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Klawchat 1/25/18
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WDE
1:30
Are you considering making a visit to one of the SEC colleges like Auburn, Florida or MSU this spring? It seems like this college baseball season will be fun.
Keith Law
1:30
I'll see the top guys but not sure where. Very unlikely to go to MSU, just because of time/cost to get there when I can see them on the road, like at Vanderbilt ... which is in Nashville ... which has such great food.
Tim
1:30
Was there a guy that you just couldn’t quite put on the 100 yet, that you are afraid may come back to haunt you?
Keith Law
1:31
Sure. Florial and Mountcastle were guys I wrestled with a lot. Hill just wasn't back and healthy enough for me to push him on, even though I've always liked him.
Drew
1:31
Hey Keith, I love your work and content. Quick question on Chance Adams...It seems to be a consensus that hes not a top 100 prospect, but how would you value his upside and likelihood of reaching his potential?
Keith Law
1:31
Fourth/fifth starter ceiling, likely reliever.
David
1:31
I would not vote for Hoffman, but given how hard the baseball HOF is to get in, who are we to say he is undeserving?
Keith Law
1:31
Someone has to say it.
Jim (Chicago)
1:31
Thanks for the hard work, Keith. I imagine Luis Robert must be difficult to rank due to his limited time in the US, but I was curious if he moved up or down for you after you spoke to those at the White Sox hitting camp last week? Did you hear any new information on him after that camp?
Keith Law
1:32
Extremely difficult, but that hitting camp doesn't give us any new info. That's just practice, nothing from which we can glean any useful insight.
Rick C
1:32
I understand that the lists are non-sequential, but the inclusion of Allard in the top 50 (#26 IIRC) at midseason and then being totally off the top 100 a few months later really does not make sense to me.  How can someone go from being that highly regarded to being off the list entirely in such a short time?  And if he's really not a top 100 prospect now, that to me indicates a flaw in the process of developing the previous list.
Keith Law
1:33
The midseason top 50 list is a single file, developed in less than a week, with a sentence or two on each player. The top 100 is a two-month process that runs about 30,000 words that run over two weeks with long capsules on every top 100 guy. This really isn't hard to understand.
Jeff
1:33
Keith, I believe you had LAD's Mitch White on your mid season top 50, but not in the top 100 just released.  Can you explain what caused the drop & what you see as his likely outcome?  Thanks as always for the prospect package.  Only reason I keep paying for Insider.
Keith Law
1:33
He got hurt and wasn't good in the second half. Lot more on him in the Dodgers' writeup (which is actually done already ... 16 teams written so far).
Carl
1:33
As a Tigers fan, with the #1 pick in the draft is there much to get excited about?
Keith Law
1:34
Yes. Good draft, deep too, so good for a team with high picks and lots of bonus $.
Larry
1:34
Surprised you had Luis Robert in your rankings without having played a game on US soil. Were the reports from the DSL so strong that you couldn’t leave him off?
Keith Law
1:34
Plenty of precedent for that. Maitan and Sano made my lists in previous years before they played. I've ranked some drafted players who sat out the summer too.
J.P.
1:34
Where would Ohtani have ranked on your list, had he been eligible?
Keith Law
1:35
This is why he's not eligible. How do you compare a player with years of NPB data and success to players here who haven't faced that level of competition?
Henry
1:35
What is the Keith Law diagnosis for the frozen MLB market?
Keith Law
1:35
I'm thrilled. More time for me to work on the prospects.
Harold
1:35
Will Hoffman be the last sub 30 WAR guy to make the HOF?
Keith Law
1:35
We can only hope so. If you add Vizquel's WAR to Hoffman's, you get less than half of Barry Bonds'.
Timmy
1:36
I understand that a few spots in the rankings is virtually meaningless. That said, how do you determine who to rank higher b/t top players at the same position, like Buehler, Whitley, Kopech, for example?
Keith Law
1:36
I do a lot of pairwise comparisons to get to the final list, especially at the top. I'm comparing total packages and individual attributes.
JR
1:36
Did any team not have at least one player on the Top 100? As a Mets fan, was bummed to only see one guy in Top 100, I know they've promoted a bunch of top guys the past couple years, but still disappointing to see they haven't been able to replenish the farm like other teams (cough, yankees, cough) have.
Keith Law
1:37
Mariners and Royals were shut out. Giants had one at 95 and that's it. Rangers and Marlins each had one as well.
And the Mets have not done well in trades to acquire prospects from other teams, and they haven't gone over slot in the draft like most teams have to acquire extra high-ceiling guys.
Jake
1:38
How surprised would you be if Tatis became a better offensive player than Acuna?
Keith Law
1:38
Not surprised, but Acuna stays in the middle of the field and Tatis is maybe 50/50 to move to third or elsewhere.
Robbie
1:38
The angels actually have prospects on your top 100 list and I couldn't be more excited. Have you noticed any development method changes with the organization or did they simply make better picks?
Keith Law
1:38
Better picks. No more strip-mining in trades. International signings starting to bubble up to the list too.
Baltimore Joe
1:39
You’ve just been named the GM of the Orioles.  Name your first five moves.
Keith Law
1:39
This is largely about whether the owner wants to compete or rebuild. I think it's a rebuild situation - trade Machado for everything you can get, trade Britton if/when he's healthy, hope to pick high for a few years, actually spend something internationally.
Rick
1:40
I don’t recall you ever mentioning how much animal agriculture is contributing to global warming. Do you have any thoughts on ways to reduce this problem?
Keith Law
1:40
It's come up many times in my Saturday links posts. Developed societies tend to eat too much protein in general, more than we need, and the idea of the meat-centric meal is probably outdated. Dan Barber's book The Third Plate looks into this at great length and without preconceived notions.
JP4424
1:41
Read Adlers book, it'll let you know the diary isn't a joke.
Keith Law
1:41
That's kind of horrifying that anyone can write that pretentiously without a hint of irony or humor.
Greg
1:41
You seem to travel quite a bit within the states, but haven't heard much of your international treks, if any. Do you have a favorite int'l destination? What's on your bucket list?
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