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Klawchat 11/12/20
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Keith Law
1:25
No idea on their budget but yes, Wong's a good fit for most teams. Still shocked the Cards just let him go.
DRB
1:25
I want to ask your opinion on Blake Snell's last start.  When does the long view of analytics become a disservice to individual games?  Blake Snell was dealing, just like pitchers have dealt since the beginning of baseball.  Even though if that game was played 100 times, going to the pen may have been the higher percentage play, doesn't randomization mean that some times the manager should play a hunch and just leave Snell in the game?
Keith Law
1:25
Snell wasn't dealing, though; wasn't his fastball velocity starting to slip, which has always been the traditional indicator that a pitcher is tiring and needs to come out? Plus 'dealing' isn't really a thing - you're dealing until the moment you're not. It has no predictive power.
1:26
(I would have left Snell in to face Betts, who nobody gets out, and then Seager, so you get the LHP vs LHB. But I don't  share some of the ire for the decision that many people feel.)
Jon
1:26
Keith, what can the average person do to help ensure that we don't end up with a savvier, Trump-like individual take over in 2024?
Keith Law
1:27
Get more involved, starting at the local level. Don't take the midterms off from activism. Register more voters. Fight voter suppression if it exists in your area. And support real fact-based journalism when you can.
Brian (Austin)
1:27
Keith, have you had any experience with Goldbelly yet?  Thinking of ordering some Pizzeria Bianco and was wondering it if will be worth the price.
Keith Law
1:28
I have - a friend with the Bianco Group sent some of their pizzas through Goldbelly and they were great. It's a different experience frozen & reheated at home, but the flavors were all still there. You just get more of a cracker-like crust than the softer version at the restaurant.
Tim
1:28
Any surprises to you on who did and did not accept the qualifying offers?
Keith Law
1:28
Nope. I assumed Gausman would, expected the four who declined to do so, and wasn't sure either way on Stroman.
Todd Boss
1:28
Delaware certified their results 11/5/20!  First state to ratify the Constitution, and now the first state to certify the election that ousts the greatest threat to that Constitution since.
Keith Law
1:28
We do some things right here. And I like our chances to do even more with so many progressive voices in our legislature.
Matt
1:30
You gonna join Parler and give them your driver's license and passport information?
Keith Law
1:31
Is there anything more telling than how many people signed up there and agreed to those absurd terms, and how those are the same people who believe bullshit conspiracy theories like QAnon? It's all a grift.
DRB
1:31
Since you're a big music guy, what do you use to listen?  What kind of speakers/headphones do you use?  I have the Harman Kardon set up in my car, and it's life changing, highly recommend.
Keith Law
1:32
Nothing fancy. I have never really seen the value in those investments. Also I listen to a lot of music in the car or while moving around the house so I use speakers.
Todd Boss
1:32
The Nats are on the hook to pay significant amounts of deferred dollars in 2021 (somewhere in the $26.5M range including buyouts of 2021 options).  Do you think they'll use these dollars (which are already accounted for in prior year's luxury tax salary cap considerations) as an excuse not to go near the $210M 2021 cap figure?
Keith Law
1:32
Possibly, and we always knew eventually they would have to pay for the investments they made in some of those players (which helped them win in 2019). It may be more of an excuse to keep payroll down than an excuse to avoid the luxury tax specifically.
Todd Boss
1:32
Do you think newly-minted Cy Young winner Bauer will stick to his 1-year contract only demand?  What could he realistically command on a one year deal?  Could he beat his former UCLA teammate and best friend Gerritt Cole's $36 AAV figure?
Keith Law
1:33
I've assumed he'd get to free agency and take a five-year offer, which he should get, but I don't think he'd get Cole money - he just doesn't have Cole's track record.
Alex
1:33
Is there any doubt in your mind Steve Cohen is going to make at least one big FA signing if nothing else to appease the fan base and announce to MLB owners the Mets are going to be a serious contender for all free agents going forward?
Keith Law
1:33
I assume they'll be among the biggest players in free agency, and given their roster, they should be.
addoeh
1:33
Just saw your new Athletic article.  Would a roster like the NFL, where there is a 53 man active roster but a 45 man gameday roster, work?  There would be a limit on how many relief pitchers you could have on a gameday, but you could have more on an active roster for the next day.  Guys could easily move between the two and would get service time "credit" just for being on the active roster.
Keith Law
1:33
I worry that that would be too easy for teams to manipulate.
Michael
1:33
Do you agree that the Dems didn't fare as well as hoped in part because they are so wishy washy on what they stand for and using their power to affect change? E.g. lack of house subpoenas.  Also how do you feel about them trying to blame the AOC wing for their problems?
Keith Law
1:35
It seems that Dems fared worse where their candidates were more moderate; progressives have clearer, stronger messages about ways they intend to help the working class voter, and that resonated. That's an overgeneralization across the whole country but my takeaway from the overall results is that the Democrats need to embrace progressive messaging and make sure they are explicit about policies they will enact. Running against Trump only worked to elect Biden this year, not the whole ballot, and that will not be a factor in 2022 (we hope).
Sammy So-so
1:35
Trevor Bauer seems really difficult to value based on his uneven career. Do you think he's an elite starter now or will just be paid like one? Thanks.
Keith Law
1:35
He's been an elite starter once in a full season, and again in this truncated season. I wouldn't call anyone with that little of a track record an elite starter.
Seth
1:36
I know you generally think the Rule 5 draft is a lot to do about nothing but considering how many minor leaguers didnt play last year, do you think there maybe more to it this year where teams may be able to find someone available they previously did not?
Keith Law
1:36
I do not. Teams have no data or scouting reports to use to make those determinations.
Nick
1:36
The logic behind the Phillies not interviewing anyone for GM is...nonexistent? Are they just going to wait for Theo Epstein next year?
Keith Law
1:36
I've heard that hypothesis. Theo's track record is superb, but I'm not sure waiting a year is in the franchise's best interests.
silvpak
1:36
though they have insane roster flexibility, do you see the dodgers actually doing anything of real note during the offseason? i'd assume they resign turner to something like 2/22 or 3/30 (that's a certainty if the universal dh comes in and beaty and rios can spell him at 3b) and i think they'll resign kike, as that marriage makes sense for both sides, but that's less certain pending lux. other than being opportunistic with the bullpen, i just can't see la getting into any big ticket items  unless the lindor price drops to maybe 2/3 of what mookie cost (which would push turner and kike out, you'd assume), they want to drive the price up (lemeihu), or there's a 'steal' on a one year prove it deal. thoughts?
Keith Law
1:37
I could see them extending Seager or trading for Lindor (it's either/or, though). I'd guess they'll surf the lower end of the market for one-year relief options, but do they have a substantial need anywhere else?
Glad you mentioned Rios. He can help a major-league team.
Guest
1:39
Minasian announced as Angels GM. Should I have more hope as a Halos fan?
Keith Law
1:40
He's great. That's a great choice. Super bright, energetic, comes from a great front office in Atlanta as well. We'll have to see how he handles Trumpy Moreno, and of course there's the endless mandate to build and win at the same time there. He does inherit a far better system than Eppler did, though.
James
1:40
Broke down and subscribed to the athletic because of you. Royals question - not likely competing until 2023 at the earliest, shouldn’t they trade soler, Duffy, merrifield and any reliever? I understand keeping salvy because of what he means to kc.
Keith Law
1:41
They don't think they're that far away given the wave of pitching coming. I would trade (or have traded?) Duffy, though, and would explore the same for Merrifield given his age.
J.O.
1:41
Instead of "runner at 2nd" - why not just have a tie after 12 innings?  I mean - there would be like 10 a year.
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