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Klawchat 2/22/18
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Keith Law
1:40
Size and reduced velocity over the course of 2017. When I asked around this winter about him, my top 100, what other teams thought of Atlanta's system, I got fairly consistent responses that he'd slipped and also been passed by several other arms in their system (like Wilson).
Bort
1:41
With Honeywell almost certainly out for 2018, doesn't it make even more sense for the Rays to trade Chris Archer?
Keith Law
1:41
"Almost certainly?" Look, I get that he could have just blown out his elbow, but that statement is not accurate right now.
John
1:41
I'm curious about the Megan McArdle thing that you circulated earlier this week.  Tried following the links, and couldn't find anything she had necessarily done wrong.  Do you have any insight?  The accusation is that she made up a number, but the "proof" was her saying that it was in the middle of a hypothetical.  If true, then that's not wrong.
Keith Law
1:42
That was her ex post rationalization for it. She's also written repeatedly about topics like health care reform without disclosing her numerous conflicts of interest. It was a terrible hire in the WaPo/NYT editorial pages' race to the bottom.
Seth
1:42
what do you think drury's potential is? everyone keeps saying he's filled with "untapped potential" ... what say you?
Keith Law
1:43
Low-OBP but high average with some pop, plays 2nd (poorly) and 3rd (more than adequately), everyday guy for some teams, eventually a good bench player for the Yanks.
M.D. Pepper
1:43
Hi Keith, reports from SB Nation noted that Jahmai Jones may be getting some time at second base, which Jahmai somewhat denied. Would it be of value for the Angels if he made that transition and could he be capable of doing so since he played the position in high school?
Keith Law
1:43
Not sure when he did that in HS ... sure, it'll raise his value, because I think in that system his odds of staying in CF are low given the presence of other CF like Marsh.
Adam
1:43
Even if the bat never comes around, is there still a chance for Javier Guerra to make the majors as a defensive replacement? Or is the bat currently that bad?
Keith Law
1:44
Bat hasn't looked the same since the trade and medical issue. Not sure if it's medication or something else, but he's looked much slower at the plate.
CapePorpoise
1:44
I’m trying to understand your NYT subscription cancellation. Given the number of links you’ve given, I’m assuming you agree it’s still one of the best news organizations. Are one columnist’s views sufficient cause to require your action?
Keith Law
1:46
Not "one columnist," and I think I made that fairly clear. This is Stephens and Douthat and Norton (since axed, but really, nice process, guys) and to a lesser extent brooks. It's articles normalizing neo-Nazis and giving excessive voice to Trump voters. And they've run their share of pseudoscience claptrap too, like Danny Hakim's well-reviled piece attacking GMOs contrary to all available science.
Mikey B
1:46
Rays just traded Dickerson to the Pirates. FYI.
Keith Law
1:46
Well there you have it.
Dr. Bob
1:46
Man, did you get hammered by Padres' fans for stating the obvious about SD signing Hosmer. They should be able to see the same things that we all see. What do you think their motive was?
Keith Law
1:47
Plenty of rational Padres fans came out to support me, but the trolls are the loudest, unfortunately. It's amusing to me how thoroughly a fan base can convince itself of a player's intangibles even when they have had no direct contact with the player in his career.
Raj
1:47
Why do you think Matt Chapman was never mentioned as a top their prospect during his time in the minors? I understand the questions how his hit tool, but wouldn't his above average glove and power neutralize the concerns about his hit tool?
Keith Law
1:47
No, not given the swing and miss rates.
Pat D
1:48
I've never come closer to telling people I like and respect to fuck off because of one issue than I have in the last week.  I'm just so sick of the "evil people are going to do evil things" excuse while the person who says that engages in nothing but fallacies and false equivalences.  Time to just cut off contact, right?  Also, isn't it sad to know you'll never be a great patriot like Wayne LaPierre?
Keith Law
1:48
If we can identify evil people so easily, how about we just screen every would-be gun buyer for evil. If you're evil, you don't get a gun. Problem solved!
Anthony
1:48
Are you finally ready to say that Soroka has a higher ceiling or floor than Allard? You’ve said no to both back in September but now your rankings show different.
Keith Law
1:48
How dare I change my opinions on players. In the future, I'll be sure to keep all rankings perfectly static.
Will in Vero
1:49
How did Dallas Baptist get so good?
Keith Law
1:49
Recruited very well locally, especially since they announced they were moving up to D1 maybe a decade ago (or longer? jeez).
Patrick
1:49
With Solak dealt it came out that the Yankees were pushing him with Frazier in their offer to Pitt for Cole. Do you think those 2 were a better offer than the 4 Pitt ultimately took from Houston?
Keith Law
1:49
I do not. I'm not a big Solak fan.
Brian
1:49
As a Phillies fan, the plight of Mark Appel and Mickey Moniak has me wondering: when top 5 guys end up being busts is there a commonality in terms of what scouts and people like yourself got wrong pre-draft? Is it about certain tools or focusing too much on one element of the evaluation, etc?
Keith Law
1:50
Don't think you could find two players as different as those two. Moniak seemed at the time and seems still today like a bit of a money-saver option in a draft without a clear 1. Appel was the clear 1 that year, or at worst a great 2, and given what the Astros had available at the time he was a good pick.
Exit Velocity Proves I’m Good
1:50
Is there 25+ HR power in Josh Bell?
Keith Law
1:50
I believe there is, even without the juiced ball.
Josh in DC
1:50
I haven't read your book, but I will eventually. Do you have any positive thoughts about so-called intangibles (say, leadership ability) in the book?
Keith Law
1:50
No, my book focuses on things that actually exist and that we can at least try to measure.
David
1:51
Honest question - would you turn down the opportunity to visit President Trump? I've thought about this a lot. Does meeting him CHANGE anything (for better or worse)? So would it be all that bad to meet him, just for the experience? Curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law
1:51
I probably would turn it down. I can't see any good coming of it.
Chris
1:51
I know youre on hiatus from TC, but just a heads up the Volt Bros are on tonight...
Keith Law
1:52
Olympics tonight. I don't control the remote even if I wanted to.
Matt
1:52
Keith, it seems like every year there's a college pitcher I've never heard of who starts getting a ton of buzz as a top 5 pick. This year's model appears to be Shane McLanahan. Aside from being small, what else could keep McLanahan from success in the pros?
Keith Law
1:52
I think that's the biggest knock on him. He's listed at 165, I think. That's skinny.
John
1:52
I'm not a second amendment guy -- in fact, I've never touched  a gun in my life -- but I disagree with you on guns vs. "mental illness."  The Virginia Tech rampage was done entirely with handguns.  If there's someone who has the psychological problems that would lead to one of these shootings, banning assault rifles won't make a big difference.  It would do more good to address the people with psyochotic/antisocial issues.  Your point about using too broad a brush on "metal illness" is valid, but it doesn't follow to ban a type of weapon.
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