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Klawchat 10/31/19
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Carl c
1:28
You hinted for weeks that you were reading unbearable lightness of being, but I never saw the review
Keith Law
1:28
Right here: https://klaw.me/2U0FZex
Bob Pollard
1:28
Unanswerable question perhaps, but assuming the Happy Fun Ball goes away, how do we even evaluate players like Soler, Schwarber, Garver, etc., moving forward? Are breakouts legit or do we have to look at them with a blanket skepticism?
Keith Law
1:29
I feel better about guys who we know had power, like the first two, than the guys who could hit and suddenly developed power, like Garver.
Raul
1:29
Half of Padres land is upset that Tingler, an unknown, was brought in instead of a "proven" guy like Washington, and that Preller is crazy considering ownership is seemingly getting impatient. My thought process is if you're gonna lose your job, may as well go with the guy who best fits what you're looking for instead of a name manager, right?
Keith Law
1:29
I'm a big Tingler fan, both from having met him and from his resume with Texas. Fans who don't like a managerial hire who's "unknown" are making a simple mistake: Just because YOU don't know who the guy is doesn't mean the industry doesn't know who he is.
Jesse B
1:29
Are the WhiteSox close enough that if they grabbed Gerritt Cole they could make a playoff run this year, or are they a year away from making moves like that, ala the Cubs?
Keith Law
1:30
I think Cole or Strasburg to the White Sox would make them fringe contenders.
Brint
1:30
When do you think Spencer Howard joins the Phillies’ rotation full-time?
Keith Law
1:30
If healthy, by end of summer.
Jay
1:30
Do you think Kingery’s strong year will lead to regular playing time for a 20/20 in 2020?  Pun most definitely intended
Keith Law
1:31
He has the speed for the SBs but I've had a hard time seeing how he'd get to 20 HR in the majors (Happy Fun Ball aside).
Brett
1:31
If you were running a front office, what effect (if any) would MLB's ball shenanigans have on your roster/FA planning this year.
Keith Law
1:31
I'd just be wary of assuming any HR spikes from 2019 were real, and ask my R&D guys to make sure any projections accounted for this uncertainty. Also, I'd consider looking at pitchers who may have been inordinately hurt by the altered baseball - slider guys whose sliders backed up, for example.
Alex
1:32
I enjoyed your paste article on board games!  Was wondering if you saw the list on greatest novels of 2010.  What did you think?  The Goldfinch was a bit high for me
Keith Law
1:35
Looking now, that's a great list. Lincoln in the Bardo would be a contender for #1. Swamplandia! was just not that good. Station Eleven is amazing. I've read 7 of the top 10, then I taper off. Night Circus is also too high. Swing Time and Americanah seem like they're placed where they are because of who wrote them, not because they were that good. Biggest omission for me is In the Light of What We Know. I'd also throw All the Light We Cannot See and An Unkindness of Ghosts on there too.
Matt
1:35
But what happens if the owner is the one that created/tolerated that behavior? You can't just Donald Sterling every owner that's a prick.
Keith Law
1:35
No, but there are more remedies than just firing someone/forcing an owner to sell.
Bill
1:35
Odds we see Mackenzie Gore in the rotation midseason next year?
Keith Law
1:35
Nonzero, below 50/50.
Eric
1:35
Any consolation to be found for Braves fans today? They were a better team than the Nats all year, only to blow it vs. a pretty beatable Cardinals team in the NLDS. Every NLE team has won a pennant since they last won a WS game, and thrice now they've seen a team they finished ahead of in the standings go on to win the series as a wild card.
Keith Law
1:36
Nats were much better built for October, though: strong front 3 in the rotation, more patient heart of the lineup. Could see Atlanta getting there if Soroka stays healthy, Fried keeps growing as a pitcher, and one of Touki/Wright/Anderson/Wilson hits their ceiling.
Matt
1:36
In your video chat the other day, you mentioned that Carlson probably won't see MLB in 2020 because he is only 20 yo and finished year in AA. In fact, he's 21 and finished season in AAA. Not trying to "well actually" you, just curious if that changes his ETA for you at all?
Keith Law
1:37
He played at 20 all season; he only turned 21 last week. I use seasonal ages when discussing players. And he played all of 18 games in AAA, which, while I should have acknowledged it, is a drop in the ocean.
Andy
1:38
Despite the FO saying otherwise, seems like Cleveland will listen on Lindor. At this point do you agree with some patch that splits the middle, trying to keep competitive? Or should they just go full-on rebuild?
Keith Law
1:38
They should explore trading him now, while his value might be at a peak. Could sustain the franchise for multiple years if you make the right trade.
Buctober
1:38
Obviously accounting for your personal connection to with, curious what about Tony LaCava's skill set would or wouldn't make him a good GM for the Pirates now.
Keith Law
1:40
It's a bit glib, but the two things that most sunk the Pirates recently were poor returns on trades and position players failing to develop as expected. Lacava certainly has strength in the latter, given his long player development experience. The former could be scouting, analytics, decision-making structure, or some of all of those things; I would say Tony is strongest in the third, also has long experience with the first, and showed real affinity for using analytical tools back when I worked with him in the mid-2000s.
I'm always wary of over-endorsing people I know well, and he was a mentor to me in Toronto, so I absolutely have a conflict when discussing him ... but the Pirates would be terribly remiss if they didn't at least interview him for the position.
Andrew
1:41
Any names to look out for in the upcoming Rule 5 draft?
Keith Law
1:41
Those rosters won't be set for three more weeks.
Matt
1:41
What is the players union going to do about younger players not getting paid? Aaron Judge can be the face of MLB for 5 years and by the time he faces FA, no team offers him a long term deal because of his age.
Keith Law
1:41
Raising the minimum salary or adding salary arbitration for 2+ players (not just super-2 guys) would help.
Dax
1:41
Could Mike Montgomery put in a solid year as a starter in KC next year? Probably helps that he'll no longer bounce back and forth between being a starter and a reliever.
Keith Law
1:42
I still think he's best cast as a long relief guy.
Sean
1:42
Regarding your new book, based on the title alone I'm expecting some good analysis of, and references to the psychology of decision making. Can you shed any light on how in depth that gets? Can't wait to read it.
Keith Law
1:44
That's the idea, focusing on cognitive biases and illusions rather than, say, the neuroscience of decision-making. I rely a lot on popular and scholarly literature on these biases, describing how they were first identified and explaining them in lay terms. I love Thinking Fast and Slow, but that's not a book for everybody.
JP
1:44
it appears the Red Sox did not interview a minority candidate before hiring their new Chief Baseball Officer. will MLB do anything about that?
Keith Law
1:44
There is no firm rule like the NFL has. Did they interview anyone else? I never heard another name, just that they interviewed Bloom and hired him.
Michael
1:45
Do you have any links to pieces or stories criticizing Hudson for missing game 1 of the NLCS? All I have read/heard is responses to criticism but I haven't read any actual stories of criticism.
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