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Klawchat 1/30/20
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JP
1:51
would MLB consider it a "problem" if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law
1:52
They wouldn't, and I'm not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.
Michael
1:52
For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn't rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn...
Keith Law
1:53
Is that what Sonmez tweeted?
Spencer
1:53
A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I'm beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can't plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law
1:54
Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.
Lee
1:54
It's been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it's destined to blow up in the teams face.  I'd love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what's happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I'm not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I'm all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it's almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law
1:54
He can ask for that, doesn't mean he'll get it or close to it.
Giuseppe
1:54
Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law
1:55
Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands - knuckles, no fingertips - so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn't relaxed enough.
Dan
1:55
Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers' "wins" in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it's so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law
1:55
Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keep calling your reps.
John
1:55
Why is Dusty's reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law
1:55
It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.
Shaun
1:55
favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law
1:56
The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?
Erik
1:56
Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law
1:56
I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection - Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.
Kip
1:57
Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law
1:57
Fear. It's unpopular, even though it's quite safe overall. It's a science literacy issue.
TomBruno23
1:57
Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law
1:57
You stay ... over there.
JB
1:58
It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he's coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law
1:58
I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.
Joe
1:58
Reds fans would like to point out that it's embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn't a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law
2:02
I'm sure they would like to claim that, but they'd be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I've pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don't think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn't good in 2019, but I never said that because it's not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Mike
2:02
I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I'm trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it's just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you're right, I'd hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law
2:04
The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it's too soon to point out negative facts about someone's who's died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone's death mean we can't discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.
Jason
2:04
What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law
2:05
Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.
E.H. Zwick
2:05
Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law
2:05
Yes.
Nolan
2:05
don't talk about guns after a school shooting, don't talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law
2:06
Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It's inevitable. Then we'll see what it's like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we'll regret how we've acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
2:07
That's all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I'll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!
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