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Klawchat 11/18/22
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Keith Law
1:21
Until I see evidence that elite relievers' performances over multi-year periods have changed, no.
Adam D.
1:23
How surprising has it been to you to see Farhan and company consistently miss on high draft picks? His entire philosophy is built on being to able to supply the major league club with cheap, young talent while also using some of that talent to trade for stars. Instead, seemingly everyone outside of Kyle Harrison has either stalled big time or is so far away that it might not matter when they're ready because this regime may be gone by then.
Keith Law
1:25
Casey Schmitt is in the plus column for them, and I know Patrick Bailey has had back issues, which are pretty detrimental for a catcher, but I agree their first-round picks have not been inspiring. They're all college guys (okay) but after whiffing on Hunter Bishop, a high-ceiling guy with huge exit velos and swing and miss concerns, they've gone lower ceiling and have missed there too. This year was a change in direction again, as Reggie Crawford is a very high-risk, high-ceiling college LHP coming off TJ.
Moon Man
1:26
After Adley was ROY runner-up, do you think the Birds are inclined to break camp with G-Rod in the rotation to increase his chances of taking home the hardware and bagging the extra draft pick?
Keith Law
1:26
I don't think so given how they slow-played his return from an oblique injury this year and didn't call him up to the big leagues at all.
Ben (MN)
1:26
The Twins CF was not great when Buxton was out and involved way too many Gilberto Celestino at bats. In a situation with an extremely injury prone player like that, what would be your approach to the backup CF spot? Would you plug in the next person up, prioritize a corner outfielder who can handle center for 60-80 games if needed, or something else?
Keith Law
1:26
I like your second idea, getting a COF who can handle CF.
Tom
1:26
Keith, Nats SP Jake Irvin was recently described by Eric Longenhagen as a mid rotation SP and a 45FV. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law
1:28
I'm quite a bit lower on him. Saw him in April, below average command and really scary arm action.
HH
1:28
Off-season reminder: the Australian Baseball League is up and running, and streams most of their games for free on YouTube. Witness the birth of a new market. Go Perth Heat.
Keith Law
1:28
Great tip.
Tom
1:28
Who should wsh draft with the first pick in rule 5 draft
Keith Law
1:31
No idea. I hate the rule 5 draft. The CBA in 2010 gutted it and the MLBPA missed a chance to fight for players' rights. The available player pool has very few prospects in it and the results are even worse - in the last three rule 5 drafts, I think the only decent big leaguer has been Garrett Whitlock. Akil Baddoo had one okay season and then was awful in season 2; a team with a better system probably would have outrighted him by now.
Ben (MN)
1:31
I went on a trip to Ireland this spring and went on an Irish literature kick after visiting the Irish writer's museum. I've especially enjoyed reading modern Irish authors like Kevin Barry. Do you recommend any Irish authors other than the obvious ones (Joyce, Wilde, Shaw, etc.).
Keith Law
1:31
David Mitchell, Flann O'Brien, John Banville. Plus Anna Burns's Milkman.
Chris
1:31
The Astros' farm system has been ranked by many outlets as being a bottom-five system the last few years, yet they continue to produce home-grown talent? Is there anything you have seen in their graduated prospects you think you (or any other pundits) missed while they were in the minors?
Keith Law
1:33
Who have they produced other than Peña in the last two years? It's a lot of guys who were already up and then improved in the majors, which is still a credit to the org but doesn't impact their rankings in any of our eyes - Framber Valdez is a great development story, but he hasn't counted as part of their farm system since the 2019 rankings.
Christian (Raleigh, NC)
1:33
Hi Keith --- As a fellow Agatha Christie enthusiast, I appreciate your review of 'See How They Run' and hope to see it soon. I am very much looking forward to 'Glass Onion' as well. Do you think we will see more of the classic-style whodunits in theaters and/or on TV given the success of  movies like Knives Out, etc.? I would definitely watch...
Keith Law
1:34
Yes, absolutely. The American movie industry is as risk-averse as it comes. If the budget is more than a few pennies, the movie has to be a reboot, a sequel, or a knockoff of something else successful. Or by Jordan Peele.
Josh
1:34
Of all the shortstops do you believe that Correa will age the best?
Keith Law
1:34
Yes. Helps that he's the youngest.
1:35
If you give him and Judge deals of the same length - say, 8 years - you're getting both of their age 31-35 years, but you're getting Correa's age 28-30 seasons and Judge's age 36-38 seasons.
Don Keedic
1:35
Who is the bigger injury risk: Rodon or Nimmo?
Keith Law
1:36
Oh Rodón, for sure. He's a pitcher.
Mike
1:36
After seeing his rookie year, how likely is it that Oneil Cruz reaches his ceiling? And what would that look like? Seemed like he started making adjustments towards the end of the year, giving me hope he won't be a .200 hitter
Keith Law
1:37
He was good enough in the minors that I am not less bullish on him now after a partial season in the majors that had some very high points amidst the struggles.
Samwise
1:37
Given that players on megadeals mostly aren't worth the amount they're paid in their final years, but also that you're not going to land one without a willingness to commit those extra years – how far would you be comfortable going on Judge (if you had the money/need)?  Six years at a high AAV, understanding that the last 2 might be rough?  Seven?
Keith Law
1:37
I'm fine with six years with that understanding. It's the talk of eight to ten years that makes me roll my eyes. That's talk -radio stuff.
Prospect hound
1:37
What are your current thoughts about Matt McLain?  Average gonna be there?  Can he be above avg reg?
Keith Law
1:38
Fringe regular at this point. Not enough impact and definitely not a SS.
Francis Ford Coppola
1:38
You’re not a huge fan of my first two “The Godfather” films? I believe they’re not on your list of the top movies from the 1970s.
Keith Law
1:38
I don't recall ever posting a list of my favorite movies of the 1970s.
Baseball: It's Fun!
1:38
Many predictions see Adam Macko as a future lockdown reliever. What in particular holds him back from being a starter, besides durability? Is it something mechanical you think the Blue Jays (who seem to view him as a starter) could unlock, or is relief a surer bet?
Keith Law
1:38
Durability is by far the biggest reason. I also don't think he has the command.
Jim
1:38
Keith, thanks as always.  Any thoughts (or care) about who's going to be the House Minority leader?  (And nice shade by Pelosi saying she served under 4 Presidents when it's been since Clinton...)
Keith Law
1:38
I'm glad it will be someone under 60.
Jay
1:39
Should the Angels trade Ohtani this winter?  I don't see a realistic way they're contenders  in 2023, and he seems like a guy looking to bolt for more successful pastures.  I can't fathom what a reasonable return for him would be.
Keith Law
1:39
They should, but they won't. I did hear, sort of third-hand, that he produces so much revenue for the team that no trade could make financial sense for them. And I believe that.
Gandalf
1:39
Who are a couple injury-prone or injury-history free agents that you see as a good gamble for 2023?  Heaney, Conforto, Brantley?
Keith Law
1:40
Yep, all three were on my top 50 free agents ranking. Conforto does worry me with his lower exit velocities in 2021 ... this was a guy who needed a bit better contact quality, not worse.
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