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Klawchat 11/30/17
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Ed
1:49
Love all of your work Keith. Is Hudson Potts being overlooked as a prospect ? At 18 he had the best fielding % in the MWL and clearly was able to make adjustments at the plate in the second half. What should we look for in High A this year as the numbers will be inflated in the Cal league? Increased patience at the plate?
Keith Law
1:49
Solid prospect but fielding percentage is beyond worthless for minor leaguers.
Todd
1:50
Was at the Braves season ticket deal today where McGuirk talked about a “Rogue Employee in the Dominican” today.  I asked to be sure I heard it right but that’s what I heard.  Thoughts ?
Keith Law
1:50
Someone needs to ask McGuirk what he knew and when he knew it.
Ryan
1:50
Would you recommend Ex Libris for fans of heavier games?
Keith Law
1:50
It's medium-weight. I like it quite a bit.
Justin R
1:50
Wouldn't the best Red Sox move be to find a low-cost 1B with some power and assume Benitendi/Betts/Boegaarts hit for more power in 2018?
Keith Law
1:50
Hosmer is a terrible fit for Boston; they need power and he has never slugged .500.
JR
1:50
I know there's still a month left (which means 20 more books for you to read), but what were the 3-5 most enjoyable books you read this year?
Keith Law
1:52
I Contain Multitudes. Evicted. Betaball. The Erstwhile (part 2 of The Vorrh trilogy). The Fifth Season. Mister Monkey. The Underground Railroad. Not a Scientist. The Last Days of Night. The Cooperstown Casebook.
Justin R
1:52
What would be your ideal tax plan for the US?
Keith Law
1:54
I would prefer to see tax reform that simplifies the tax code, reducing the government's cost to collect it and society's cost to calculate and file it, rather than this current bill that is a giant sop to corporate and wealthy donors and that ignores the recent history of such tax cuts. (The GOP is tweeting how the JFK tax cut boosted the economy. They're full of shit: The top marginal rate was 91% before that tax cut. It's 39.6% today. That makes all the difference.)
Matt
1:54
What about cortisone shots? Players take them all the time yet no one says anything. It's a steroid.
Keith Law
1:55
Of course. It's a legal steroid. Is LASIK a PED? (PEP?) We draw arbitrary lines to suit our purposes.
Jshep12
1:55
Adderall is the most often prescribed amphetamine. 10% of MLB players are using it because it is prescribed for their ADHD. Only 4-6% of the population is prescribed this drug. Is this a problem? Is this a problem MLB can do anything about?
Keith Law
1:55
If you can go to Dr. Nick Riviera and get a diagnosis, and MLB grants you a therapeutic use exemption, you're clear. They could crack down on TUEs, but I doubt they'd do so, or that the union would stand idly by.
Craig
1:56
Does Nate Pearson have a chance to make your next top 100 prospects?
Keith Law
1:56
No.
Jshep12
1:56
So, based on what you said about Hoffman, does Rivera deserve to be in the HOF?
Keith Law
1:57
These two are not comparable, and people who ask me this sort of question are guilty of not doing even the most basic homework. Rivera threw 194 more innings and gave up 32 fewer ER, despite pitching in the AL East. Hoffman spent his entire Padres' career in pitchers' parks, often with park factors at -10%. They're not the same. If you think they're the same or even close, then wake up - the saves fairy is just something your parents made up so you'd feel better about the 9th inning.
Rahn
1:58
Do you see the Pirates' prospect pool thinning? And can you give me someone to keep my eye on this year that you will be monitoring as well?
Keith Law
1:58
The system as a whole had a down year; other than Keller, all their major guys stagnated or took steps backward. Still a lot of ability in the system, but they have numerous guys who'll need a strong 2018 to maintain prospect value or stay on track for the majors.
Gorman
1:58
Why do you need three pitches to start, but only 2 to relieve?
Keith Law
1:59
Oversimplifying a little, but relievers don't face batters twice in a game, and can generally survive with platoon splits where starters can't. If you're a starter and can't get opposite-side hitters out consistently, well, you're not a starter.
Phil
1:59
What is Gohara's ultimate upside? He's the best Braves pitching prospect I've seen during rebuild to-date IMO and by fairly large margin
Keith Law
1:59
#2 starter upside. And 350 pound upside too. Gotta worry about the long-term health there.
I love Gohara as a prospect though. That's just pointing out the obvious downside.
Heather
1:59
Cardinals are planning on going with at least two rookies in their rotation (choose from among Flaherty, Reyes, and Weaver).  Can you have two rookies pitching that much, and still consider yourself a true playoff contender?
Keith Law
2:00
Sure. Why not? Better question might be if those rookies are good enough, but I don't see rookies as automatically worse than veterans.
Gorman
2:00
Not trying to be flippant on Kemp, but doesn't he at least profile as a slightly above average player on offense?
Keith Law
2:01
I have his Fangraphs page open now. 0.0 Batting Runs, which is league average, but doesn't account for position. For a corner outfielder, that's below average. It's below average for a DH too.
Adam Trask
2:01
Speaking of pitchers and running, I heard that Aroldis Chapman used to beat Billy Hamilton in spring training sprints. Could that be true?
Keith Law
2:01
I've heard that too. Also was told way back when that Clay Buchholz beat Jacoby Ellsbury in sprints in instructs.
Chris
2:01
Can we expect a year-end list for music this year?  I miss your album reviews.
Keith Law
2:02
I do them every December after the winter meetings, because there's still new music coming every Friday.
KEvin Bo
2:02
Hey Keith, how in the world does it make sense for the supposed cash strapped Mets to be thinking about allocating their "minimal" resources to a 1B. Why not let Smith play it out as a cheap homegrown option.
Keith Law
2:02
I wonder if that was meant to motivate Smith to work on conditioning, or if someone took a quote out of context. You're right that it's foolish, and also, the best thing they could do for all their young players is already done: They fired the manager.
Brett
2:02
Keith, I've always admired your intelligence, but your above comment to Drew has me shaking my head.  Some person named "Drew" says the State Department is the worst it has been in 35 years, without citing any evidence to prove this claim, and you buy into it? Dangerous.
Keith Law
2:03
I 'buy into it?' Overreact much? This is a chat, not a fucking grand jury hearing.
Steve
2:03
Should Franken step down?
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