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Klawchat 10/7/22
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Scott of Lincolnshire
2:09
On the shift: could you start seeing infielders more in motion pre-pitch?  Like if Schwarber is up, have your SS running towards 2nd base right when pitch is thrown?
Keith Law
2:09
I suggested this on the podcast yesterday - it could be weirdly entertaining, like having the one man in motion on offense in the NFL.
Dave
2:09
Hi Klaw. Just wondering if you've seen or heard about Red Sox prospects Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela? Are they guys or GUYS?
Keith Law
2:10
I haven't seen Bleis but saw and wrote about Rafaela multiple times this summer.
Tom2
2:10
I see where Roger Maris Jr wants separate HR categories for his dad and Judage and for Bonds, McGwire et al. But I don’t remember seeing him explain how his dad hit 16, 39, then 61 HRs in 3 season. You know, if we’re sure everything was on the up and up back then.
A Salty Scientist
2:10
I love your yearly column on 'misses.' When thinking about these for evaluating your own biases in evaluation, how do you try to determine whether someone hit on their 99th percentile outcome versus a more systematic issue where you had their 50th percentile (and whole distribution) pegged incorrectly?
Keith Law
2:11
McNeil is a good example of someone where I didn't change anything. He's a 99th percentile guy, with an unusual skill set too. Whereas Bieber is someone who did change my process, as did Goldschmidt, guys who found different paths to success from what I anticipated or considered likely, and thus required me to open my mind more and see those new growth patterns or possibilities.
Heather
2:12
Speaking of Kirby Puckett, should he be in the HOF?
Keith Law
2:12
I thought he was a borderline case as a player, but I do not believe we should start removing players once enshrined. I wouldn't have voted for him at the time, though.
Appa Yip Yip
2:12
I find it hard to believe, given that we know coaches in the minors were recommending sticky stuff to pitchers in the minors, that there weren't coaches in the 90s taking guys aside and being like, listen you gotta add some muscle. Developing players is how minor league coaches get promotions. Blaming individuals for systemic issues is a pretty classic play though.
Keith Law
2:14
Or coaches in the 60s and 70s saying, hey, these little green pills will give you a little more focus. To say nothing of the 100-plus MLB players with therapeutic use exemptions for ADHD medications that are built around amphetamines. They improve attention, reduce reaction times, and speed executive functioning. Hank Aaron even admitting using them at least once.
Steve
2:14
one thing overlooked in all the single-season HR records talk is that almost all of them came in expansion years or within a couple of years of expansion, which is why Judge's feat this year is all the more impressive and should be held in that regard rather than some mythical "clean" record
Keith Law
2:16
Correct - I pointed that out on one of the podcasts yesterday. We don't have asterisks for expansion years even though we have very strong evidence that those years (and the temporary talent dilution they create) lead to move outlier performances. Maris hit 61 in the Angels/Senators 2 expansion year. McGwire & Sosa had their chase in the Dbacks/Rays expansion year. Even the Marlins/Rockies expansion year led to a huge spike in leaguewide offense.
Kevin
2:16
Could Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Chourio turn into Julio/Wander type of prospects?
Keith Law
2:16
I think they already are. Chourio is more like Wander, Elly more like Julio (who has tightened his approach a lot since A-ball, which Elly needs to do).
James
2:16
You admit you are not a football/NFL fan.  (Or at least that used to be the case).   Is the trolling of Carson Wentz a bit of sorts, or do you dislike him for some reason?
Keith Law
2:17
My wife is a huge Eagles fan, and I saw more than enough of Carson Wentz to be glad to see the team move on from him.
Hurts is a blast to watch.
Freddie
2:18
What’s the ceiling for Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law
2:18
Above-average regular, borderline star.
Tony
2:18
Where do the White Sox even go from here? Bloated payroll, underperforming players, weak FA class, bad farm so little trade ammo... what a mess!
Keith Law
2:19
I think you lean into this core at least one more year and try to contend again in a winnable division in 2023.
OK, that's all for this week - thank you all so much for the questions & for reading. I'll head to the AFL later this month and will file a few scouting notebooks from out there, after which I'll get to free agent rankings. Stay safe!
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