JotCast | Klawchat 10/11/18

Klawchat 10/11/18

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jake

1:43

Any interest in the Giants job? You could love the a very progressive city and run a team with a massive payroll, but has been slapped in the face recently due to their reliance on overpaid, older players. Seems like it could be a solid fix-it-up project.

Keith Law

1:44

I'm not on any team's longlist, but that is a very appealing job for a qualified candidate, for the reasons you said, a longstanding analytics presence, some very good longtime scouts, and an unbelievable local food and coffee scene within walking distance of the ballpark.

Dusty

1:44

Any thoughts you have on Wander Javier coming into the 2019 season? Can he shoot his way back into the top 100?

Keith Law

1:44

He wasn't in my top 100 before so that's a no.

James

1:45

If pitcher vs hitter data is not useful on a 1 to 1 basis (1 hitter vs 1 specific pitcher), do you think we'll get to the point where a pitcher can be grouped into a bucket (power pitcher, command pitcher) and a hitter's splits against that TYPE of pitcher will be useful? For example, hitter X struggles against hard thrower with a slider, but is better against a hard thrower with a curveball? Is there value to extract from that? Presumably teams are already doing it?

Keith Law

1:45

We already do that. That's what platoon split data are.

Diego

1:46

Any thoughts on why LaCava and Cherington would decline to interview for Mets GM job?

Keith Law

1:47

Cherington declined, as did Levine. I don't know if Lacava declined or wasn't asked. I think the industry impression of that job is negative - that you're being asked to win while your hands are tied by a low payroll and meddlesome ownership.

Joules

1:47

Why would Machado insist on SS suddenly? Top 2 3B in baseball, pretty rough at SS. Is this possibly coming from his agent?

Keith Law

1:47

Maybe, but also, I wonder if this is just to open up his market further.

1:47

Do you know the typical thresholds for when the P Value becomes significant for batter versus pitcher match ups? It's dependent upon the current results wouldn't a .050 BA over 50 or 100 PA for example be enough to say that a certain batter does not bat as well against a pitcher has he would on average?

Keith Law

1:48

It's never. The best answer is never. I'm amazed by how often people want to come up with some number where the data are meaningful. If a batter faced the same pitcher every day for a year, maybe we could talk.

Dr. Bob

1:48

When my boys played in Little League, I noticed boys who were better than the others not be better a couple of years later. Some develop earlier than others. That must make scouting high school players tough. Some may have already peaked.

Keith Law

1:49

It's why I ignore any list that pretends to rank high school prospects for any draft beyond the current cycle. Remember how Drew Ward was supposed to be the best player in his class? He ended up a bad pick in the third round. He was 16 as a high school freshman and huge for his age. When the other players caught up physically it turned out that had been his only advantage.

jimmyb

1:50

I know you have nothing to do with the selection of ads on the Baseball Tonight podcast, but do you find it odd (or perhaps, concerning) that ESPN is running ads for Juul, given the issues associated with specifically targeting minors?

Keith Law

1:50

I don't actually know what that is.

Fred

1:50

Do Execs ever ask you your opinions on prospects in other orgs?

Keith Law

1:50

Of course. Now, whether they take those opinions seriously is another question...

1:50

You think we get a WS rematch? I think we do.

Keith Law

1:52

Yeah, that's my prediction. Dodgers in 6, Astros in 6. I think I'd rather see Boston get there from the AL for a different mix of players (especially getting Mookie Betts on TV all those games), and of course Milwaukee making it for the second time in franchise history (first in 35 years) would be an amazing story, but I don't think that happens.

Chris

1:52

On a Prospects Live podcast, you were singled out as someone who was down on Andres Gimenez hitting ability because you hadn't seen him in a while. Has he improved or is he still not an impact bat?

Keith Law

1:52

Sounds like a mistake. I just saw him this summer.

andy

1:53

If the Rockies make an earnest attempt to extend Arenado and he says no and chooses to enter the year without an extension in place, what would you do were you in Bridich's shoes? Would you trade him or 'go for it' with him on an expiring deal, knowing you might end up losing him for just a comp pick?

Keith Law

1:53

No, I'd trade him. You're talking about a team that barely made the playoffs this year - the odds of them doing so again aren't so high that I'd value retaining him knowing we might only get that draft pick.

Steve

1:53

I realize "fairness" isn't exactly the best word, so I'll try this instead. Do you think the MLB postseason offers the best possible outcomes? So many games played for a potential one and done or blip over a 5 game series seems, well, unfair, especially given that the performance is used as a sign of success. Do you think there's a may to make the postseason more meritocratic?

Keith Law

1:54

I don't, nor do I think that's the point. We can argue over who's the best team after the regular season. The postseason is just a tournament for a trophy. It'll never determine who's best - it determines who gets the trophy. I think most fans are good with this split, as am I.

Michael K

1:54

Hi Keith. I’m a huge fan of the Giants. I haven’t heard any real rumors of who they are talking to regarding their open GM/Head of Baseball ops. Have you?

Keith Law

1:55

Not many. One name I did hear was Jason McLeod of the Cubs, who'd be excellent and has the background from working there and in Boston, in scouting and player development for two orgs with strong analytics departments. I haven't checked to see if there's anything to it, but he's the right prototype for the Giants, who have been and should commit to remaining a strong scouting organization.

Deke

1:55

Have you heard of CBD gummies? They're apparently gaining in popularity as a knockoff anxiety helper. Any opinion?

Keith Law

1:56

Heard of, there's a little evidence that they work (it's extremely hard to research anything related to marijuana because we live in Gilead), but I haven't tried them.

Matt

1:56

A bit of a random question here, but do older pitchers tend to decline gradually or fall off cliffs without warning? The impetus for the question is Justin Verlander, who's pitching as well as he ever has, but is nearly 36. I can't help but continually worry that the next start is going to be the one where the wheels come off. Is this rational?

Keith Law

1:57

It's rational, but also a bit irrational in that you should appreciate what he is right now in the present. We all go into that great good night eventually.

Ron

1:57

Keith- The talk going around that the Twins are looking at Ross and DeRosa just has to be that, right? I mean come on. Some younger guy with some experience and an analytical approach and rapport with the young players is needed. I hope Falvey and Levine are thinking the latter and not the former. Geeesh!

Keith Law

1:58

Again, still don't understand the fixation with guys who've never managed. You have at least 120 guys managing in full-season minor leagues every year. Not one of them is qualified to even interview ahead of two guys who talk real good but have never so much as run a coat check stand?

Chuck

1:58

What is the Orioles problem with developing pitchers?

Keith Law

1:59

They have a poor track record of keeping them healthy. Getting at the root cause of that would require knowledge and access I do not have, but if I were GM there it would be my first priority, because they have good arms on the way again.

Matthew

1:59

You mentioned that Garrett Hampson might not have enough power to be an MLB regular. Do you see Myles Straw in the same light?

Keith Law

1:59

I do.

andy

1:59

How close is Brendan Rodgers to being ready? Do you think he could take DJ Lemahieu's job starting next year?

Keith Law

1:59

I do.