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Klawchat 2/22/19
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Keith Law
5:11
I have pointed out issues with deliveries for years - scouts have been evaluating pitchers' mechanics since long before I was in the industry, probably since before I was born - and this is no different. I don't use "biomechanical data," whatever you might think that is, in these scouting reports.
Andrew
5:11
How nervous should I be about Soroka's shoulder?
Keith Law
5:11
See above, but yeah, I'm concerned.
Marques
5:11
If you ran the Padres,  would you pursue external pitching or wait for your system to come up at this point?
Keith Law
5:12
I'd pursue external pitching this summer and next winter. Let some of the A-ball prospects advance a little and they'll have a bit more trade value.
Buckner 86
5:12
I looked back on 2017 & 2018 and never saw anything on Josh James in your Houston top 10. Can you give a little write up about him here?  Thanks
Keith Law
5:13
He's in this year's top 100 and he's in this piece from September that explains why he went from borderline non-prospect to potential mid-rotation starter: https://klaw.me/2p5ChRO
John
5:13
Do you think steroids are still prevalent in baseball? And if so, how widespread would you guess usage to be?
Keith Law
5:14
I do not ... except for international free agents. The testing results that I've heard indicate that many July 2nd prospects have at least tested positive for banned substances. The % depends on where you draw the line of 'prospects' but I have heard major names coming up positive in recent years.
Bobby C
5:14
I read that Harper has no offers for 300 mil. now. Surely he won't sign for less than Machado?
Keith Law
5:14
Can't imagine he would.
5:15
I think signing second is also the way to 'win' that particular competition.
Guest
5:15
Even aside from Harper/Kimbrel/Keuchel, are there way more free agents than normal dangling at this date?
Keith Law
5:15
I believe so but I haven't actually counted/compared.
Tim
5:15
Should people feel dirty listening to Michael Jackson, R. Kelly, watching Polanski or Allen movies, etc?  Is the solution to stop listening/watching?
Keith Law
5:16
Depends on your comfort level. I actually feel like Jackson's is the easiest call, as he's no longer alive to benefit from someone purchasing or listening to his music.
David
5:17
Do you think Eloy starts after spending 2 weeks in AAA?
Keith Law
5:17
Yes. He's ready too.
Nick
5:17
Who did you come to see in Houston, and how did they look?
Keith Law
5:18
JJ Goss, who looked great, and Matt Thompson, who has to be hurt; his was in the mid-80s by the end of his outing. I haven't had a ton of time to write this week up - and Bobby Witt's doubleheader today got banged so I'm not sure I'll see him.
Casey
5:19
When the Cardinals drafted Scott Hurst and Kramer Robertson with their first two picks in 2017 I don't think anyone thought they'd be stars but would at least be useful bench players. Is that still the projection for them or are they non prospects at this point?
Keith Law
5:20
Hurst maybe - he was hurt a ton last year, and was too old for Peoria, but I don't want to write him off just yet. Robertson is probably an NP.
Mark
5:20
How far out are we before we see the bulk of the Padres pitching prospects?
Keith Law
5:21
Paddack, Allen, Nix all see the majors this year. The best guys like Gore, Morejon, and Patino are 2021 and beyond. Well, Morejon could get there faster, but they've been cautious with him since he's had some minor arm stuff.
JR
5:21
You see Aubrey Huff's twitter fit after MM signed and people came after him based on one of his tweets? He specifically called you out as the "poster child of new era of pointless stat geeks" and said give him 25 guys with heart, grit and determination. How has no one handed him a GM job yet since he has it all figured out?
Keith Law
5:21
I saw. He wanted attention. Meh.
FA
5:21
What’s the last book you read ? And what non fiction and fiction books would you recommend? Thx
Keith Law
5:22
If you look below this post on the blog, you'll see a review of the last non-fiction book I read. The last novel I read was Le Carre's A Murder of Quality.
Ryan
5:22
Klaw, how reliable do you think the advanced defensive metrics are for past players?
Keith Law
5:22
Directionally correct. Doubt they're all that precise without play-by-play data including ball location.
Ken
5:22
Would a good solution to the Guerrero situation be to end the separate service time calculations for the minors and MLB and replace it with something like 8 years of combined control between the two?
Keith Law
5:23
I love that idea in theory, although 1) owners would have a fit and 2) it would dramatically change how we draft and develop players. Those unintended consequences deserve more consideration.
JR
5:23
Twins got a steal with Marwin at 2/21MM right?
Keith Law
5:23
Yes. I view that contract as a sign that something's amiss in the market.
David
5:23
Please help me understand. Jo Adell is a 6-3 / 215 super freak athlete with throws 97, has a 44-inch vert and led the nation in HRs. And a team like Philly drafts a slap hitting 4th OFer over him. Why don't teams use the draft to take the best talent available and then trust their org to develop them? Has a team ever built a championship roster by drafting league average or below low upside starters in the Top 10?
Keith Law
5:24
Adell wasn't very good before that spring, and then had some kind of arm issue too. The Phillies' first-round woes are a separate issue, but I wouldn't use Adell as your counterexample. I'm surprised the Phils haven't overhauled their draft approach, though.
Pat
5:24
Mike Elias is essentially doing 2 jobs at the moment: GM of the Orioles, and Scouting Director of the Orioles. How long can that keep going? Seems like these are 2 separate 60+ hours a week jobs.
Keith Law
5:25
Devil's advocate: If you were the Orioles' GM, how much would you really need to watch the major-league club this spring? They don't have many prospects near the majors, and they don't have a lot of difficult roster decisions. Plus watching that team every day might drain Elias' soul.
Jeff
5:25
So many Braves questions!  Do think think Fried or Gohara is more likely to see more time as a starter this year?
Keith Law
5:25
Gohara but I like both quite a bit.
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