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Klawchat 10/20/22
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Keith Law
2:08
I think a 3-4 WAR corner outfielder is about right.
Billy
2:08
How does Jordan Lawlar look in the Fall League? AZ Republic quoted a scout who said he looks better than all the rest of the Dbacks players. That's incredible, since Carroll looks like a stud.
Keith Law
2:08
He was in my first AFL notebook, linked at the top of this chat.
JT
2:08
"Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. "

Remind Ana that there aren't only two eye colours, too, hey? How two gametes mix has to produce an I/O sitch?
Keith Law
2:09
It's a rather weird, new to me transphobic argument. Just leave other people and their bodies alone. It's not your business.
John
2:09
To what extent does WAR take into account how often a player is on the field?  I assume it doesn't.  But if I sign a high WAR player with an injury history (thinking Correa), then I really need to make sure I have a relatively strong utility player who can fill the gaps. Viewed through that lens, would it be preferable to sign a player with a slightly lower WAR but who stays on the field more (e.g., Bogaerts, if we ignore that his WAR was slightly higher than Correa's this year)?
Keith Law
2:10
Of course it does - if you hit at the same rate in 80 games vs 160 games, your WAR for the latter total (ceteris paribus) will be a lot higher.
Swinging A’s
2:10
Zack Gelof, just a guy or a GUY.  Thanks Keith
Keith Law
2:10
I'm in. He's a GUY.
twinkie town
2:10
Did you get a chance to see Edouard Julien in Az?   If yes, your impression?
Keith Law
2:11
All I saw was him taking pitches. My gut reaction was that he is also too passive.
Michael
2:11
"When should I prioritize their civil rights?" What a joke. How about not try to willfully hurt anyone?
Keith Law
2:11
Do unto others, no? I thought that was in that book the transphobes are so fond of?
Todd
2:12
Thoughtrs on Will Warren Yankees? Legit MLB starter?
Keith Law
2:12
Reliever. Wrote him up in August.
Mike
2:12
Do you think it’s a coincidence that Bader, Donaldson and Torres will all have their contracts run out when Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez should be ready for MLB full time?
Keith Law
2:13
I do not think it's a coincidence, at least around Volpe. I'm pretty sure they were low key betting on him being ready for 2023, recognizing that the free agent market would probably cover them if he wasn't (and that's before we knew Correa would get an opt out).
Ollie
2:13
Did you have Daulton Varsho becoming an elite defensive outfielder on your 2022 bingo card? Because I sure didn't! Wow, he's such a good athlete.
Keith Law
2:13
I absolutely, 100% did not have that.
Michael
2:13
Hey James, check out how inflation is in other countries compared to the US. Much lower here
Keith Law
2:14
The Euro zone is around 10%, almost 200 basis points above ours.
Insert Witty Name Here
2:14
By prioritize, I mean changing my usual behavior.  For example, is a pronoun really a rights issue? If I mistakenly call a “they” a “him”, that person gets upset. Is 5% of the population a large enough sample size to where I have to be fully cognizant of what language I use? And if so, what’s the threshold for us to have to worry about everyone preferences? 2%? 5%? 10%?
Keith Law
2:14
Using proper pronouns is a hardship?
Dave
2:15
You're running the Orioles. Do you spend on a starter and let the young position players play?
Keith Law
2:15
Yes, and see above for more on what I would do (and expect them to do).
I don't think they were actually as good as their record this year, but I also think they will be a flat-out better team next year even without outside help. So give them outside help and they might be a 90+ win team.
Kevin Made
2:15
Did you get Cristian Hernández and I mixed up in your earlier response to the Mervis question?

Also thoughts on Jordan Wicks' new slider? Stuff+ loves it. Does it bump his ceiling up?
Keith Law
2:15
I did not confuse the two of you.
TomBruno23
2:16
Interesting episode of The Daily this morning about how Republicans are using Inflation, Crime and Immigration as the issues to sway swing voters.  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000583...
Keith Law
2:17
I saw a ridiculous number of political ads and billboards in Arizona, and the two most common themes for Republican candidates were the border (overblown, but at least they're a border state) and ... fentanyl. It's like some focus group told campaign managers that fentanyl was a new four-letter word or something. Nobody is putting fentanyl in your kid's Halloween basket. You can't get sick just by touching it. All these myths about papers soaked in fentanyl and fentanyl wiped on car doors ... they're hoaxes, and also ridiculous, because what user or dealer is just throwing the stuff away anyway?
2:18
You know what I didn't see mentioned anywhere? The pandemic, which has killed over a million Americans. Or wages.
Mike
2:18
Global inflation is the product of 10+ years, and multiple adminstrations, artificially depressing interest rates by increasing the money supply.  Inflation at some point was a mathematical certainty - it was just a matter of when and how high.
Keith Law
2:18
Good point.
Michael
2:19
Hey Keith- I know changing of a manager is usually not worth more than a couple wins. Was there something specific in the change from Girardi to Rob T that made it such a huge impact on the Phils season? Or are you not buying that the change was the reason for the subsequent success. Post hoc ergo propter hoc or no?
Keith Law
2:19
I am more inclined to believe such a change mattered when specific players improve after the change in meaningful ways - like Stott.
Appa Yip Yip
2:19
If you meet someone named Thomas and they're like actually I prefer Tom is it a hardship to call them Tom?
Keith Law
2:19
Don't a lot of people get irrationally upset if they're called ma'am instead of sir or vice versa?
ChrisP
2:19
How soon before Neto gets to the big leagues? His skill set seems like he might be a quick mover
Keith Law
2:19
I would guess by mid-2024.
Although it's the Angels, he might be up next week.
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