JotCast | Klawchat 2/20/24

Klawchat 2/20/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Holly

1:44

On the Nats' writeup, no mention of Mason Denaburg. Is he still a prospect at all?

Keith Law

1:45

He walked 49 guys in 36 innings in low A last year, mostly in relief. I imagine he's a release candidate at this point.

Alex

1:45

Can't say I was surprised by Atlanta's ranking – as you said, they traded everybody. On the other hand, as an Atlanta fan, it seems to me that you're *supposed* to trade your prospects to improve the major league roster. Are there any of Atlanta's major moves that you would seriously question?

Keith Law

1:47

I think giving up Malloy for Joe Jimenez was an overpay. And I believe I said at the time that I wasn't convinced Sean Murphy would be better than William Contreras, certainly not enough to justify trading everything they did. But overall, no, I think Anthopoulos has done an excellent job, including his big trades.

Tom

1:47

Can you give some detailed thoughts on the Red Sox royals Schreiber trade?

Keith Law

1:47

The David Sandlin prospect writeup is now in the Red Sox top 20. No-brainer trade for them.

1:47

Two completely unrelated questions for you...
1) What level of panic would you have if you were Mike Elias regarding the rotation regarding Bradish and Means? Is it worth shelling out money for another starter or making another trade?
2) I'm considering a job offer in Newark, Delaware. How do you like living in the state? What would you recommend for food and activities for a second visit on home scouting?

Keith Law

1:51

I wouldn't panic, but they still have more position players in AAA/majors than they can use and I would at least see what trading some combination of them - Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, etc. - might get back in a starter. More worried about Bradish.

As for Delaware, it's great overall. Lots to do here, great little downtown in Wilmington with some fantastic restaurants (Bardea, Le Cavalier, La Fia, two food halls), two art-house cinemas, two venues for concerts and traveling theater, low cost of living for the mid-Atlantic. Public schools are underfunded, though, and there hasn't been great appetite to remedy that. Check out Winterthur, Longwood Gardens (just over the line in PA), & the Nemours Estate.

Egan

1:51

What are you expectations for Brandon Barriera this year development wise? Future rotation arm?

Keith Law

1:51

Let's see how the body looks. Had high upside in 2022, has supposedly shed most of the extra weight he put on last year, but when a guy lets himself go like that I want to see the commitment to his conditioning.

John Sterling

1:51

(on the Dominguez v Spencer Jones question) I know you avoid being influenced by other expert rankings, but I know you also do take in information from other analysts/experts. Help me understand why there seems to be some uncommon divergence about two high profile prospects in same org who both spent most of last summer in the Somerset Patriots outfield. Thanks.

Keith Law

1:51

I assume we're valuing different things.

1:52

Suppose Samuel Basallo were a solid average defensive 1B, and not a catcher. Where do you suppose he'd rank in top 100?

Keith Law

1:52

Middle, probably 40-60 range.

Adam D.

1:52

Obviously without naming names, have you ever found yourself gravitating away from a scouting source after too many reports that turned out to be mostly untrue?

Keith Law

1:52

Yes.

1:52

Have contracts to pre-arb players started to turn in the direction that they aren't actually good for teams? The news of the potential Alvarez extension got me thinking that the Mets would need to be getting so much value on the back end to give up the cheap early years. They way they are structured based on actual cash basically aligns with what these guys would be making anyway, so all the teams are actually getting is the ability to have the player for more prime years without having to commit to post prime years (the value of which we dont know yet), but the cost of that is giving up years where they are actually cheap (the value of which we do know). Am I over thinking this?

Keith Law

1:53

I don't think the early year salaries in those deals are close to high enough to make these a negative for the teams. If they're right, they're getting like $30 million of production (or more) for $2 million.

Andrew

1:53

Anything in Elly's rookie year that makes you concerned about him long-term? Is it all about contact with him?

Keith Law

1:54

Yes, primarily about contact. Could end up in CF rather than SS but I expect he'd be plus there.

Bobby

1:54

Who do you predict will win ROY in NL and AL?

Keith Law

1:55

I'll do full predictions in late March when we see who's actually getting the playing time. Just a stab right now, I'd say Caminero and Noelvi.

dallas

1:55

Do you believe there is a flaw in stockpiling middle infield prospects like the pirates and Cleveland have done over the years? It seems like (with PGH) especially all their minor leaguers have the same profile.

Keith Law

1:55

There's no flaw in that specifically, but maybe there's a flaw if they're all 5'7" and unlikely to stay at short?

Robert

1:55

Putting aside the economics of whether or not public financing of sports stadiums makes sense, what do you think of White Sox ownership asking the public for $1 billion to pay for a new stadium, when they are one of only two franchises who've never offered a $100M contract to a player?

Keith Law

1:56

I don't see a connection between those two. The purpose of public subsidies for private enterprise is economic development, not helping the team win. The economic development doesn't justify the subsidies, of course, but that's a separate question.

1:56

Did his first year performance decrease Volpe's best-case ceiling for you?

Keith Law

1:56

No. He didn't belong in the majors to start the year.

Pool

1:56

Who is the international prospect that will be stateside for the first time this season that you are most excited to get eyes on?

Keith Law

1:56

Felnin Celesten.

Morgan (NY)

1:56

You buying into Stanton’s body transformation as a harbinger of athleticism and renewed success at the plate?

Keith Law

1:57

No, it's a function of health, not conditioning.

James

1:57

It's spring training. I'm in the worst shape of my life. Any thought as to why the Boras 4 hasn't signed yet? Can the Cubs really go with PCA and Morel at 3B instead of Bellinger/Chapman and expect to contend?

Keith Law

1:57

Yes, they can expect to contend in that division. I have a feeling they end up re-signing Bellinger though.

James

1:57

Ever play Code Names? We've been playing it a lot lately, lots of fun.

Keith Law

1:57

Yes, solid party game. Not my favorite of the genre but I'll always play it.

Marlins Fan

1:57

Marlins have a bunch of (very) young and raw 18/19 year old pitchers outside of Meyer/White like Juan De La Cruz, Walin Castillo, Karson Milbrandt, Julio Mendez, Lester Nin, Damelvi Tineo. Any of those that you like outside of De La Cruz who you ranked fairly high?

Keith Law

1:57

Milbrandt was up there too.

Guest

1:58

I assume Caleb Durbin and Tyler Hardman are nothing more than org players? The latter not even getting an NRI is a bad sign.

Keith Law

1:58

that's how I view them.

Connecting…