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Klawchat 08/28/19
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Moe Mentum
1:31
Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law
1:31
Heard of it but haven't read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel's Autism.
John
1:31
When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law
1:32
That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.
Moe Mentum
1:32
At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law
1:33
Yes to all three (and I'd vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.
Alex
1:33
Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law
1:33
I would not. That's a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.
Amir
1:33
You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law
1:35
Hate it, but I accept it's inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it's not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
This is essentially my take on prostitution ... I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it's going to exist whether it's legal or not.
Beeds
1:35
Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods ... where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law
1:36
Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I'd say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that's at least comparable.
JT
1:36
I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I've only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren't as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law
1:37
There's some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think - this is a better question for researchers, I'm just cribbing what they've found - that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don't throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.
JT
1:38
You've never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there's a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he's got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you're unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law
1:38
Not at all. He's not worth the roster spot.
Jason
1:38
My apologies for not being clear enough.  The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow).  With Hamilton on third, it doesn't take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law
1:40
Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I'd need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it's high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.
Moe Mentum
1:40
Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law
1:40
The tools aren't really there - he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.
Nick
1:41
Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M's rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law
1:41
He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.
Steve
1:42
You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation.  You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously.   Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law
1:43
I'm divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don't mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.
Pat D
1:43
It's pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right?  I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law
1:43
It's sad when you can read that question in the President's voice and find it totally plausible.
David
1:44
What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law
1:44
I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven't booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.
Matt
1:44
Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that's gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law
1:44
It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?
Jason
1:45
Keith...is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law
1:45
Yes, and probably yes.
Ridley
1:45
So...trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says "There is no one more X than me," or "I'm the least Y person in the world," that's a helluva tell. I'd love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law
1:47
The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices - we often hear of countries 'dumping' goods, although that's often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs - would restore long-term balance. I'm pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you'd be right in just about each individual case.
Nick
1:47
Who's your NL ROY?
Keith Law
1:47
With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?
Pat D
1:47
Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year?  Would you watch "Joker" if it garners any nominations, even though it's ostensibly a "comic book" movie?
Keith Law
1:48
Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon..., haven't come out yet. I'll watch Joker if it's supposed to be good, and not just "good for a comic book movie."
Mat Ji
1:48
What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
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