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Klawchat 10/3/19
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Keith Law
1:21
I'm assuming Boras will be thinking 8/$250MM as a floor, probably asking for more to start. He'll play at 30 next year, though, so I'm not expecting the length of deals we saw for Machado/Harper last winter. BTW, Rendon was so injury-plagued in his early 20s, but his lowest PA in any of the last four seasons was 597. Give him credit for newfound durability.
John
1:21
Seems to me as if the area around Nationals Stadium is an exception to the idea that stadiums don't fuel economic growth in the area.  Any thoughts?  Not trying to provoke an argument, and the general rule may still hold; I just find it interesting.
Keith Law
1:22
Did the stadium spur that, or other local initiatives to develop a dead area?
Pramit
1:22
Do you believe that with heavy bullpen usage and openers that teams may not be developing starters to have enough secondary to turnover a line up 3 times?
Keith Law
1:22
If there's a developmental gap it's in the minors where pitchers are often restricted to pitch counts of 80 or lower so they don't learn to turn over lineups.
Eric
1:22
Who is your pick to win the WS?
Keith Law
1:23
Houston over Tampa, NYY over Minnesota, Houston over NYY. LAD over Washington, St. Louis over Atlanta, LAD over St. Louis. Houston over LAD.
Ben
1:23
Why don't teams simply throw balls to minor leaguers coming to the big leagues until they prove they're disciplined? It seems like discipline is the main thing most young hitters lack, and we see young hitters come up, start hot, then never find that level of success again when teams stop throwing right at them. There are exceptions for minor leaguers with known discipline, obviously, but it seems like there is a lot of the old school "challenge them" mindset to throw strikes and just see if they can hit it when the opposite may be more successful.
Keith Law
1:23
I disagree with the premise that most young hitters lack discipline.
Tim Robinson
1:23
Doesn't Beltran make as much sense as BVW did?
Keith Law
1:23
You make a valid point.
JP
1:23
Does news of the SI firings today impact your impending free agency on 12/31/19?
Keith Law
1:24
Uh, that's kind of gross. A few dozen people lost their jobs today. This isn't and shouldn't be about me.
Eric
1:24
Do you see the Mets as a playoff team next year? Is Pete Alonso for real?
Keith Law
1:24
He's for real, although I doubt he hits 53 homers with the 2018 baseball. I don't think they're a playoff team as currently constituted, but BVW will certainly make moves this winter. Mind you I didn't say good moves. Just moves.
Jon V
1:25
Cleveland is facing the inevitable with Lindor but have now publicly stated that they won’t shop
Keith Law
1:25
I don't believe that. It makes no sense not to take offers on him.
Eric
1:25
I know it's still months away, but the derek jeter hall of fame voting is going to break the internets, right?
Keith Law
1:25
I don't think so - he's going to sail in, probably unanimously now that that seal is broken.
Tom
1:26
Should I be encouraged by Pavin Smith's season?
Keith Law
1:26
I'm not sure what is encouraging about it.
Brian
1:26
With winter meetings in san diego this year, will you visit any breweries or have a book signing?
Keith Law
1:26
Probably neither, sorry. I can't leave the meetings for that length of time, and I'm not staying extra this year.
Eric
1:27
NL Cy Young winner?
Keith Law
1:27
I did that column last week.
Mad Max's Brown Eye
1:27
What are the requirements for minor league stadia to be acceptable for, say, AA vs. AAA? Wouldn't it make a ton of sense for the Nationals to use Richmond as a AAA base, and for some more western team to take Fresno? I understand that you'd need to put another team in the AA Eastern League, but some of the affiliations make no sense.
Keith Law
1:27
Some is historical, some is driven by market sizes, but yeah, one East team getting stuck with a AAA affiliate in the mountains of Titan is not really very sensible.
Hank
1:28
How much do you weigh performance in the AFL vs full season minor leagues (ie Royce Lewis)?
Keith Law
1:28
Zero. AFL performance is not predictive: Sample sizes are tiny and competition is highly variable.
John
1:28
A different sort of question on Mookie Betts.  If we take him at his word about testing the market, then a team is trading only for his 2020 services.  That's still valuable, but it differs from the usual scenario when the trade partner thinks it has a chance at an extension.  If that's the case, then the trade partner has to be a team that's really close to winning it all now.  There really aren't all that many teams that (a) are in contention, (b) have somewhere to put him, and (c) have major prospects to give.  Is it fair to say that it might be harder to trade him than people expect?
Keith Law
1:29
That's a very reasonable argument. I guess I'd counter by saying that teams would make room for a player of Betts' caliber, even trading the player he might replace, to get one year of possibly 8 WAR.
Joe
1:29
Knowing where the Tigers farm system is now, and ownership's unwillingness to spend in FA, when do you think is a realistic timeline to think the team could contend again? Close to never with this ownership philosophy?
Keith Law
1:30
I wouldn't say that but I think they're more in the 4-5 years away category than closer.
Robert
1:30
I heard the Rangers might look to move one of their left handed hitting outfielders.  Is Nomar Mazara a good buy low candidate?  He's had a lot of at bats, but is still fairly young.
Keith Law
1:30
I wonder if he gets better with a new org, just from a change of scenery/new approach. But maybe this is just what he is.
Jeff
1:30
Do you think the Wilpons/BVW combo will make it tough for the Mets to hire a highly sought-after manager? Why would a Maddon or Girardi volunteer to work in that circus?
Keith Law
1:30
Money. If they're willing to pay they'll get whoever they want.
BE
1:30
Avila is talking about not rushing prospects. Is there any reason not to see Mize and Manning in 2020 other than service time manipulation?
Keith Law
1:31
Mize ended the year on the shelf and I want to see him fully healthy before I think about a timetable for his debut.
Andy
1:31
Can Trammell play CF? In everything you've written, he only has the arm for LF, but would his glove play in CF? San Diego has a lot in the corners, but not much in center.
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