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Klawchat 2/28/19
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Keith Law
2:44
I think performance will usually tell you.
2:45
Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you'd rather move him sooner rather than later.
John
2:45
What did you eat at Xochi?  Sorry if you've posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law
2:45
The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.
Mark
2:45
You've probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me... Why shouldn't teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don't think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law
2:46
My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
2:47
Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he'd hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there's more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.
Paul
2:47
I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law
2:48
Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I'm planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.
Scott
2:48
Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law
2:48
Is it out yet? I will when it's available.
Craig R.
2:48
Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law
2:49
I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you're described, he's ranked that way on the list.
Mike
2:49
Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law
2:49
thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC's The Inquiry.
Zach
2:49
Isn’t it  “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law
2:50
The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.
Robby
2:50
As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law
2:50
I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).
Jeff
2:50
If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law
2:51
Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.
Tim
2:51
Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law
2:51
I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.
Joe
2:51
Everyone makes fun of the "best shape of his life" reports every spring...but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law
2:52
I like your point although I don't know that this makes Bote's projections any different.
Joshue
2:52
It's unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law
2:52
I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
I don't see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.
Nick
2:52
A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market...what if MLB decided that teams who didn't win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law
2:53
Yes - I'd like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I've come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that's untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.
Joel
2:53
Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law
2:54
The one who made my top 100, of course.
Brian
2:54
To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage...wouldn't people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law
2:55
Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
2:56
Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That's a lot of full diapers over nothing.
Tim
2:56
Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law
2:56
I would be very surprised.
2:57
They didn't call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.
Jesus
2:57
Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law
2:58
That would be the loaded question fallacy, "Jesus." Kindly take the door on your left.
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