver bullet comment about spot in the batting order?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
I follow/hear enough from Braves that there seems to always be a "oh Albies is making more contact with a swing tweak/new spot in the order/new approach, etc." like he both needs to and can be "fixed" just because he swings too much. Maybe that'll happen one day but I also just think that's kinda who he is
Guest
12:41
Any further comment on Betts? Falling from 6th to off the list in a year seems... noteworthy
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
He was 55-60, so not far off the list but this was covered on the pod with Meg, which should be coming out in the next hour or two.
12:43
If you look at the spreadsheet I make for this list, there's tons of guys with like 15 WAR in controlled years for $50 million guaranteed, or something like that. The lowest pure WAR figures are like 11-13 and it's usually elite hitters with 2.5 years of control (Baez, Freeman, Bryant would be guys like that this year) which is like a 5 WAR, elite hitter that's likely making some real money.
12:44
When a hitter has 1.5 years of control and its super elite like a 6-7 WAR player, you're buying like 10 WAR at most and Betts isn't that guy this year. At least if it's a Sale-like 6-7 WAR pitcher you get two playoff runs and can justify him close to the 2.5 pitchers.
This is also generally how the industry sees it and also I don't think the Red Sox could get any of the top 50 for Betts unless it's a guy on the end of the list and a team is really desperate and even that seems like a stretch.
12:46
So, even fringe MVP-level hitters with 1.5 years of control basically can't make the list. Those guys aren't traded for top-5 overall prospects in baseball. This also doesn't mean that Mookie isn't one of the top 5 or so players in the game. It also means that the 2.5 years of control hitters on this years list have basically no shot of making it next year unless they post a 10 WAR season.
Ian
12:46
You ranked players according to their values to median market teams.  Players are almost always traded to the team that values them most.  If you ranked players according to the highest valuation, how would that change the exercise?  How different would the top of the list look?  I assume the biggest changes would be high salaried players with elite performance, like Scherzer and Trout.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Well it would be impossible because the Rays list and the Yankees list would be completely different so Trout is maybe even higher for NYY but isn't even on the list for TBR...so I should both move Trout up and down? Or just rank him based on what the team that wants him most thinks? So everyone gets rounded up? Every guy is shaded down from what the team that wants him most thinks. Maybe that's just the same list?
Keith
12:48
How big of a jump is it from the AZL/GCL to the Pioneer/Penn league? Should stats from the Pioneer/Penn league be taken seriously?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
It's going from facing mostly raw/toolsy teenagers and small college players in the AZL/GCL to facing polished college players in the NYP/PIO. It's different but not like a giant jump.
Mike L
12:49
How is Luis Robert 22 on the board?  He seems to be a consensus top 3-5 hitting prospect (I think he's #1 ahead of Wander)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
I haven't talked to one person that's a professional in baseball that has him over Franco. You could argue for him being higher given the huge upside but we also kinda led that charge ranking him in the 20's/30's overall before he even played a pro game, after a long layoff when he defected. There's been injuries, approach issues and a lack of bulk performance along with high BABIPs, a lack of TrackMan data and he's also 22. There just isn't enough certainty with what we know now to put him up with that top tier of guys. He certainly could get there, though, so you aren't totally off base.
12:53
And when we're talking about the top of the prospect rankings, these things are run by dozens of people in the industry. This isn't to say everything is correct but this does reflect a consensus and when there's the potential to shoot up, like Nate Pearson or Robert or Kopech, we note it as a high variance type, which Robert is.
Acuna Matata
12:54
How does Degrom clock in at 24, but Sale doesn't make it at all. The contracts are nearly identical by AAV, opt-out timing, deferrals etc., and Sale is younger with a longer track record of success and a better 2020-21 projection. Sale has even been better by xFIP and SIERRA in 2019, the two best future ERA estimators
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
I don't see any deferrals in the deal, Sale's velo is down 1.7 mph this year and also, because I know this question means you ignored/didn't read the intro...the list isn't my opinion. Every single person I talked to said Sale's deal was a negative surplus value because of the length/opt out and signs of decline and everyone not in a tiny market said deGrom's was a positive surplus value...which is a cheaper deal due to the deferrals, so the guarantee is almost $50 million cheaper if I remember the figures correctly.
Gila Monster
12:58
Thor for Gore, who says no?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
SD. Got some negative feedback on Thor being the type that is more popular with fans than execs
Benji
1:00
How far off was Matt Boyd for an honorable mention? By your metrics,  would his value match up with Kyle Tucker?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
He's literally on the honorable mentions. Did anyone read that article? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-intro-and-honorable-menti...
1:01
CTRL+F, my guys
and ladies
1:02
Tucker is a little steep. Not that the surplus values don't line up but I don't think Boyd is the level of guy that gets one of those elite prospects. I would shoot for more back end of a top 100 type and a couple more 45s/high 40s as a reasonable return.
Gumby
1:02
Are there any updates from scouts concerning if Oneil Cruz could make it work at shortstop?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
I mean he's 6'7 so no one thinks he's actually gonna stay there and no one has thought that for years since that's never happened in the history of baseball
1:04
but also, his defensive metrics from Clay Davenport are actually solidly positive, so why not leave him there and just see? http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2018/2018pagePITrealALL.shtml
Fangraphs Reader
1:04
What is driving the disparity in value between Alvarez and Alonso?  Alonso obviously has a larger sample size in the majors, but Alvarez is 2+ years younger and has 1 more year of control.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:05
Alvarez's lack of bulk production and seeing how pitchers adjust. I think he's on the list if we do it like a month later.
Brendon
1:05
It's been really fun to watch the development of the Jays young catching tandem, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno! You guys seem to be ahead of the rest of the industry in reflecting this with your new rankings, kudos!
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