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Klawchat 1/30/19
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Josh, Chicago (-59 right now)
1:17
You seem to be highest on Dunn, Kelenic and Sheffield for Mariners with having all three in top 60. Haven't seen them all that high in any other rankings. What are you seeing with them that others might not?
Keith Law
1:17
I wrote 200 or so words on every player. It's there.
Lale
1:17
What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law
1:19
He's probably a DH. He's huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I'd want for 2019, it'd be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn't take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.
Justin R
1:19
I noticed quite a large disparity between some of your top prospects (especially around the 50-70 range) and other lists (BA, BP, MLB Pipeline). I know you don't look at other lists, but have you identified any differences in the way you evaluate prospects vs. other outlets?
Keith Law
1:20
As I said, I think highly of MLB, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. Fangraphs' guys and I do a lot of in-person evaluations and incorporate that into our rankings. MLB and BA don't - and that's fine. It's a different method. But all four of us talk extensively to scouts and FO people about our lists too.
Ben
1:21
What's the latest on Adbert Alzolay?  I think he was near the end of your top 100 last year--is he healthy again?
Keith Law
1:21
Wasn't healthy and still needs a better third pitch.
Matt
1:21
Saw Adonis Medina fell off the list. I'm sorry if I missed an explanation; what were your thoughts there?
Keith Law
1:21
He did not fall off the list.
Randy
1:21
Corbin Martin and Josh James both made huge advances in the last year to become top 100 prospects.  Do you think this is more of a result from the Astros system of developing pitchers, or more of these two pitchers own personal development?
Keith Law
1:22
James made some personal life changes that helped him improve his conditioning and become more serious about learning to pitch. Martin just got away from bad usage in college into a system where they let him be himself on the mound.
Zach
1:22
Love the Trammell ranking, but I'm concerned people overvalued his strong showing at the Futures Game. Was there enough shown in his modest 2nd half numbers to warrant the big movement up prospect lists?
Keith Law
1:23
I didn't overvalue (or value) his showing in one exhibition game. His tools are there. I couldn't tell you what his second half numbers said - unless there was a physical or mechanical change, it's not worth slicing up the season into random tranches.
Rege
1:23
After a strong AFL, is Cole Tucker on the radar for top 100 at mid season?
Keith Law
1:23
No. AFL doesn't really tell us much - it's a hitter's environment, too.
Andrew
1:23
Was it an editor's choice to go from 51 to 100 instead of descending order?
Keith Law
1:23
Yes, their call, not mine.
Jamie
1:23
Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge?  What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law
1:23
Look at what he did in AAA - and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.
AZ
1:24
I know what you think of Bohemian Rhapsody. What would you think of Rami Malek winning best actor?
Keith Law
1:24
It's best actor, not best impersonator.
Brian Godish
1:24
Not a question, but great job on the annual prospect lists. I honestly only subscribe to ESPN+ for content like this, thanks.
Keith Law
1:24
Thank you!
This guy
1:24
Any advice for someone just starting to understand the need for coping with anxiety/panic issues?
Keith Law
1:24
Meditation/mindfulness.
Derek
1:24
Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law
1:25
Yes, and none is a good defender.
Andrew
1:25
Anthony Rizzo a comp for Grant Lavigne? 1B with plus ability to get on base and have average to a tick above average power?
Keith Law
1:25
I said that.
Justin R
1:25
How did the Yankees go in less than a year from one of the best systems in the game to nobody in the top 100?
Keith Law
1:25
Well, they didn't have "nobody in the top 100," so I don't know what you're asking.
Ghost of Josey Wales
1:25
Lone Star Ball said today that the Rangers have a number of red chip prospects, guys who fall in the 50-200 range overall in baseball, but no blue chips.  Is that a fair assessment of where the team stands, or are they being overly optimistic about how many second-tier guys there are there?
Keith Law
1:25
That's fair.
Carl
1:25
You said on Twitter that Yordan wasn't close to 100, yet I believe you were the high man on him last year. What happened to change your mind. Seems like he hit well. Was the defense projected better?
Keith Law
1:26
These lists are not sequential - I start the list from scratch every year. I don't even look at last year's list when starting a new one.
Nick
1:26
I am curious what you have heard about Wenceel Perez. Will he be best Tigers SS prospect?
Keith Law
1:26
Not now, but he's a name to watch.
Paulie P
1:26
Obviously Cal Quantrill had a miserable 2018 but are you still optimistic about his long-term prospects?
Keith Law
1:26
No, his stuff peaked in 2016 in his pro debut and for two years now it hasn't progressed.
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